NBA 2024-25 Season Thread

Through LeBron James all basketball things are possible.

Amen.

Well look, I’m the biggest LeBron fan there is but the game needs to do what it needs to do.

But while 3 point variance is absolutely a thing right now, there is undoubted complexity in how teams increase or decrease the quality of those shots, and maximising asset accumulation, efficient cap expenditures and good coaching remain key needle movers.

If the rules makers make significant changes, then the likelihood is the new guardrails are once again solved. We’re never going back to the dumb vibes based pre data era, and potential solutions need to account for that reality.

why was hubie brown last game on some sunday daytime game the day of the superbowl?

that is a random time for it

shouldve went out on a bigger game

I don't believe there is any 3 point problem. I think outside shooting has made the game better.

But if I had the other opinion, I'd reckon an easy solution is to slightly decrease the circumference of the rim. That makes outside shooting more difficult and less appealing.

I just don’t think the genie is ever getting put back in the bottle regards offense. I appreciate people ITT are not arguing the same as the talking heads on ESPN. The game will never be like the 2000s again. The quality of player across the league is ever improving - more and more players on an NBA floor at any one time can shoot, can defend multiple positions / situations and can handle complex setups offensively / defensively.

We’re never going back to slow half court setup for an unchallenged pass into the post, and we see a guy try to back down / use his “bag”’on an opponent, with minimal thought of popping it out to an open shooter beyond the arc. Players will prioritise a 3 / 4 point shot over a long 2/3 point shot, We’re always going to have shooters on the back side, we’re always going to have more complex two man games into secondary screens, etc and fundamentally more players will find ways to break open to take more shots that have a better chance of falling compared to 30 years ago.

Sometimes I think what people are really complaining about is deep rooted. It’s not the 3 pointers but it’s the data nerds and a relentless approach to the game that is beyond the “eye test”. The skill level of the players, what they are asked to do, how they are asked to do it - all of that is completely different to decades past and will never change

I think all they need to do is get rid of corner 3s. Just have the 3 line run out of bounds about parallel to the free throw line or so and it restricts the area a bit for shooters. This takes away the "best shot in basketball ".

I really think this is the best compromise and I wouldn't mind seeing it for a pre-season (or D league) run at first and then give it a go.

Yeah I like this too. Corner 3 is almost a gimmick at this point.

Corner 3!
- Peter Griffin

I think this is spot on and kind of the natural life cycle of almost everything honestly.

Thing is cool->thing gets popular and profitable->because it's popular/profitable, people are incentivized to maximize their edges->Thing gets "solved"

In basketball that means we went from "Plumbers and Short White Guys" to "Only take 3s and shots within 2ft of the rim, every other shot is -EV".

When you watch a game we still have mid range shooting, just less of it. There are still battles in the post, but less possessions are designed to end up that way. We still have transitional offense leading to big dunks, we still have blocks and great defense. It’s all there still. Players are nicer and smoother than ever, the game is genuinely glorious to watch still.

It’s just that there’s way more stuff that players frankly could not do well in 2004, every trip down the court. And player archetypes and player behaviours people enjoyed have been relentlessly purged from the NBA.

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The other deep rooted thing going on is people simply don’t like the shift of leverage to players in terms of where they play and for how long. Again, that genie is never getting put back in the bottle either.

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So I’m open to trialling ideas, but there needs to be a very clear understanding of the problem trying to be solved first.

Three pointers are really just long free throws with an outsize point premium. That's why it's boring. Casual fans can easily see that there's no real defense for it given the % of chucks that either open or wide open (nearly all of them). Summary on data pull from NBA site:

The bit casual fans have wrong is that a) it's easy to generate those open/wide-open shots quickly and in the offensive rhythm you want to play with, b) it's easy to put out shooters who can knock them down at high enough a clip without giving off huge trade-offs elsewhere.

Shooting the 3 is an endpoint of a possession; if you are casually observing, it is easy to miss the setup/actions that lead to the three being shot.

I also think casual fans probably love it when LeBron or Curry pulls up from the logo when they're feeling it and drains a three.

I do personally love how LeBron has significantly improved his 3 point shot in the twilight if his career.

Can’t wait to see him and Luka play together!!!

It's almost like we got to see what happens when a generational talent devoted his life to being the best player he can be, rather than retiring every 3 years while drinking Miller Lites and smoking cigars.

There's a middle ground to the 3 point shooting contest defenseless game of today vs the 2000s slogs.

I mean, it bears out in the postseason. Players actually play defense and games. Every NBA Finals game last year had one of the teams score under 100 points. Plenty of postseason games last year where the winning team scored around 100 points. On Saturday with 11 games, only one team scored fewer than 100 points

That just shows that the problem is something else. Probably the regular season being too long, and the players being too rich. Nothing to do with the better brand of 3 point shooting offense.

Well that’s a fair point - do we really want to change rules that would impact the integrity of the post season?

I don't really have any solutions. The real solution for many issues is to reduce the number of games in basically every sport, but this won't happen because of money. I personally don't watch the NBA until the postseason, and even most of the first round is skippable.

What options are being discussed here or in the league to reduce 3s? I haven't really heard, but only heard a passing reference to it a few weeks ago on ESPN. I repeated this at the poker table a week or so ago and was scoffed at, and I'm not on top of it enough to know what is happening. They were saying, "How is that possible? No way to do it."

Friday night a week ago I'm at the poker table at Caesars, big screen above us. Some team down 3 with 3 seconds to go, thru it underneath and laid it in. I wondered aloud how that was even possible in today's NBA climate where everything is 3s. I think it was a 113-112 final Friday night 10days ago. Might have been the Nuggets.

Well it's not totally funny but just LOL at the Mavs for getting one game out of AD instead of 15 more years out of Luka. Not that trading Luka was all bad, but you need youthful stars and draft choices as the primary swap, not Mr. Glass.

One game. Is there any comparables for such an epic trade breaking down in the first game?

Lakers made the greatest trade ever. The Davis injury would've 95% happened regardless of who he played for.

Not to address your larger point, but I think "just less of it" kind of understates the fundamental transformation that's happened in the NBA.

2004-2005
Most FG/gm 15-19ft: 21.9
Least FG/gm 15-19ft: 11.1

2014-2015:
Most FG/gm 15-19ft: 18.4
Least FG/gm 15-19ft: 4.6 (HOU, 2nd place is 8.6)

2024-2025:
Most FG/gm 15-19ft: 8.0
Least FG/gm 15-19ft: 1.7

With the exception of the James Harden Rockets, every time now is shooting fewer middies than the lowest team was shooting just 10 years ago. Yeah, it's technically "less of them" but so much so we've nearly removed them from the game.

It was always painfully obvious that contested mid range jumpers were a bad strategy.

I think LeBron is better than Jordan

Silver floated the idea of only awarding 2 FTs for fouled 3PT shooters, at least outside of the final 2:00. The idea being that you'll get more aggressive contests. Zaza rule would presumably still apply though for F1 so not sure it changes it all that much. I think another thing they could look at is getting rid of gather / zero step on these ridiculous jump-backs. I mean look at this idiotic **** there's no way to guard this and also hedge against getting your doors blown off downhill:

The stepback 3 needs rules re-written imho.