$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition
I am going to be starting with $25 in my Ignition Account and try to spin it up to $25,000.
I will start at 5nl since it is the lowest stake on the site and be playing Ignition Reg tables only.
I will be updating every 5k hands with my progress.
My expectation for each limit is as follows:
Expected Winrates for each limit:
5NL: 30bb/100
10NL: 25bb/100
25NL: 20bb/100
50NL: 15bb/100
100NL: 12bb/100
200NL: 10bb/100
Variance will be a decent factor in a lot of these winrates but these are just ball park numbers. Once I hit 25k I will take a 10buyin shot at 500nl! As far as moving up I'll move up whenever I feel like it, but probably after winning 30-40 buyins at the limit.
There will be no cherry picking here since you can't cherry pick a Bankroll Challenge. Wish me luck (or not) and follow along in this thread.
iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 261.2 BB
Hero (UTG): 122.7 BB
CO: 144.9 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2d 2h
Hero raises to 2.1 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.1 BB, SB raises to 13.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 11.1 BB, BTN calls 11.1 BB
Flop : (40.6 BB, 3 players) 4d Js 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 8.1 BB, fold, SB calls 8.1 BB
Turn : (56.8 BB, 2 players) As
SB checks, Hero chec
I’d fold preflop but if I called I’m never stabbing flop you legit might have zero percentage fold equity with that sizing.
Ace being a spade blocks almost all of your flushes so you get snapped by anyone that can hand read OTR if you decide to bluff. Turn X caps you to not many value comvos OTR.
This is basically one of those spots that looks good on the surface to be a bluff king but doesn’t work out in practice. Bluffing is hard that’s why most people don’t do it.
You don’t have KsQo preflop and KsKx 4bets preflop so it’s only 66 ftw for value. Very unlikely you have Kxss since you are incentivized to bet turn on paired boards with a nut flush.
If you look at xc30-x-bsmall it’s profitable but the data has a lot of showdown bias in it that skews results.
I think it’s good to think about this stuff but at the end of the day it’s not a logical bluff imo.
Not completely poker related but life is much much stranger than anyone can imagine.
Poker is an extension of how you think and process things and in turn you think you can gain money from this.
I think the best players in the world have limited egos. This is why no elite players run CFPs. In order to run a CFP you have to coach people and in order to coach people you have an ego that you know more than the person you are coaching.
This taints why you are learning. If you learn for image or money than you don’t understand the purpose of knowledge.
And that’s they will never truly understand the game.
Not completely poker related but life is much much stranger than anyone can imagine.
Poker is an extension of how you think and process things and in turn you think you can gain money from this.
I think the best players in the world have limited egos. This is why no elite players run CFPs. In order to run a CFP you have to coach people and in order to coach people you have an ego that you know more than the person you are coaching.
This taints why you are learning.
I might be slow but I don't get this or the point? Does this apply to school teachers as well?
I don’t get why you'd want to be a CFP manager. if all you wanted out of life is a million bucks for barking at twats you could get a middle management job at some bank or ad agency. There's probably more freedom to be yourself in CFP management > private but I bet it’s still a total pain in le arse coaching noobs dawn to dusk too. And your job being dependent on them doing well. Christ.
Unless the ultimate plan is something fun like world domination. A CFP with a subversive secret aim of some kind would be fantastic and totally justified.
I don't think anyone embraces top level chess without really loving the game, if not because chess is indeed a beautiful game, then because realistically there is no decent money except if you're #1. I mean, you need to start very early in life, do a ton of hard work and ofc be very smart, and still, no guarantees at all. I think poker is beautiful, less than chess but still beautiful, with the difference that there is some money in poker even without being the #1 GOAT.
Poker is not that scalable though, if your main goal is to get rich. Inflation was low but running during the 2010s, and it hit the world hard post-COVID, and yet, not only limits remain the same, but the high levels are consistently drying up. Getting entrepreneurial and starting a CFP is a decent option to circumvent this IMO, if you have something to teach and is good enough.
...if your main goal is to get rich
The CFP gambit is self-contradictory. The game is drying up so let's help it dry up quicker, nuke the value proposition for the next gen (min wage for dropouts), add nothing, take everything and draw up the ladder on the way oot?
May as well sell shoes mun. You dont' need to be rich to be happy. Peace and love is where it's at.
...if your main goal is to get rich
The CFP gambit is self-contradictory. The game is drying up so let's help it dry up quicker, nuke the value proposition for the next gen (min wage for dropouts), add nothing, take everything and draw up the ladder on the way oot?
May as well sell shoes mun. You dont' need to be rich to be happy. Peace and love is where it's at.
It's similar to the selling of shovels analogy.
During the gold rush everyone went west to California to find gold, but the people who made the most money were the ones selling the shovels.
I don't really want to derail this thread too much with my own personal philosophies so I'll stick to strategy mainly but you asked 😀
Doing a new format for a video and should drop one in the next day or two.
2 good HH's for fish concepts.
1. They overfold to triple barrels plus good turn data point. Don't use big sizing OTR. The wider the vpip/pfr gap the more they overfold.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
MP1 ($8.30) [VPIP: 58.3% | PFR: 22.9% | AGG: 21.8% | Hands: 49]
HERO ($25.35) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 136287]
BTN ($36.13) [VPIP: 11.3% | PFR: 11.3% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 53]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 34.1% | PFR: 20.5% | AGG: 32.3% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 22.2% | 3Bet: 6.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 29.4% | Hands: 45]
Dealt to Hero: K♦ 5♦
MP1 Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, BB Calls $0.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [24.5 effective]
Flop ($1): 2♣ 7♥ 9♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $24.60), BB Calls $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $24.25)
Turn ($1.50): 2♣ 7♥ 9♥ Q♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.12 (Rem. Stack: $23.48), BB Calls $1.12 (Rem. Stack: $23.13)
River ($3.74): 2♣ 7♥ 9♥ Q♠ 2♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.87 (Rem. Stack: $21.61), BB Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $3.56
2. Fish over barrel turn but overfold to donks OTR so we can call lighter OTT than theory and then develop river donking ranges. Again don't go too big as we are looking to fold out better air/5th pair type hands.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
CO ($44.25) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 17.7% | AGG: 22.6% | Hands: 1245]
BTN ($28.03) [VPIP: 36% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 46.9% | Flop Agg: 56.3% | Turn Agg: 45.5% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 23.1% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 50]
SB ($30.23) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 15.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 180]
HERO ($29.65) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 10.1% | Hands: 136287]
HJ ($28.58) [VPIP: 20.7% | PFR: 14.9% | AGG: 27.3% | Hands: 88]
Dealt to Hero: 8♠ J♠
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.75, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [17.05 effective]
Flop ($1.60): 6♦ T♦ 9♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.40 (Rem. Stack: $26.88), HERO Calls $0.40 (Rem. Stack: $28.50)
Turn ($2.40): 6♦ T♦ 9♥ K♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.80 (Rem. Stack: $25.08), HERO Calls $1.80 (Rem. Stack: $26.70)
River ($6): 6♦ T♦ 9♥ K♦ K♠
HERO Bets $3 (Rem. Stack: $23.70), BTN Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $5.70
It's similar to the selling of shovels analogy.
During the gold rush everyone went west to California to find gold, but the people who made the most money were the ones selling the shovels.
I don't really want to derail this thread too much with my own personal philosophies so I'll stick to strategy mainly but you asked 😀
Doing a new format for a video and should drop one in the next day or two.
The gold rush is pretty much over and the market is saturated. I think you'd do way better doing individual coaching or just focusing on live poker. I know you said you didn't like coaching before, but you're good at explaining your thought process clearly, and the biggest asset a coach can have is being able to communicate clearly in a way the student/client can understand.
youtube gold rush is over
1:1 coaching is crazy gold mine though.
i know sub-par coaches charging 100/hr
i know a very good coach charging 800/hr
crazy money if you fill your books
Thank you guys for checking in.
I do think coaching is getting out of hand, I've been seeing an influx in the coaching forums with crazy demands like IQ Tests and then CFP's where the main coach has a red line that just goes straight down.
I know a bunch of people are going to get burnt by these guys but people need to remember it's caveat emptor.
Okay another HH here.
I think if my opponent bets turn then we raise as we know there is an overfold here.
When he doesn't bet turn you need be checking this river because B-X-F is overfolded but B-X-B is overbluffed.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($25.35) [VPIP: 43.8% | PFR: 31.3% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 18]
HERO ($24.92) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 136562]
CO ($23.40) [VPIP: 27.4% | PFR: 22.6% | AGG: 38.1% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 16.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 20% | Hands: 64]
BTN ($32.23) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 15.7% | AGG: 29.5% | Hands: 1290]
SB ($25) [VPIP: 18.1% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 29% | Hands: 397]
Dealt to Hero: T♣ 9♣
HERO Raises To $0.50, CO Raises To $1.55, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1.05
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.33 effective]
Flop ($3.45): K♣ J♥ 5♠
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $21.03), HERO Calls $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $22.55)
Turn ($5.09): K♣ J♥ 5♠ 7♣
HERO Checks, CO Checks
River ($5.09): K♣ J♥ 5♠ 7♣ 6♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets $6.50 (Rem. Stack: $14.53), HERO Raises To $22.55 (allin), CO Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $17.19
Another fish hand that illustrates an important concept I don't hear talked about much.
There is a difference between frequency and composition for preflop ranges. So just because a fish only 3bets 8% and a reg 3bets 11%. Doesn't mean the fish is 3betting a stronger range.
A fish will call AA preflop sometimes where as a reg will never. And a fish will 3bet hands in that 8% range that a reg wouldn't even think about 3betting.
Fish hand history here
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30.70) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 31.1% | AGG: 41.7% | Hands: 48]
SB ($21.41) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 23.8% | AGG: 29.4% | Hands: 44]
BB ($25.77) [VPIP: 33.7% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 26.7% | Flop Agg: 60% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 17.9% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 75% | Hands: 79]
UTG ($29.01) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 38.5% | Hands: 82]
HERO ($34.17) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 136883]
CO ($26.82) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 47.4% | Hands: 1692]
Dealt to Hero: K♠ J♦
UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $1.60, HERO Calls $1.10
Hero SPR on Flop: [7.32 effective]
Flop ($3.30): J♠ 5♦ 3♠
BB Bets $3.30 (Rem. Stack: $20.87), HERO Calls $3.30 (Rem. Stack: $29.27)
Turn ($9.90): J♠ 5♦ 3♠ 7♠
BB Bets $7.42 (Rem. Stack: $13.45), HERO Calls $7.42 (Rem. Stack: $21.85)
River ($24.74): J♠ 5♦ 3♠ 7♠ A♥
BB Checks, HERO Checks
Spoiler
BB shows: T♠ 7♣
HERO wins: $23.51
The less common a spot the more we want to deviate from a solver.
In this spot a solver says my fold is over -69BB or -6900/100 loss in winrate.
They forgot to tell the solver my opponent has a WWSF of 35.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($30.13) [VPIP: 35% | PFR: 29.5% | AGG: 41.7% | Hands: 263]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 15.9% | AGG: 36.6% | Hands: 488]
HJ ($21.34) [VPIP: 36.1% | PFR: 13.9% | AGG: 24.2% | Hands: 127]
CO ($28.94) [VPIP: 24.9% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 363]
BTN ($27.99) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 23.4% | Flop Agg: 21% | Turn Agg: 29.5% | 3Bet: 7.1% | 4Bet: 14% | Fold to 4Bet: 66.7% | Hands: 1301]
HERO ($44.38) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | 3Bet: 10.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.9% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 137398]
Dealt to Hero: T♠ T♦
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.62, HERO Raises To $2.91, BB Folds, BTN Raises To $6.25, HERO Calls $3.34
Hero SPR on Flop: [1.71 effective]
Flop ($12.75): 4♠ 6♥ 6♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $6.30 (Rem. Stack: $15.44), HERO Calls $6.30 (Rem. Stack: $31.83)
Turn ($25.35): 4♠ 6♥ 6♦ 8♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $15.44 (allin), HERO Folds
Spoiler
BTN wins: $24.09
New video, I tried a different format this time.
New video, I tried a different format this time.
Loved the concepts shown in this one, would you generally be more selective when bluffing nittier opponents in these spots since they have a stronger betting range? I find these type of bluffs to work well vs most regs but feel like I run into it more often vs the 45 wwsf nits.
Loved the concepts shown in this one, would you generally be more selective when bluffing nittier opponents in these spots since they have a stronger betting range? I find these type of bluffs to work well vs most regs but feel like I run into it more often vs the 45 wwsf nits.
Thanks! Yeah really good question that I’m not completely sure about but I think it’s the opposite.
You want to bluff raise the 45 wwsf nits more because even though they have a stronger range they bluff catch less.
And then you want to bluff raise the good regs less because they will understand this spot better than the nits and bluff catch more.
The most important data point to me is how often they call my bluff raise not how relatively weak their betting range is.
I would still bluff both archetypes more than a solver though. The only time you have to be worried about over doing it is if you play the same regs over a lot hands in a small pool.
New video, I tried a different format this time.
Nice video. One thing that I’d caution against is trusting that data fully. I’ve looked at huge databases from different pools and there are drastic differences in play styles, even with fish. Fish from Ignition are mostly volatile maniacs, whereas the fish on GG are extremely passive and face up postflop. Regs are much nittier in GG, as well. I suspect at micros, they’re all the same, but small stakes is where the deviations start to occur.
Also, with known screen names and huds, people can hard counter pretty quickly if you go ham.
Nice video. One thing that I’d caution against is trusting that data fully. I’ve looked at huge databases from different pools and there are drastic differences in play styles, even with fish. Fish from Ignition are mostly volatile maniacs, whereas the fish on GG are extremely passive and face up postflop. Regs are much nittier in GG, as well. I suspect at micros, they’re all the same, but small stakes is where the deviations start to occur.
Also, with known screen names and hud
ty, yeah this data is 50nl-1knl data from Pokerstars/Ipoker/GG/888/WPN.
I would always be super aggro unless my opponents give me a reason not to be. If they call me once with a 0EV bluff catcher then we get them the next time with value.
The best thing about running a huge bluff on someone is it will always stick out in their mind. More so than any value hand.
I think people prefer Theory/MDA videos to play and explains so I'll stick with that for now. It works out because play and explains are way harder since you need good footage and it's not always easy to get spots.
Another video for today. Talking about 3BP concepts.
I think people prefer Theory/MDA videos to play and explains so I'll stick with that for now. It works out because play and explains are way harder since you need good footage and it's not always easy to get spots.
Another video for today. Talking about 3BP concepts.
On K652 reasons to only use a big turn bet size are you have more nuts and you can't really valuebet marginal hands like TT, 6x, and weaker Kx for a small size, because you're getting called by better a lot and aren't really denying any equity. You're basically making QQ and a lot of other hands bluffcatchers.
Short Saturday Video. Have a good weekend
Hi, new to this thread. Can you elaborate on why the commonality of a spot makes us want to adjust how much we deviate? Thanks and glgl
Thanks for checking out the thread.
Yeah so its harder to find bluffs in spots you’ve never played or rarely play in.
That’s why BTNvsBB and SBvsBB SRP are the two most overbluffed spots (very common) but 4bps are generally underbluffed (not common).
