"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread

undertitle suggestion: ChatRTP

how do you think Super Bowl LX will be from a gambling perspective.

props and alt lines not main markets. I’m doubtful opening lines will be materially more efficient than earlier playoff rounds?

— juice similar on ATD?

—- markets on the more niche stuff tightens gradually or just within the last 48-72 hours?

—— if the limits increase linearly or in chunks from now until kickoff.

—— longest reception/longest rush/longest completion/R + RY/individual quarter total/spread/. Not sure if these are being shaped by syndicate volume or just managed exposure for SB

PSA: anyone who has a buddy on it or sees ads etc and gets lured in — it might be worth avoiding the newly launched Polymarket US app for now. I’m an early (“beta”) user. My balance has fluctuated wildly in ways unrelated to open positions (including a ~90% drop), withdrawals appear delayed, and payout requests from early January still haven’t been processed.

Support responses have largely consisted of generic “please be patient, we’re working on it” messages, with several reps going dark as of late.

Not a vent or anything — just flagging for anyone who might want to gamble on the big game in a state where traditional sports betting platforms and books aren’t available. Protect yourselves.

You have to decide if the risk is worth it. I got my skrill account nuked a few years back. I cant remember the exact amt but it was in the a couple of K range. One of the sites I was gamboolin on worked closely with them. I did my best to minimize the risk of getting my $ locked up, but they managed to claw some crumbs back.

Went to Las Vegas last week for bizness, was kinda shocked I hadn't been there since 2017. Time has to slow the **** down.

Snuck in some very quick sessions at the Horseshoe and Bellagio just to get poker chips for my collection (up to 34 now).

Spent $375 Canadian for wife and I to see a movie I wouldn't cross the street for back home (Wizard of Oz @ Sphere). JFC, can you imagine a real life where everyone sings a ****ing song every time you meet them? Intro scene in Kansas with the twister was cool, though not sure it was $375 Canadian cool.

Pretty sure I saw RTP and his doggo about to enter the Hash House A Go Go @ the Linq (Tuesday, 8:15am-ish?).

Think I'm somewhere just shy of ~20 visits to Vegas at this point? Kinda long done with it especially since I can get my poker fix at home. But will be going again next year for bizness too.

GcluelessLasVegasnoobG

the smartest advice i've ever gotten is not to bet anything mainstream on the superbowl

more specifically, if you aren't able to bet the maximum the book will take then you are not sophisticated enough to have an edge in that market

short and sweet - don't bet into anything you wouldn't bet for the maximum allowed unless it's so good you could arb the other side (but i wouldn't ever arb unless both sides are +ev)

i'd bet what you can while you still can - last year about 2/3 of the things i wanted to hit were taken off the board by the time i got to the casino or they gave me $50 limits

i'm not sophisticated nor smart enough to comment on holistic market dynamics, i was always a plug and play guy "i see they offer x,y,z here that looks promising, let me crunch the numbers and see if my assumption that is a good bet is accurate" so i wouldn't be armed well enough to comment off hand on anything

thanks for the input you gave me over dm, i haven't been hitting the kiosks since i built that so i've only tested in on pc

also realized a few other bugs too while i was at it - will post the newer update later today

you go to Vegas for the first time in a decade and you see us on the second floor of the linq at 8:15am on a random Tuesday?

not that it’s a big deal but that’s a crazy coincidence considering I haven’t been to that restaurant in like a decade too lol and I wasn’t even staying at the linq..

I noticed you only post Monday - Friday? Is that so? You have your priorities straight lol that’s admirable

I'll bet that Sam Darnold will not try an inside slant from the opponents' 1-yard line.

how difficult is it taking a dog on the road - i came across a handful of stray cats on my journies and while i wanted to adopt every single one of them, i couldn't imagine the car + hotel + casino grind being compatible with keeping one

It changes how you move through the world. Elevators, restrooms, hospitals, hotels, waiting rooms, poker rooms, strangers’ cars—basically everywhere. You need thick skin, but it’s manageable and honestly pretty eye-opening.

I’ve been collecting chips since the seventies, but now I’m considering selling some. My wife won’t know what to do with them, and I don’t think my grandkids will appreciate them like I thought they would when I started collecting them. Fun hobby though.

Begin to get old and start thinking what’s going to happen when I kick off. There’s probably no reason to leave a bunch of junk behind that my wife will take to goodwill.

I don’t know if I’ll make the effort, but I would feel better with someone having them that appreciates them. I’m still planning on being around for a long time, but I think that was some of my friend’s plans too.

Yeah, lost a friend my age to a stroke yesterday. I'm having trouble processing it. I've lost friends to accidents or bizarre illness before, but this is the first time it's been a traditional age-related issue. It doesn't seem real.

Sorry for your loss, G. That’s really tough. What’s your favorite memory of them?

Yeah, wife and I were just taking a seat in the waiting area when I noticed the next person getting seated by the hostess had this adorable dog with them that kinda looks like ours (we also have a golden doodle). Literally put 2+2 together and assumed it must be you. Was going to search you out and flash the 2+2 gang sign but couldn't remember what it was, lol.

Yeah, I only post during my work hours, although I'll admit I sometimes lurk at other times (trying to cut down on that).

Gclueless2+2noobG

I wished I hadda thought of collecting chips in the 90s when I first went to Vegas for bizness and getting in some poker sessions, as I think I'm missing a few rooms (that are probably now non-existent).

It is ok for our hobbies / interests to only be our own and meanwhile thought of as complete junk by our inheritors, imo. I realized this when sorting thru all the crap left behind by our parents when they passed; my siblings and I took a few things each that meant something to each of us / we could find useful, but honestly 99% of it went to goodwill / the dump. My wife and I are taking steps to make our passing as easy as possible on the kids, but it certainly won't involve curbing our current interests.

GcluelessendlessnumbereddaysnoobG

Sorry to hear G. :(

I've become hyper-aware of my mortality in the last year or so, I guess it's just that age. My wife heard something last year that shook her to her core, in that a person her age likely only has 20 (good) summers left. I'd actually only have 12 - 14 summers left if I kick off slightly early like my parents did, which is a little hard to wrap my head around.

GworriedthatI'mnotutilizingmyremainingtimecorrectlyG

rickroll: I can only speak to traveling with a dog, not "on the road" as in full time. It changes things significantly. You can't just stop when you want ,or power through. Need to build in time for them to get out and stretch, eat, etc. Never had problems finding lodging, though sometimes I had to try a couple places before I found a pet-friendly spot. Ofc, additional charges apply.

Garick: So sorry for your loss.

RoadToPro: give a scratch out from me.

garick sorry about that

was actually kinda wondering

assuming we were militarily occupying a place like iraq or afghanistan and the local population all had a tradition of carrying weapons - let's say a similar thing happened vis a vis pretti and ice but instead with soldiers at a checkpoint and some local inhabitant

would it be considered part of the rules of engagement or would there be an investigation and potential court martial?

Haha yes — that was us!! wtf [emoji1787]

Realized after posting that my wording could’ve been cleaner. I wasn’t being sarcastic at all — just genuinely baffled by how astronomically low the odds were. I hadn’t been there in ~10 years, wasn’t staying at the property, and had no idea you were in town.

Between having to pay 2:1 to use Reward Credits there and not being able to utilize the 4 complimentary drinks/day benefit (afaik), the odds of me choosing that spot on that morning get even smaller.

Wild coincidence either way. Goldendoodle radar undefeated [emoji1]

Sorry to hear, the surprising deaths are the most devastating. It takes time

We were martial arts buddies. Guy was a monster, like 6'10" and left handed. Probably my favorite memory is when we were practicing and he got me way out of position. I yelled "good," which is what we say when the other person got a good shot in and it's time to stop and reset (think like "full point" in karate). He got confused and said "but I didn't hit you." I told him, "I'm taking that shot to the back of my shoulder blade you have set up. I'll take it now, because I can't block it, and it will hurt." He just started laughing and said "yeah, that's what's coming next."

There would definitely be an investigation. Findings of it and whether there would be a court depends on the ROE in effect and the evidence that came in. IME, just the existence of a weapon is usually insufficient justification for a shot. There has to be a reasonable expectation that they are a threat. What constitutes that varies, based on location, activity, etc.

Sorry for your loss G :(

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My condolences Garick ♥

I know we've never met but I consider you a good friend of mine. The way you reached out to me when I was appointed Mod of SE, to show me the ropes, was very kind of you.

Only a few hours after hearing Dilbert went to the corner office in the basement, I read that my first boss in law school had died. And he didn't seem that old at the gaming commission, maybe late 40s.

Don't think I ever got around to posting my fave Christmas break story, but better late than never.

Many months ago, some home made signs started popping up in the nearby park where I walk our dog. The park is surrounded by houses and townhomes and condos, so lots of pet owners around. Well, seems someone's cat had gone missing and so they posted a picture of her with a contact number. Um, with lottsa surrounding traffic and racoons and so on, yeah, good luck to that cat. R.I.P., imo.

Fast forward a couple of months, and the posted signs are still up. I'm puttering in our garage when all of a sudden a black cat skips across our driveway. WTF? I never see cats in our cul-de-sac. I see it crouching in our cedars and try to coax it out. It looks a lot like the cat in the posted pictures, could it be her? I quickly run inside to get a box and some cat treats to try and trap it, but when I return, it's gone. Damn. I've missed my chance.

Fast forward another couple of months to Christmas Eve. It's getting quite a lot colder out but I'm still doing my every-other-day bicycle rides running errands. I ride my bicycle by one of the posted signs that are still up, but I see some new writing on it, so I stop and take a closer look:

"After 21 weeks, our cat was found and safely returned! Never give up hope! Never give up trying! Thanks to all who offered assistance, we never would have found her without your help!"

Git'sawonderfulllifeCharlieBrownG