Gray-haired poker TRs: Living the WSOP dream

At this point I'm not taking a break because of AK losing to AQ. I am taking a break because I am a little burnt out. I don't think think the time off will be lengthy.

For what it's worth, I forgot to mention it in my last post, I did listen to Nick Schulman's new radio gig on Sirius radio last night (it's a six-show trial). I'm a Schulman fan, and the first episode was fine. But it lacked the magic of his Main Event booth pairing with Ali Nejad. It sounds like there could be some big name poker pros appearing on the next episode, so I'll keep an open mind. I hope it works out since Schulman is such an interesting guy and seems so knowledgeable of all things poker, but a poker show on radio targeting a more mainstream audience seems like a tough nut to crack. Schulman seems reluctant to make the show about him, which while I respect his humility I think is a mistake since he has so many stories that he can tell if he so chooses.

to rp's later point, if he's feeling burnt out then he should take a break tiil he's feeling refreshed, but in general I'm a big +1 to your post. All my friends that are pro/semi pro mtt just want to get the volume to get on top of the variance as quickly as they can.

It's different for a hobbyist & bankroll is a thing too, but the overall point still remains. The cards will turn & the more you play the closer the deep run should hopefully be

Everything is wonderful

I'm still mostly in poker silent mode, but poker is starting to creep into my thinking a little bit

Watched the World Cup Final today. Kind of a tough game to view. Spain absolutely dominated the game, yet the score was 0-0 at the end of regulation time despite Spain outshooting Argentina something like 324-0 (the 324 is an exaggeration, the 0 is not an overstatement as Argentina did not achieve its first shot on goal until the 115th minute, which I would not have thought possible). Spain fans must have been beside themselves at all the opportunities they had that failed to put the ball into the net. Argentina fans must have been beside themselves at the utter lack of scoring chances and complete inability to possess the ball. Spain finally scored in the second period of extra time, so the better team won. Finally. Glad it didn't get decided by penalty kicks, which I think is a ludicrous way to decide a champion.

Tonight, I finished the fiction book I was reading. I pulled two new books off my to read area of my bookshelf. The first was Modern Poker Theory: Building An Unbeatable Strategy Based on GTO Principles by Michael Acevedo, which was a birthday gift from my brother and sister-in law. I had no intention of reading the book right now as I recharge my poker batteries. But I wanted to see if this is something I will want to read sometime in the future. I quickly skimmed the book. Man, it looks like a tough slog. High-end math and tons of GTO charts. It may be good stuff, but it is definitely tedious stuff. I'm not sure I will eventually want to read it cover to cover. Maybe as I come across certain spots in tournaments I play or poker streams I watch, I will find the appropriate section in the book and study it.

Instead, I started reading the other book I selected, which is Checkmate: Genius, Lies, Ambition, And The Biggest Scandal In Chess by Ben Mezrich.

Poker is starting to slowly find its way back into my brain. For some reason late tonight I was thinking about when is the ideal time to show up to play in a WSOP event. No idea why this showed up on tonight's Bingo card. In WSOP 2019, 2024 and 2025 I always showed up in time for "Shuffle up and deal." In my seat for the very first hand. Every time. Without exception and not open to debate. During WSOP 2026, I baby late registered quite a bit. No, I did not take my seat for the first time in level 9. What I did do was register very late in level 1 or sometime in level 2. I think arriving mid to late level 2 is ideal and is something I will do most of the time in WSOP 2027.

I have two reasons for this ...

Reason 1: I am not a morning person. I do not care at all for 10:00 a.m. starts. Poker is not meant to be a morning endeavor if you ask me. Happy morning people are not to be trusted in my world. A 10:00 start is when I meet with my accountant or attorney. It is not a respectable time to start a poker tournament. Would a Texas road gambler from days of old agree to start play at 10:00 a.m.? I don't think so! Start late, end late is way more in my wheelhouse.

Reason 2: When you show up on time for the start of level 1 of Day 1, you are often four-handed. I'm not afraid to play short-handed, but it is a completely different animal than nine-handed. You have to play a wider range of hands. You also need to pay careful attention to when the table starts to fill up and you have to adjust accordingly. Again, I am capable of doing this, but playing four-handed when the blinds are just 100/200/200 doesn't seem especially fun to me, and it is a little difficult to keep myself from overdoing the aggression. I'd rather show up a little late and take my seat at a table that is very close to full. I suppose an argument can be made that this runs the risk of missing out on the really bad players, but even the really horrible players are still around late in level 2. Plus, what I noticed is that a player has a big stack in level 2 from a cooler and they decide to try to be table captain around the time when I show up, which has all kinds of great potential for me. Or you get a really aggressive player who has been pushing the table around, it works and they get even more hyper aggressive and are ripe for the picking by a player who plays good cards.

In any event, I think a big take away from my WSOP 2026 is that baby late registration is the way for me to go in the future.

Too funny.

It really seemed like Argentina was playing for PKs, which was hampered when they went down a man. I know that Spain dominated, but I thought Argentina played fairly well defensively and while it was a lot of shots they didn't seem like big threats. I haven't played soccer in a long time, so what do I know.

To my earlier post about not taking a lot of time off, obviously do what is best for you and if you need a break then you should definitely take one. It sounds like you think about the game a lot, so a break isn't always a break, which is why I said not to take a long one as you'll be thinking about it anyway.

Fully endorse. Not only is jaka’s content strong, the community really separates it from the herd. So much so that I never had a chance to meet any of you other than TJ. Hopefully rectified next year!

Enjoyed the thread thank you for all of the effort that went into it. I lost AK

Fortunately my AK>AA day 2 of the main this year made up for it!

I was glad to see you embrace late reg a little and it’s an excellent topic for debate. When is the optimum time to enter a tournament?

It’s a question that I don’t think has any right or wrong answer and depending on who you ask you’ll get a lot of different takes on it.

Personally I do like playing short handed, especially in fixed limit mixed games so that’s the main reason why I reg those on time mostly.

In big bet games I look at the structure and if I think it starts too deep then I’ll go later.

I’ve also tried max late and 1 or 2 levels before end of registration. Its something I will keep experimenting with but would love to hear others thoughts on the subject.

For me I think the decision is between the incredible gifts that are sometimes on offer in the first few levels if you’re lucky with table draw and card distribution vs the benefit of being mentally fresher later on in the day when the stacks are shallower in terms of bb and the pots really start to matter

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Other things being equal, I always prefer being in my seat for hand 1.

Tournament poker can very much be thought of as a race for the worst players’ money… and they have deep chips at the start.

I came up online playing heads up and short handed, so I’m perfectly comfortable 4-9 handed. And you can establish a LAG psycho image, to get you paid when you screw down and tighten up.

But late reg isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I don’t usually like max-late-reg’ing, but I can see it being a time saving strategy.

I think in WSOP 2027 in an event like the Colossus where there are four Day 1s with $500 entry fees and 50,000 starting stacks it would be interesting one day for me to show up around level 7 (500/1,000/1,000). Thats still 50 BBs. Plenty of play. And I'd be armed with re-buy money if necessary. I don't know that this is better or worse than showing up level 1 for the first hand, but I think it would be a fun exercise to try once.

Still searching for poker content that will excite me

Tonight, I finished reading Checkmate: Genius, Lies, Ambition, And The Biggest Scandal In Chess. Really interesting book. It's about a chess cheating scandal that may or may not have occurred. There is strong suspicion. There is no hard proof. You know, a lot like a poker scandal that was or wasn't when on a 10c-10h-9c-3h board there was an all-in bet that gets correctly (correctly? Impossibly?) called by Jc-4h.

If you'd like a poker book like that told by a master story teller, then I think you'll still enjoy reading Checkmate. Very entertaining book. You don't have to be a chess player/fan to enjoy the book. Is this where I do a trip report about my being the three-time runner-up and one-time champion of the annual chess championship during my four years of middle school? I'll spare you the tedious details.

On the poker viewing/learning front, I'm still searching for something to grab my attention. I don't feel like going down the solver rabbit hole at the moment (been there, done that, but nowhere near mastery). I don't feel like a training site at the moment (been there, done that, but nowhere near mastery). Right now, I want something that is equal parts fun and insightful. I've run out of lengthy poker streams of tournaments from the past year (i.e. 10-11 hour daily streams from the WSOP Paradise/Bahamas Main Event).

Watching poker Twitch streams seems like half a good idea. On the negative side, are there Twitch streamers who are really good at showing the ideal way to play NLH poker? On the positive side, I can just watch 50% for the fun of it, 25% to consider creative concepts and see how they work, and 25% to see what doesn't work/isn't a good idea. Like I said, half a good idea.

The fact that I am sort of searching for poker content means I am somewhat getting over my post-WSOP hangover. The fact that I don't want to do the tedious grind type stuff, means I'm not yet fully recovered.

I'm looking to strike poker oil. So far no geysers. Just dry wells.

This Tuesday (as in tonight) and next Tuesday we will see edited content from the WSOP Main Event on display on ESPN2, which while entertaining isn't really conducive to deep learning since a lot of context is lost. The final 9 will air August 3-5, which I'll watch but I hate the fact that it will be spread over three nights. I guess that will be the type of small bite sizes that appeals to casual, home game poker fans.

My review of tonight's edited Main Event content on ESPN2 ... I'm close to fully recovered from my post-WSOP hangover ... I think I've come up with a new poker plan that is potentially equal parts fun and studious

I watched the two hours of edited Main Event action shown on ESPN2 tonight and I thought it was pretty boring. Actually, I thought it was extremely boring. Maybe that is too harsh a criticism of ESPN2's content since I had watched the streams in real time, so the action in the edited episodes was pretty redundant for me. It's probably just fine for the casual poker fan (ESPN2's target audience) who didn't watch the live (with delay) streams. Not sure that I'll watch any more of the edited content. Actually, I'm pretty sure I won't watch anymore edited content.

I will obviously watch the three days of live content when The Main Event Final Table returns to action in early August. Prediction: I think Lucas Jumalon will run over the table.

Once I was done watching the WSOP on ESPN2 tonight, I started reading a new book called Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise Of American Sports Gambling. Not with an eye on poker (that's not what the book is about). Just for fun.

Given I am on a roll reading books the past week, I decided earlier today to order a couple of poker books written by Alexander Fitzgerald.

I chose these books because they do not sound like they will be heavy on GTO charts. I don't know for sure if this is the case, but I'll find out when the books arrive and I start reading them. The game plan is to read slowly, which is not the norm for me. Normally when I read books, I am apparently an extremely, extremely fast reader based upon how long I take to finish a book compared to how long other people tell me it takes for them to do so. Typically, I finish a book from start to finish in a day to a day-and-a-half. It is not unusual for me to read 6-8 hours straight. With these poker books, my goal is to read a chapter and stop, so I can think about what I've read, possibly go back and re-read a passage, and then have an internal dialogue about how I might apply the concepts to my game. I think my time will be much less reading and much more thinking. A one-man poker think tank.

Given the apathy I am feeling toward solver based training sites at the moment (not a criticism of them, I just don't feel like once again immersing myself in tedious GTO charts right now) and given my voracious appetite for reading books, I kind of like the idea of going the page turning route for a while on the poker front.

OK, I've got a plan. I'm over losing AK to AQ. I'm increasingly over my post-WSOP hangover (which lasted a little over four weeks). And now I think I've found an approach that is potentially both fun and studious, which is reading poker books instead of watching training site videos. I can feel my enthusiasm for poker returning.

Agree on the ESPN coverage. I did not watch the streams, and also found it boring. The "side action" segment can go. Not sure what purpose the on-floor reporter (the guy who gave the signed card to the Broncos fan) served. Didn't think having Nick and Ali doing commentary for what, one hand/show, added anything.

If they displayed the blind levels, I missed that. Someone opens for 1K; is that 5x, 2x, or what?

I am now officially 100% over my post-WSOP hangover.

I realized this tonight when reading the book Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise Of American Sports Gambling. Specifically, I realized this to be true when I read the following passage that took place the day after the 49ers lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII (February 2024) ...

On Monday Morning another bettor held an impromptu press conference in a crowded elevator. "I lost $10,000 on the 49ers," she said. "I'm trying not to sulk, but I am."

As we reached the lobby, she added, "I can't wait for next year, though."

I read this, felt no sorrow about WSOP 2026 bad beats and realized I have reached the "I can't wait for next year, though" stage as it relates to WSOP 2027.

Here is a link to the Rivers MSPT tournaments that has total starting chips and length of each level for every tourney. The one-day tourneys I'd otherwise consider seem to have 20-minute levels, which seem awfully turbo fast.

https://msptpoker.com/showpdf.ashx?event...

Check your private messages for when I am thinking of playing next month.

I have no interest in 20 min levels but it looks like both the 2 day events have 30 minute levels and reasonable blind jumps. I PMed you as well! Still unlikely I play Rivers.

I have this same series of feelings about my Vegas trips as a whole...

... it's July 23 and December can't come fast enough.

I’m no longer angry about WSOP bad beats ... but I am mad about something else

I just finished reading the book Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling, which looks in great detail at how online sports betting in America went from being seen as the devil itself by pro sports leagues for quite some time, only to completely change direction and become completely embraced by pro sports leagues and politicians in lockstep.

I, of course, read this with a completely different perspective than the book’s author intended. I looked at it from the perspective of online sports betting is now legal whereas online poker in my state of Illinois as well as the vast majority of states in America remains illegal. Hell, online sports betting has become turbo-charged legal. It is sports betting on steroids legal.

Meanwhile, the outlook for online poker in my home state is the following according to the artificial intelligence I use (Google Gemini):

rppoker: “What percent chance do you think there is for online poker to become legal in Illinois?”

Artificial intelligence: “Placing a definitive percentage on legislative outcomes is always speculative, but looking at the current political and market landscape in Illinois, the realistic probability of online poker (packaged alongside broader iGaming) becoming legal is low – somewhere in the 15% to 25% range for the next couple of years.”

And this pisses me off.

A.I.’s answer was actually much, much longer, but 15-25% is what I focus on. It makes me mad/sad.

The book I just finished quotes a lobbyist who describes what the tipping point was for the change in opinion by sports leagues and lawmakers when it came to online sports books: “There’s a younger generation of lawmakers who said, ‘Why are we forcing people to either be criminals or be inconvenienced in order to do something that they want to do when we can have strong consumer protections, we can have better regulation than the offshore market, we can have better insight into integrity problems. That was just part of the conversation. The other part is there’s a sh*t ton of money there.”

The bold facing is done by me, not A.I.

I mean, there’s a sh*t ton of money to be made in online poker, too. Plus, the rest of the quote above applies as well.

It aggravates me that online poker is not available from a legal, registered site for people to play in my state. Why can’t poker get its act together and lobby as effectively as online sports betting has done? Why can’t Pokerstars or GGPoker or the WSOP get this done? And if they can’t do so, why don’t Fanduel or DraftKings do for online poker what they did for online sports betting?

The money is there to be had. Not on the scale of online sports betting, but still on a pretty big scale. Money that can be taxed if lawmakers will just reach out and take it.

Let’s get back to the state of Illinois, which most of you don’t care about, but the arguments I make for the state of Illinois apply to whatever state you live in if you are in a state in which online poker is illegal.

An excerpt from the book I just finished about Illinois: “A couple of years after Illinois legalized sports betting, the (Chicago) Cubs signed a ten-year, $100 million deal to make DraftKings their official sports betting partner. DraftKings opened a dazzling 17,000-square-foot restaurant adjacent to Wrigley Field with a scrolling ticker displaying odds. Cubs co-owner Tom Ricketts joked, “I certainly wish the sportsbook will make me the kind of money that Steve Cohen has,” alluding to the owner of the New York Mets, who’s worth an estimated $17 billion.”

And I don’t want to hear how online poker multi-tabling is a fast road to ruin as a reason for why online poker should be illegal. Before online sports betting, illegal sports betting with a bookie used to be you picked a team and got/gave points and you could bet the over/under for a limited number of games. Now you can make in-game bets on a gazillion different aspects of a game. Microbetting galore. In the book I just read, a gaming employee for a top sportsbook said of microbetting inducing compulsive, bankroll-management-busting betting...

“If you don’t have action on the entirety of the game, but instead on the next play, it removes the waiting part and just has people constantly in action. That high transactive velocity is a concern.”

It amazes be how massively the NFL has changed its tune. When I covered the NFL from 1990-2002, the league office was seemingly on a crusade to the death against sports betting. They were all-in on combatting the insidious evil they thought sports betting involved. Zero wiggle room. In the book I just read, this was perfectly described by a former NFL attorney who said jokingly that the NFL was so averse to being affiliated with gambling, “if a team had to fly over Las Vegas, they’d ask that the plane somehow be diverted.”

And then one day, the NFL and every other sports league pivoted to the dark side. Suddenly, online sports betting was a beautiful thing.

“The other part is there’s a sh*t ton of money there.”

The almighty dollar speaks ... everywhere except for online poker, which is the red-headed stepchild of gambling.

I just don’t get it ... I just don’t like it ... I just don’t get to play it.

In any event, those are my gray-haired poker -- not at the WSOP -- thoughts for the day as I continue on my long and winding poker journey.

A blast from the past: Caro’s Book of Poker Tells

The poker books I recently ordered have still not arrived, so I went to my home office oversized closet tonight where I have a mini library of books separated into various categories such as poker books I have previously read, poker books I bought and never got around to reading, fiction and some nonfiction books by favorite authors I intend to read soon, books that I will eventually get around to reading, books I’ve read and could see myself re-reading many years down the road, etc.

Tonight, I went to the poker books I bought and never got around to reading section. I chose Caro’s Book Of Poker Tells: The Psychology And Body Language Of Poker. I have a vague recollection that this book was once quite popular. But I also have a vague recollection that it eventually was met with skepticism.

I’ve got nothing to lose but my time, so I start reading it. I figure if I pick up even a couple of tidbits it will be worth it.

Oh my gosh. A book full of basic stereotypes and generalizations with no nuance, no context.

Stuff like if a player does x, he/she must be bluffing. If a player does y, he/she is highly likely to have a monster. Everything an oversimplification. Everything overcertain.

My poker brain hurts from reading this book.

My attitude on tells is you have to observe a player, pay attention to their hands that get to showdown and then replay the hands and try to eventually apply meaning to the way they acted. And even then, with some players, you have to be careful because they will offer a reverse tell just when you think you have a tell figured out. I watch for tells, but I am careful not to read into an action until I have stockpiled a solid database/baseline. One player breathing deeply might mean a bluff, while another player doing the exact same think might mean he/she has a monster.

Caro’s book is strictly ABC. Everything in a straight line with no thought to actions being player dependent, no thought to possible misdirection.

After 100 pages I can’t take it anymore, brain cells are dying, and I stop reading. The tells described are too basic and the analysis seems just as likely to be wrong as right. Flip a coin and I don’t think you’d do any worse than the one size fits all approach Caro overconfidently guides the reader to incorporate on each tell showcased.

I ask Gemini, my artificial intelligence go to, the following question: Is Mike Caro’s book Caro’s Book of Poker Tells viewed positively or negatively by the poker community.

Gemini gives mixed reviews, stating that the book was once considered a classic, but it is now viewed with contemporary skepticism.

Gemini acknowledges that once upon a time this was pioneering work that identified core concepts that provided a crucial starting framework for generations of live poker players. A literary staple.

However, Gemini then turns up the criticism, stating that the book is outdated and oversimplified; it ignores the more modern reliance on observing betting patterns rather than tells; and it has an overreliance on soul-reading.

Overall, Gemini respects the book for its once legendary, historical milestone of achievement, but recognizes and cautions that any practical application today should be taken with a grain of salt.

rppoker asks Gemini ... The 90% gambling rule

An op-ed about recent IRS talks regarding the 90% gambling loss rule just ran on pokernews.com ...

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2026/07/kondler-associates-big-beautiful-bill-90-gambling-losses-51976.htm

pokernews

Kondler & Associates Breaks Down Recent IRS Talks Regarding the 90% Gambling Loss Rule

This rule will negatively impact those of us who have cashed in tournaments in 2026 but overall either break even or lose money on the year.

With this in mind, I asked Google Gemini, my artificial intelligence resource, to handicap how this could play out. Gemini says ...

Probability of a full repeal: 20% to 25%

Probability of a modified fix or compromise: 35% to 40%

Probability of staying as-is (no action): 40% to 45%

Summary outlook by Gemini: “If you are looking at how this plays out, the most realistic expectation is pain followed by quiet compromise. The rule will likely cause considerable friction during the upcoming tax filing seasons, generating enough industry backlash and taxpayer complaints to force lawmakers to look at a softened compromise – such as a tiered exemption or raising the cap back up – within the next two to three years, rather than an outright, immediate repeal.”

As you've concluded Caro's book on tells is way outdated and basically useless IMO. If you want some reading material on tells that offers some value you might try Zachary Elwood's material. I have three of his books and he used to offer some videos/on line material (he may still do that - since I don't play live that much these days I have not kept track).

The books are:
Reading Poker Tells -2012
Verbal Poker Tells - 2014
Exploiting Poker Tells -2017

The books are pretty well written and well edited

Thanks for the suggestion. I am familiar with Elwood by reputation, but I've never read any of his trilogy of poker tells books.

I just went to his web site

https://www.readingpokertells.com/

Reading Poker Tells - Poker Tells Training

Reading Poker Tells | Examining Poker Psychology

On online poker in Illinois (or anywhere else) I am very skeptical that it could even remotely be a fair playing field these days. I just envision playing againt 80%+ AI bots running every play through a solver.

FWIW, I have read 'Reading Poker Tells' and found it to be extremely boring and not offering many useful tells. At least that is how I remember it, as it's been a couple of years.

The most useful tells in my experience are 1) bet sizing and 2) bet-pacing (how fast or slow someone bets).