View: Your Poker Results are determined by Luck
I'm going to post what Matt Marinelli posted on his twitter (#1 online cash game player in America).
He simulated 6 bots
I think Stefan won 12bb/100 over 50k hands. The standard deviation of heads-up poker is around 25 bb/100 according to:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/109/h....
So the standard error is 25/Sqrt(50k/100) = 1.1 bb/100. The 95% confidence interval for the win rate is 9.8-14.2.
It takes thousands of hands to be confident your win rate differs from zero. That is why there are so many delusional losing gamblers at poker, but not at chess.
In contrast
Hopefully everyone noticed by now that the linked thread is about HU LHE, not NLHE. HUNL standard deviation is way higher than 6-max NL, obviously. Just as FR standard deviation is lower than 6 max.
All in all you need one million hands for confidence, not happening me. Just want to place myself favorably if luck hits. And being able to pay if not reaching the money in my MTTs, like, ever.
It's not a static environment. If your game doesn't improve in 1 million hands then you're doing something wrong. Equally you can expect the average skill level of your opponents to improve in the time it takes to play 1 million hands. There is no number of hands you have played in the past that "solidifies" your winrate in the present and future
