what is G666G?: eaz666zy moneyzz666z

@nath

ft is 9. when minraising BB has many calls

I think shove is best here in our situation.

Im wondering though how one would play this spot with J2off against topreg in a much higher buyin.

solve is balancing traps with hands like J2, but we don't really have the need to balance here assuming we rarely meat our topreg opponent and he'll thus be unlikely to find out if we indeed have minraise / folds in our minraising range.

so do we just minraise our premiums?

then our topreg opponent may have thought that we thought exactly what I just laid out and thus he'll assume we just have premiums in our minraise.

then we can actually raise not only J2off, but many more hands as a bluff.

our topreg opponent being topreg will of course still know what we thought, thus he'll exploit our strategy with many weaker hands than he should.

seems like most topregs will end up thinking that it's most simple and optimal to stay balanced in this spot and let others make a mistake if theyre deviating?

is that how most topregs of the field will reason, and thus simply end up playing balanced here, raising some J2off and some premiums vs other topregs?

@nath

so would you maybe even play it the other way around,

not sending KJs into a raise,

but rather KJoff into a shove too?

I dont quite understand the point of the value of taking down the pot "without any risk of showdown" at this stage, though I heard it before. In what sense is it "risk"?

we're shoving, oftenly theyll fold, sometimes theyll call and we're going to showdown for our stack.

we're minraising, and still rarely go to showdown, even if we end up postflop. or we go to showdown, but not for all of our chips.

@nath

The other two players can reshove too ofc. the convering player's reaction to our raise (we can simplify his 3bets to shoves in our scenario, though he ends up 3betfolding some of them in that solve):

how many Ax, suited Ax, pockets, broadways, suited connectors is he gonna reshove in reality?

tough to estimate, I think some opponents in this 5$ tourney will reshove less, and some will reshove much more.

Any Ax, if they think it's worth to pressure us in that spot? Maybe if they think we're doing exactly what we're doing, sending too many hands into a minraise that we'll not be able to defend vs a shove in ICM.

then, dependent on our assessment of villains, shoving KJs looks much better again. but if we don't know what our opps are doing ..

... we got estimate what they will be doing on a more general level.

I think I confused here something, namely them being tight / not wild in certain situations (well, mainly not calling off) with how they are going to play on a broader scale in this ICMish situation (not being wild when given the option to pressure).

that's a pretty basic fail assessment but I havent much experience in these deep runs, and without it's tough to estimate how random opponents of the field are really gonna play.

so we can save for ourselves:

In ICM, it's better to not give anyone the opportunity to be the last to put pressure on you with a move (where you have to call off then),

because people dont like taking risks in ICM (when they have to call off),
but like to put pressure on someone with a move when they still have the opportunity (to make villain call off).

@nath

the question is what they'll actually gonna do.

Im contemplating these scenarios and some things Im somewhat guessing and unsure about, if it was a higher buy in tournament or my opps were better there'd be more reasons against a minraise ofc ;-)

so BB gets to play more hands than he would otherwise.

At what point does that become a problem?

arent we doing fine postflop with our small cbets if he's passive and doesnt show much resistance?

BB gets to reshove many hands vs our raise in this solve:

when compared to his calls/folds vs our shove:

he has 7 bigs though and we raised of a short stack .. potentially expecting hardly any fold equity in this 5$ tourney, is he gonna reshove anything that doesnt lie in the top5% of his hands?

In my strat in above solve KJoff is a raise, KJs isn't that far off from KJoff in raw hand strength, so it's not like raising KJs is going to be very bad when raising KJoff is good, I think. (KJoff is a raisefold in that solve vs BB reshoves)

hmm interesting, that's approx the situation I had in mind, my strategy vs wide chipleader open:

tighter against midstack who opens into chipleader's bb:

again chipleader's open, many shorter stacks now but noone very short, Im 2nd in chips and have more calls:

it's always fairly similar when im in SB or somewhere midpositionish.

you're obv not aware of how close hand vs hand and range vs range equities run.

yes, thankfully it's exploitable people, if correctly assessed.

that's completely false,

here's similar spot when I have only 4 bigs in small blind: -> shoving less

no one will be dead [dead by panicking before being dead?] as long as he has >0 bigs, it's not 2004.

against these plyrs in ICM you have fold equity with 3.5 big blinds.

nah he will call tighter than in above chart it's 10 / 2000 and plenty of others are short too

shit, I forgot my aim

against our minraise SB has nonallin bluff3bets like KToff, KJoff, A9off and other Ax, and some suited Kx / Ax.

theyre also balancing his stronger premiums which go into a small 3bet.

our opp may not have these bluff3bets at all, then we can realize our equity much better with a minraise.

If he does have too many bluff3bets though (for exampe Ax), we'd prefer to shove KJs.

BB can also be more aggressive, if he chooses to bluff3bet Ax hands or shove more suited Ax.

our minraising range is thankfully protected by premiums, so it's not as easy to pounce on us.

we should defend this range vs a big blind shove:

okay here it's closer than it seems. the "unrealistic" assumptions I disclosed earlier have certain legitimacy.

that's my baseline strategy:

suited broadways like KJs like shoving here to avoid raisefolding (or inviting reshoves with good equity when we'd prefer to pick up the pot on the spot).

BB's calling range looks like

It's pretty tight already, and I think oftenly he'll be even tighter: folding some smaller pockets, AT, A9s, KQs, ... but sometimes he'll end up calling more loose.

this will be SB's tight calling range who has 15 bigs:

maybe he folds 88, 99, ATs, AJ, but he may also call more loose.

As we can see in our strategy, some Ax hands and offsuit broadways like KJ or QJ like minraising already (they will be raisefolds). The covering player is supposed to react like that:

in our 5$ tourney he may not reshove some pockets, broadways, or (suited) Ax, and he'll send premiums like AA KK QQ JJ into a shove instead of a small 3bet.

so we'll benefit of better equity realization when minraising.

then BB's reaction:

so it looks like some hands he sends into a shove he may just fold or call, like suited wheel aces, small pockets or suited broadways that we dominate which is also a plus for us, and he may be defending somewhat tighter generally.

so I conclude that minraising KJs can have similar or better EV than shoving under the right assumptions that can prevail in the right tournaments and circumstances.

ladies and gentlemen,

from today on, KQoff is a premium:

so I forget the thought that maybe having no fold equity here may result in icm in not shoving:

BB's yolo calling range, I think we had millions of millions more fold equity than here:

so it's another spot where they'll be overfolding.

@Qtang

something along those lines:

32off must be uber trash xD

and look at BB's reaction:

I think he would fold much more in reality, thus we want to shove 100%

ahh forgot the last point,

666) making it to the final table Id be more deepstacked after blind rollback and able to take much better exploitative situations vs my villains.

that can be relevant of a future game consideration too, maybe here less as we're so short and a few extra blinds wont hurt us.

(and now I realized Im fantasizing about hitting the gas again, got to remind myself to contemplate it later)

oh wow, I just saw that gtowiz unlocked a lot of final table ICM solves

And maybe

5) SB who covers me ICM punting and calling my shove wider than he should

Dunno what calling range he should have, but there's fear that he'll find some weak calls that he shouldn't as it's a 5$ tourney after all

Or in general,

Fear that any of these guys will find a call that he shouldn't.

Will field on average rather overfold or overcall? I think overfold. These guys who have been left were rather on the tight side too.

But I'm not so sure, since they'll have to call my shove with a tight range anyway. Will they call even tighter than in ICM?

Legit idea with single table sngs

I don't know how they're supposed to react vs my shove,

But some (unrealistic) assumptions somewhere along

1) they assume to have no fold equity reshoving since I raise off such a short stack

2) they reshove exactly the hands they would call my shove with (very strong hands)

3) they fold most of their range, and call only few hands of which many will be dominated, like KT QJ JT (oftenly BB vs me)

4) postflop theyll give up if they miss, and stack off if we hit a K or J together

Could give us the desired result of a raise (raisefold) being more profitable.

Ma man's gotta teach us how to play and reach final tables on GG

for 20 bigs you can always 3betshove AQoff, completely standard play.

you can look up free preflop ranges for mtts for different stack sizes in chipEV on gtoWizard, and surf through plays regards raises, 3bets, shoves and so on in different scenarios in different positions.

he opens to 3 bigs, that gives you even less room for 3betnonallin. his stack is so short too.

every once in a blue moon he will fold to your 3betshove. you never know what these guys will do. they dont even know themselves. one moment they think they will play one way, next moment they decide differently.

he will also show up with non pockets, though pockets may make a large chunk of his 3xing range. he's not wanting you shorties to 3betshove broadway stuff on him (or call him, as you mentioned already).

How you like my shitplays Qtang ? 😃

Deserved 10nd place I think 😃 😃

because they always have shit when I call them xD

Im sure it all depends. Let's say shoving is ICM baseline strategy here.

How do our opponents react to a raise vs a shove?

Isnt there a way to think of our opps being bad enough that a raise becomes more profitable?

I dunno, but I found that chatgpt knows a lot or talks like it knows a lot, so now I have a deep conversation with chatgpt 😃