Bitcoins - digital currency
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital currency. Peer-to-peer (P2P) means that there is no central authority to issue new money or keep track of transactions. Instead, these tasks are managed collectively by the nodes of the network. Advantages:
- Bitcoins can be sent easily through the Internet, without having to trust middlemen.
- Transactions are designed to be computationally prohibitive to reverse.
- Be safe from instability caused by fractional reserve banking and central banks. The limited inflation of the Bitcoin system’s money supply is distributed evenly (by CPU power) throughout the network, not monopolized by banks.
Total size 5,811,700 BTC
or 4,585,431 USD
or 3,545,137 EUR
or 133,094,323 RUB
or 3,849 ounces of gold
Any value to this idea or will it never work?
Thanks for all the responses, i've learned a lot. Other encryption breaking down seems quite an important fact. I presume encryption used in the fiat banking world would tumble before bitcoin? Or is that an incorrect assumption.
Very interesting point about about Satoshis coins, even if theres a fork and proofed addresses like you say seems almost like vandalising history that they would be moved, but they would be by someone
Still lots of development in the quantum field, but smart humans are moving fast. Initially thought we were decade+ out, but could be within a few years. Sub 10 for sure.
Either way, this is quite scary imo.
This is what I'm hearing from people with more knowledge than myself. Roughly 5 years until quantum computers have some utility vs classical computers, and roughly 10 years until they can run Shor's.
And yes, everyone is going to have to migrate to quantum-safe encryption methods before too long. But another thing about this is that if you save an encrypted message sent today that is not quantum-safe, we will be able to crack it later once the quantum computers are available. So yeah...three letter agencies are doing this.
Quantum computers are not expected to be able to efficiently solve what are known as NP-hard problems, and so encryption methods that are projected to be quantum safe exist, and NIST has standards for this put in place: https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quan...
Trump announcing EU tariffs is expediting this sell-off. I sold off most my stack last week and yesterday, expecting this.
It's likely going to consolidate somewhere just over ETF release prices below 70k. Those are my best guesses.
Trump announcing EU tariffs is expediting this sell-off. I sold off most my stack last week and yesterday, expecting this.
It's likely going to consolidate somewhere just over ETF release prices below 70k. Those are my best guesses.
ETF release price was around 46k. If we drop that, bunch of paper hand ETF paper gonna get scared and massive leg down. Don't think we're going that low.
Nov 5 election date was around 69k. Could drop below that as an f u to Trump. We'll see.
Computer architecture... it is either on or off, it's either a 1 or 0.
Quantum computing... it is BOTH a 1 and a 0 at the same time.
The threat of quantum computing isn't about them mining blocks faster, but for private keys to be breached through brute force.
Scott Aaronson (an academic who is not trying to sell you anything) has a blog that is a pretty good read whenever some big headlines break. Some of them are legit advances and some are pure bullshit.
People will need to move coins to quantum proof addresses. No good solution exists right now.
scariest thing i read about quantum computing is that whomever figures it out first will not be letting the world know via a press conference but rather by the wake of their destruction as various keys to the modern world are presented to them and only them
This thread is incredible, done so much reading in the past 24 hours thanks to all of this. It's quite the technological revolution but bitcoin seems fine to be able to be adapated to it.
Sub 80
I honestly never thought I would see this day again. Praise lord.
And it looks like it may go lower!
moves like this were common during prior bull cycles, but they played out in shorter periods of time whereas this cycle the moves take longer to play out with more consolidation along the way.
the fact we haven’t really had a -25% local retrace since the 2022 bear market is more unbelievable to me. the market seems way too complacent in general expecting “no bear markets ever again” due to Saylor/TardFi/ETF’s and I think this is a good reminder that the next bear market (if this is simply a standard run of the mill bull market pullback) will likely be as brutal as all the others to the tune of a 70-75% peak to trough crash.
I, for one, am here for the -35-50% shakeouts. I sincerely welcome them.
Trump announcing EU tariffs is expediting this sell-off. I sold off most my stack last week and yesterday, expecting this.
It's likely going to consolidate somewhere just over ETF release prices below 70k. Those are my best guesses.
I sold a good chunk 2 days ago also, and I am also expecting ~70k-75k base. That would be a bit over a 30% drop and I'm actually stunned we hadn't had that big of a drop until now.
The next question is if this cycle is over or if we range/consolidate and continue up into late 2025 and early 2026? My expectation was always a high between Q2-Q4 of 2025.
I called it... 78k
Not sure where the bottom is, but what a gift for all the people bemoaning that they missed the boat on the 100k+ move...
I sold a good chunk 2 days ago also, and I am also expecting ~70k-75k base. That would be a bit over a 30% drop and I'm actually stunned we hadn't had that big of a drop until now.
The next question is if this cycle is over or if we range/consolidate and continue up into late 2025 and early 2026? My expectation was always a high between Q2-Q4 of 2025.
My opinion is that this cycle (especially in shitcoins) got front run a bit earlier than usual and that we have already seen the double-top highs. I think we chop a while and then keep breaking lower back to 30-40k over the next 1-2 years. I've been getting all my shitcoins and nearly all of my btc out of the market but I have more to sell still over the next week. Most alts will drop another 90% from here, bitcoin at least another 50% but not very quickly imo
Not sure where the bottom is, but what a gift for all the people bemoaning that they missed the boat on the 100k+ move...
The people who think like this will never be buying at 80.
They are all the embodiment of the meme "I'll buy when it is -30% less than current price" and then when it drops 30% they instantly flip to "I ain't buying that ****"😀.
The people who think like this will never be buying at 80.
They are all the embodiment of the meme "I'll buy when it is -30% less than current price" and then when it drops 30% they instantly flip to "I ain't buying that ****"😀.
100%
The "I'll buy when it's lower" people never actually buy
I'm hoping for a $46,500 Bitcoin, because I'm looking to buy a small portion at that price.
Thread seems too bearish imo. DCA seems to be the way to go, hoping for dream entries, and selling now both seem optimistic. Buying and hodling through the ups and downs will outperform 90% of strategies. If you think you have a top 10% strat or have info that others don't, by all means try trading, otherwise buy, hold, and don't sell.
Sincerely,
Someone who tried to time tops and bottoms in 2020/2021 and basically did the opposite
Thread seems too bearish imo. DCA seems to be the way to go, hoping for dream entries, and selling now both seem optimistic. Buying and hodling through the ups and downs will outperform 90% of strategies. If you think you have a top 10% strat or have info that others don't, by all means try trading, otherwise buy, hold, and don't sell.
Sincerely,
Someone who tried to time tops and bottoms in 2020/2021 and basically did the opposite
PS: Disregarding the profitability angle completely, the lack of stress and the ability to ignore market predictions and conditions, WW3, tariffs/geopolitics, and whatever other types of FUD/alpha are trending, when not trading, is worth quite a bit of money. Sorry for that atrocious sentence.
Incred scenes. Other countries gotta be FOMOing in rn. Especially ones who’ve been bullied a bit by the USA over the years. Smaller quicker moving ones. I mean I’m making this up but if you were a country like that rn what would you do?
I'll be honest, I didn't expect it to retrace so quickly. I sold a portion of my stack because I had big purchases coming up and had a cost basis in the 40's.
I guess we'll see what happens next. My original prediction was a high in 2025 between Q2 and Q4 and 80-150k. Any new predictions?
