War in CEE

Hopefully yes but he’ll not give up either as he’d be overthrown by his inner circle and held accountable, and since it’s not an option he’ll use all the necessary means to prevail

Do you know what “all physical resources” covers? Has ever since the WWII ended, places like refineries close to Moscow, ST. Petersburg were targeted by long range missiles? You might underestimate me, but don’t underestimate the situation. He has to do something before his own nation will riot against him due to inability to fuel a fckn car. And he will.

Russians en masse don’t give a flying fcuk about freedom, they gave it up almost immediately after pierestroyka and later after the Soviet Union collapse and initial fresh breeze of democracy, they quickly exchanged it for imperial ambitions that quickly resurrect there after every revolution, that old custom dates back to 1917. What they really care about tho is commodities. Give that to a Russian everyday person, a you have an obedient citizen. The ones that are more ambitious, they are given the freedom to steal from the less ambitious ones, under the gov protection (it’s called “krisha”, it translates roughly into roof or a pot lid). Now the Ukrainian counter attack are messing with commodities supply. This is the real problem for Putin, he cannot fight it with propaganda anymore, people are waiting 10+ hours in queues at gas station and plotting. That is dangerous for Putin personally, not for Russia

When I was like 12-14, for whatever reason I don’t get now, there was a daily broadcast in one of the first polish private tv channels, it aired around 11.30 PM or so and was called Kriminalnaya Rassiya. It was Russian made, with polish lector, that encouraged parents to excuse their children from the tv room if not sleeping yet. It described ‘90/‘00 edge times, with cruel precision. Murders, either mob or political ones (where difference?), were an organized enterprise back then. Daily dozens of killed in Moscow or st Pete. Executions by brutal mutilations, like the southern American cartels do now. Coincidentally it was the time when Putin arose to power. Guys, you don’t know sheet about Russia, me neither but I know that I don’t, and you don’t

The wording of a Russian doctrine has the same meaning as a bucket of cow **** when it comes to using nukes.

Would you run around in frenzy if he wrote death to the west or feel safer if he said that Russia and the west were besties? Because we have both of those and it doesn't matter because that isn't how things work.

Russia can go ahead and use nukes regardless of what provocative takes are written on paper, and it won't help them fill up their cars, the West would be driving their cars from then on.

I agree with the last one, but before the west takes over them cars, many casualties will occur. Eventually yes, but Putin will not surrender fast, it will be more like an emo quit. As per the war doctrine, well, these documents are useless until they are not.

And not, we’re not both of “those” with Russia. We kinda used to, but not anymore. Guy will not step down, it’s either him on nothing. If it was for some body to decide, like a committee in Soviet times, then they would probably settle, cause they had their citizens under control and wanted to just continue their high-life as party officials. Here is one guy that calls the shots and his life is at stake. When trying to understand a complex problem and consider possible solutions, always search for the cause, not the outcomes. You all “Russia weak can’t beat Ukraine” folks are just results oriented, which is pretty hilarious considering whereabouts

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bBMeMrPuQy...

I agree with this. There really isn't any collective Soviet decision making to preserve the system but just a one man army of unprecedented, centralized power and the Russians, as well as a lot of the world, are at the mercy of whatever he decides to do.

But the reality of all of this is that Putin has enough warheads to end civilization. Each warhead is more powerful than a Hiroshima bomb and he's got 6000 of them. So essentially, humanity is riding on Putin not having a bad day. That is literally the cold truth of it all.

If he were to decide to go that route over w/e issues with Ukraine or some Baltic state and decided to use one on them or just decided to fire one at New York for the fun of it, It would be the end of the modern world and the end of Russia completely. He'd have to completely annihilate the world (which he could) in one swoop because the US and NATO would click and delete Russia's presence in an hour.

This while including all the people around Putin will collectively go ahead with this great idea of holding hands and jumping into the volcano together for what again? An economic slump? Old age? They've had the power to blow up the world for 60 years now but there are good reasons why that happening isn't as close to a reality as people think.

I’m glad we came to a respectful disagreement. Now let’s wait for time to join the chat. As for my personal opinion, there’s a huge difference between detonating one over NATO territory, in exchange to blowing some weak ones over the area that Russia (and 60-70% Russians, or more) believes it belongs to Russia (or literally is Russia, but there are some EU backed nazis that temporarily control it)

Look, yet another paranoid idiot (or not?) https://m.youtube.com/shorts/iSUKPWz598A

Okay, let’s suppose Option A: Putin targets Kyiv with a nuke. Sure, it would cause a horrific humanitarian catastrophe, but it would do little, if anything, to stop Ukraine from fighting back. A single detonation does not fix logistics, command, supply lines, or partisan resistance, and it would only harden Western resolve to strike Russian forces and cut Moscow off economically. That global embargo would last as long as Putin does. Detonating a nuclear weapon under those conditions would be unforgivable, permanently burning any chance of normal trade or international reintegration.

The point with all that being, if you think Putin is feeling pressure now over the economic situation. To what end? Putin doesn’t just want Ukraine for Russia; he wants to be able to sell their resources to the rest of the world. That would no longer be a live option, nor would getting back into the world, which we all know h’s desperate for. He doesn’t want to end up like Kim Jong Un, running a hermit country.

Moscow wouldn’t fall apart. Russians, if anything, are resilient, and Russia produces most of its staples, so they won’t be starving. But the ruble would likely collapse, imported goods would disappear, tech and medicine would dry up, and elites would hoard whatever’s left. Think late-USSR vibe and that’s just the first few months.

You mentioned earlier that Russians are waiting seven hours to get gas. Well as things drag on that won’t be a problem much longer, because they won’t be able to fix or replace the cars once they break or their cell phones, televisions, home appliances, etc. either. And it will just keep getting worse and worse until Putin is gone. As I said, if he does that there's no path back into the world. And it will be brutal. 'Russian' will literally become the new 'Nazi'. But unlike back then with Germany, Russians have access to the internet. I think that’s the key factor you’re ignoring with the “baby nuke” strike on Kyiv because of economic hardships in Russia.

Contrast that with Option B: not deploying a nuke. Russia keeps what's left of its international legitimacy, China and India can keep buying its energy without risking their own economies, and sanctions pressure stays heavy but survivable. Moscow retains some leverage in global markets, the economy stabilizes enough to sustain the war at a slower pace, and Putin keeps at least the possibility of negotiating limited sanctions relief down the road or, more importantly, the chance to end this in some face-saving “we won” manner and begin reintegrating Russia back into a rapidly, technologically advancing world. And factor this in too: we’ve all seen how China has built its military up over the last twenty years. Putin hasn’t done anything remotely like that. Instead, he’s pilfered it, along with a lot of other things. That’s not the mindset of someone like Hitler, or even the old USSR with its imperialist goals.

Putin’s not stupid. Which option do you think he’d see as +EV?

Good point. It's one thing to say Putin has unilateral control of Russia, but another to say the same about Russian lives. I'd say the same about North Korea. If Kim Jong Un had a bad day and ordered a nuclear strike on D.C., I don't think it's a given it would happen. Everyone involved in the process knows that if North Korea launched an ICBM at the U.S., we'd know about it within seconds. Within minutes, an irreversible launch of 80-100 nukes would be underway and North Korea would be over within an hour or so. Maybe Kim and a few hundred people could survive in bunkers for a while, but even that’s debatable. And even if they'll still be killed shortly. That's like Jim Jones motives. And I think the same would hold for tactical nukes, with the exception of Russian territories getting over run, which we have no desire to do.

Putin would never target Kiev, for the same reason that Americans didn’t bomb Tokyo and not only that. Aside from the countless casualties, kiev is not entirely and Ukrainian city, it’s a part of Russia’s history, with direct trains between Moscow and kiev for more than 100 years, Russian people have hundreds of thousand relatives there, and prior to invasion which actually began in 2014, all important stuff in kiev was conducted in Russian language. My father ran a glazing company that supplied windows to Ukraine since ‘00, I’ve been there myself too. What he would do - in my opinion - he’ll blow one in some loosely populated area the day before he hits the wall economically and militarily, but only then. Even if he hits the wall regardless, my “contention” is that he’d see it as the only possible way to deter the west from literally conventional-bombing all his critical infrastructure, using Ukraine as a launching pad (yes, he started that war, but now it turned against him). Would that be +EV for him? I don’t know. Necessary? He himself might think so. Using the analogy - he reached the FT as a largest stack, being sure he’ll ship it, but now, after losing almost all of his chips and being the shortest stack, despite all the other players agreeing to some deal, he’s still pursuing that 1st place as he already spent all his remaining roll on some other buyins in the meantime. he’s not in the +cEV circumstances anymore, it’s peak ICM for him

Kiev’s history

Kiev or some remote forest = unconditional surrender of Ukraine and NATO moving majority of its troops to eastern flank. That would be like the world stopped spinning, reset of the status quo.

I don’t think Russia’s economy is anywhere near the point of collapse. Painful, yes, but collapse, no. Their PPP per capita is roughly on par with Hungary’s, and that’s after two years of war and sanctions. They’ve adapted enough through energy sales, imports through third countries, and internal substitution to keep things running. He’s facing long-term stagnation, not sudden failure. The real problem isn’t that the economy’s about to implode, it’s that it’s stuck — no growth, limited innovation, and a shrinking talent base. But that’s a slow grind, not a cliff.

Even the “demo shot in the desert” version has a huge downside. The moment he lights one off anywhere, the entire balance of the war changes. Every neutral country distances itself, China and India have to pull back and the West goes all in on sanctions and conventional strikes. Within a year, Russia’s PPP would be in line with countries like Serbia or Iran.

Why would he risk ruin like that if he doesn't have to? You don't have a good answer for that. If any part of the West thought the way you're thinking, you wouldn't have to go to some obscure website to get your info because the entire planet would be sounding the alarm bell and putting all the pressure they could on Putin and the Russians. So what makes you qualified or what do you know the rest of the world is ignorant of?

Nope. And the political and economic consequences for failing, faltering Russia, as the world's worst rogue state, having used nuclear weapons without provocation, aren't anything that Vlad can afford to contemplate.

History. There’s also one factor you might consider irrelevant, but has just intensified - Putin’s ego in context. Nethanyahu can, Trump can, why can’t I? Timing has never been better

Also this. Consider it my “he’s not entirely bonkers” doctors notice

I re-read your last long post for the third time and I think I’ve found the thing we can’t agree on, or rather why we can’t agree on it - you’re describing Russia as of today, still on their feet, poor but steady etc. that’s all true. I’m referring to Russia in the nearby future - like end of this month or earlier - Russia without heat and electricity. You wanted a motive, here it is

Okay, that’s a plausible motive. But based on how their economy is running today, I don’t see that happening without some other internal or external factor causing it. And I’m not aware of anyone suggesting that kind of economic crash is imminent, either.

So unless I’m missing something, the only way I can see what you’re describing is if NATO attacks Russia’s energy grid. Obviously, that would be an act of war and we’d be in WWIII. But that puts the issue of motive back on the West: why would NATO do that?

NATO would never do that without the probable cause, that’s why Ukraine is doing it right now, with the probable cause and nato’s missilery:

caption says that trump agreed to long range strikes and pi’s shows the first one, heating facility in Belogrod, Russia

Would the world be a better place without Trump, Putin, and Netanyahu? I think anyone with any decency knows the answer to that question.

Im afraid it’s not only about them personally, but about people’s desires nowadays. They’ve all been elected in a public, democratic voting and although voters were manipulated into choosing them, the elections (even in Russia!) we’re not rigged as they simply didn’t have to. If ppl weren’t sooo stupid (Americans included), they wouldn’t gag on that fake news that told them to choose the candidate they’ve chosen. Putin only rigs elections in Belarus as Lukashenko is weak and nobody except elderly people votes for him, Belarus has another president, kind of in absentia, that is recognized by the west - Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. As for the polls in Russia, Putin has a 60-80% support, but that might change now