English Premier League 2024-25
2024-2025 EPL Preview
Man City have set another record with 115 charges of financial shenanigans and also managed to win a 4th PL title in a row becoming the first team to do so narrowly beating out arsenal who took it to the last day this year. They accomplished this by rattling off an absurd 33 games unbeaten in all competitions making it 6 titles in 7 years for the Citizens.
Some pictures from the aftermath:
Golden boot winner:
Erling Haaland
Golden Glove:
David Raya
Player of the Season:
Phil Foden
PFA Young Player of the Season:
Cole Palmer
2024-25 Point Spread Markets:
Title Odds:
Top 4 Odds:
Relegation Odds:
League Adjusted xgDiff per game table (LOL UNITED):
Season Preview:
Man City and Arsenal have distanced themselves as the clear favorites for the title. With Arsenal closing the gap and beating Man City on xG could this be the year that they get over the line? There are some large error bars on Liverpool with klopp retiring and Salah getting older, will they be able to insert themselves in the title race again like they did last year?
For top 4/5 can Aston Villa repeat last years feat thanks to the normal culprits being completely incompetent or will one of Chelsea/United get their **** together finally (hopefully not)? Spurs went full Spurs throwing the match vs City to stop arsenal from winning the title while costing themselves top 4 in the process, will they be in the race again despite doing no business at all in the summer to address squad needs?
The relegation fight as usual has the 3 promoted teams as favorites to go back down, but with PSR looming in the background could we see a surprise team relegated?
Most anyone in the analytics community has 0 respect for that account and it's basically a narrative wind up merchant/clock bait.
xG is still easily the best predictive and descriptive stat available for team quality.
When xG was first a thing, everyone was so keen to insist that it was not for predictions, only for post match analysis.
When did that change?
When xG was first a thing, everyone was so keen to insist that it was not for predictions, only for post match analysis.
When did that change?
I don't remember that, but this is how like literally everything in the world works. Things evolve. People learn new things, concepts get tweaked and develop.
Also, aren't tools that analyze the past almost always likely to be useful to predict the future?
If you''re working with a huge sample size.
The thing that I hate most about it is that it has produced the symptom of less shooting from distance. It is being trained out of players.
Why take a 0.03 xG shot when you can play another 20 passes and hopely come up with a 0.2 chance. All well and good if it happens, but we are seeing a lot more plays getting bogged down on the wings.
For me, it started with the latter Wenger years when a common compaint was that they were constantly striving for the perfect goal.
It's not only about sample size, it's also about adaptation. Once teams begin to change their method of attack a little (to account for xG?) the historic data become obsolete.
It goes back a lot further than the dreaded Frenchman, to an Englishman Graham Taylor. When they analysed goals scored in the top divisions they found that the most effective way to score was through long balls to target men. Once teams adapted to this it rendered Taylor's data redundant.
It's not only about sample size, it's also about adaptation. Once teams begin to change their method of attack a little (to account for xG?) the historic data become obsolete.
It goes back a lot further than the dreaded Frenchman, to an Englishman Graham Taylor. When they analysed goals scored in the top divisions they found that the most effective way to score was through long balls to target men. Once teams adapted to this it rendered Taylor's data redundant.
Ahh the old Taylor instruction of sending the left winger sprinting for kick off and hoofing the diagonal.
Watch every England game for the mid 90s and that’s what happened. Even when we had ‘the left sided problem’.
Feels a bit weird having Villa vs Liverpool in the league at the same time Man City play Real Madrid in Spain but should be a good one tomorrow.
I was at The Etihad in August to see city play Ipswich. I thought there was zero shot Ipswich could stay up. But they aren’t drawing dead
Still play Wolves and Leicester. I sat next to a nice Ipswich family on the train back so I have a soft spot to see them survive
If you''re working with a huge sample size.
The thing that I hate most about it is that it has produced the symptom of less shooting from distance. It is being trained out of players.
Why take a 0.03 xG shot when you can play another 20 passes and hopely come up with a 0.2 chance. All well and good if it happens, but we are seeing a lot more plays getting bogged down on the wings.
Right they're coming up with ways of improving your likelihood of scoring. Same reasons you see more short corners etc.
A 0.2 chance is more than 6x as likely to be a goal as a 0.03 chance, of course you go for that if you understand that. Game continually evolves.
Right they're coming up with ways of improving your likelihood of scoring. Same reasons you see more short corners etc.
A 0.2 chance is more than 6x as likely to be a goal as a 0.03 chance, of course you go for that if you understand that. Game continually evolves.
And Scott Parker has his team constantly passing it around the penalty area and recycling the ball looking for one of these higher xG chances that never comes and sucking the life out of the fans.
I like the cut of this Gasperini chap's
.
Emery is and was my favorite manager all of the time.
Although it is too bad we dont have a striker to make this really interesting
Cmon Villa I just shouted you out.
Painful watching Nunez
NEW: Sir Jim Ratcliffe has implemented a “zero-based budgeting” policy, in which every single item of expenditure is scrutinised in an attempt to drive down costs.
Cartons of screws are being individually counted by the group property services team at Manchester United. Meanwhile, staff have noted how the portion sizes in the canteen at Old Trafford are smaller now and there is less variety, and bulk orders of vegetables at Carrington require sign-off.
One employee joked it would be easier to “smuggle drugs” than to send a letter, with envelopes scarce, stamps expensive and the emphasis very much on email.
@TelegraphDucker
This is the plan to cut debt?
These Sirs are broke aren't they? And they thought this was bringing change. Lol
Christ, looks like Sir Jim is actually a big budget Karren Brady - a good, old-fashioned, count the biscuits and tea bags CEO. This approach will definitely haul them up the table and deal with their clear problems with player recruitment that have destroyed the club over the last few years.
