4-bet pot IP KK flops a set, bet sizing?

Cold call of 4 bet is very strong. Hard to ecer see it being worse than JJ+, AKo+, likely stronger. We need to work out best chance of getting stacks in; if he has AA, doesn't really matter since we are never getting away.

If you bet here, he's folding JJ/QQ for sure. I think I check, and act like I have QQ.

If he cheks Turn, I am checking again on any blank. If he bets less than All In, I probably just call.

And if he checks RIver again, I am shoving it in.

There is only pot left. You 4!, you have AA/KK/AK/Axs or you represent AA/KK with some other bluff. Maybe you could have QQ. The guy is a fish who cold called the 4! for a big part of his stack.

I think you just have to bet the flop and shove the turn. He will fold a lot, but hard to represent that you missed this flop and wouldn't try to bluff at it.

Grunch:

PRE - I think your cold 4B sizing is big according to theory, but probably fine as a live exploit. Just thinking that when we go this size our opponents may not have any 5B range.

FLOP - theory says we're supposed to range bet small as the pre-flop 4B'er. So 4B small.

Kinda sick if he check-jams. He's got 3 combos of AA, and 3 of AK. But my guess would be he's not raising AK pure, unless he understands he's doing it as a bluff, not for value

I think we can probably bet-fold to a check-jam, but only if we use a bet size that's not so small we might induce a jam from AK. I'd be concerned about inducing if we bet much less than 1/4 pot versus an unknown who may not understand 4B pot theory.

Alternatively, we could check back and evaluate turn. There again, I'd be concerned V might over-value his hand by betting big, and we fold the winner. Best case scenario is he bets small, we call, and then he checks to us on the river.

I would not fold to a check/jam on the flop, putting him on exactly a AA.

Any competent player would agree folding KK on AK3 w/ SPR of 1 is insanity.

SPR is probably about 1.4 after your bet.

Bro how are u gonna bet/fold a set of kings at 1SPR

The rec is the player that continued, he has 580 eff

I would just play theory here and geo it in across 3 street. Which is probably like 20p/20p/20p if I’m eyeballing it correctly

B10 flop

You are getting better than 2-1 to call a shove after cbetting.

How are you all ranging V?

Hero cold 4B pre. V cold called the 4B, not closing the action, with the BB, the initial raiser, and the initial 3B'er still to act.

Y'all can call me crazy, but if SB check-jams, it seems much more likely he has AA than any other hand.

I'm not even sure our hand can be bet for value. We have to think V is cold-calling 4B's with AK or worse. Does that sound right? Is he cold-calling AK pure?

I'd be ecstatic to get to showdown without having to call off a jam.

You may be confused on how to calculate SPR, it is Effective Stack/Size of Pot. The SPR would not be greater than 1.0 in your example.

My usual 4-bet size is 2.3x in-position, and 2.7x oop, plus the dead money on top.
So 2.3 x $80 + $25 = $209.

So I am actually just realizing now that I had a brain-fart preflop and used the 2.7x size by mistake.

When I read your post...I thought surely you must have mis-read something to suggest we might fold a set when V has only pot-sized bet left???!!! In this hand I am thinking about the best way to get the villain's stack in.

SPR is 1.0 on the flop. Once you cbet and villain effectively calls it when shoving, the SPR is less than 1.0.

Correct, I am disagreeing with your original statement "SPR is probably about 1.4 after your bet".

I thought cold 4bet sizes were usually bigger than your open-4bet sizes. 2.7x is fine for a cold 4bet AFAIK

I think it looks sus as all hell to cold 4bet and check this flop, unless you have reads that V is going to put it in for you.

Betting $100 (just less than 20% pot) seems the best size vs. unknown cold calling 4bets. Also makes it 100+200+280 for all in, and we are so strong and almost no draws that I'm dubious about the value of making it a two street game.

I fairly often see people punt it off and say "I had XYZ, what am I supposed to do, it's just a cooler" when I completely disagree ... but I'm basically never folding KK on AK3r in a 4bet pot with 1 SPR, like even if I'd snap fold preflop to a cold 5bet I'm still going to sigh call it off now.

I don't think I misread anything. I am indeed suggesting we might fold a set here.

Unknown rec (30's Indian guy) cold called our somewhat chunky $240 4B off an $820 stack. What do you think he has? AK? QQ?

Maybe sometimes he shows up with AK/QQ. We can't get value from QQ, if he even cold-calls pre with QQ. So we're hoping to get value from the 3 combos of AK, and not get stacked by the 3 combos of AA.

Think about it - he cold-called your cold-4B, for just a hair under 30% of his stack. Which seems most likely:

A - he's cold-calling a 4B for 30% of his stack, not closing the action, with AK/QQ.

B - he's just flatting with AA, praying the initial raiser or 3B'er puts in a 5B, or at least calls your 4B, so even more money gores into the pot before he springs the trap.

In my observation, mid-30's Indian guys don't like taking risks. They tend to be nut-peddlers.

I think he has to have some frequency of folding AK/QQ pre. I don't think he has much if any 5B frequency pre, even from OOP with AA, and especially not when he might get a full triple or even quadruple up if he flat calls rather than 5B'ing.

A 5B pre looks so strong, regardless of stack depth. At his stack depth, even a pure min-click would pot-commit him. He may as well jam, which would just let his opponents off the hook. When you cold 4B for 3x, his 5B looks that much stronger.

So he cold-calls. But still, it looks strong. It looks nutted.

Assume he check-jams. What do we think he has? Assume he folds AK pre 1/3 of the time. He only gets to the flop with 2 combos. Assume he just check-calls 1/2 the time, and jams 1/2 the time. He only jams 1 combo of AK.

I don't even think he gets to the flop and check-jams AK as often as that. This V type would be happy to check-call three streets with AK, assuming he even has AK in range when he cold-calls your cold-4B pre.

i dont see any point in betting much at this SPR. if you check you at least give JJ/QQ two outs to catch up, and he'll bet AK on the turn for you anyway. id check or bet something tiny like 15% pot. and if he just calls the 15% bet the flop id check behind the turn and hope he bluffs river.

if he has AA, oh well gg.

Why not bet super tiny and let him make some mistakes? Bet 50 see what happens.

If there is ever a demographic that might cold call a 4b with a hand that shouldn’t it’s Indian rec. Would it really be so surprising if he shows up with AQs?

I mean...

The initial open came from UTG1 and was 5BB. That should be strong. Then HJ 3B's to 3.2x. That should be stronger. Then hero cold 4B's to 3x. That should be MUCH stronger.

V cold-called a 4B for 29% of his stack, not closing the action, leaving himself less than a PSB behind. The BB, UTG1, and HJ can still 5B. If that happens, hero can re-raise again. V effectively committed himself to getting the rest of his stack in pre.

UTG1 would be getting 2.7 to 1 to call with $1260 behind. HJ would be getting 3.65 to 1 with $960 behind. Why would they fold strong hands, getting those odds?

Could it be that it's obvious hero has AA/KK here?

How terrible does V need to be to get here with AQ/QQ? How terrible would he need to be to put more money in with AQ/QQ? How likely is it that he has AK, and he's eager to get stacks in?

He'd have to think hero would cold-4B pre and is happy to stack off post with worse AX.

Does that sound extremely likely to anyone?

I think our best line would be betting small, like $100-ish, at most.

Regarding your 4B size...

What was the standard open size and standard 3B size prior this hand? Was the 5BB open larger than standard? Would that make the HJ's 3.2x 3B seem like an even larger raise? Would that in turn make your 4B look monstrous?

I'm not necessarily suggesting you should have gone smaller. I think your sizing was fine as a low stakes exploit, depending on the effective stack depth.

That said, I'd think 5B's would be rare in this game under any circumstances, and more rare still with this action, specifically referring to the raise sizes used to that point, and the tight configuration. If +1 or HJ flat called, I wouldn't eliminate AA from their ranges.

The point is that if there's no 5B range for anyone in the pot, then flat calling a 4B doesn't cap anyone. Calling a 4B looks about as strong as 5B'ing. If we agree on that, then I think the 4B may be a tad larger than it needed to be, to the extent our opponents start folding worse hands and only continuing with AA/AX.

If +1 or HJ called, we might give them a range that includes QQ/AQ, and possibly some worse combos, because they were getting a price, and implied odds, and their actions pre-flop allow them to rep strong hands post flop. The value in 4B'ing here comes when they can't release QQ/AQ and call, or risk it all by turning their hand into a bluff by jamming.

But V in SB didn't need to VPIP or defend. He wasn't getting a price to call, nor was he getting good implied odds.

How often are people cold-4B'ing in this game? Even at these stack depths? Doesn't a cold 4B usually indicate an extremely strong hand? What would your opponents think your range is here, given the configuration and raise sizes being used?

How often is SB cold calling with worse than AA, for 29% of his stack, leaving himself less than a PSB behind, not closing the action, with 3 opponents left to act?