GOAT NBA Discussion: Biggest fraud poster: fallguy. Super AIDS Containment thread

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"Thinking Basketball" says that Jordan's 1st three-peat casts were 1st Round caliber, since they were only in the 75th percentile and therefore worse than 25% of casts, or all 2nd Round opponents (7 of 28 teams).

[Url=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RqGDLV-do9c&t=12m00s]Here's[/Url] the YouTube of him saying 75th percentile for the 91-93' casts... (0 percentile for the 88-90' casts btw, so the worst in the league).

The one full season MJ was out the Bulls win 54 wins (6th best in the league) only 3 wins back from the 2nd best team. They make it to the 2nd round (after sweeping the first round) and take a team that makes the Finals to 7 games.

Obvious conclusion... They are only a 1st round caliber team.

Also quotes from that video "[+/- stats] affirm that Jordan's supporting cast radically improved during their title winning seasons, not necessarily Michael himself", "his teams were plenty competitive without him", and "when he was in the game other all-time clubs were comparably dominant". It also showed that Lebron has a significantly better multi-year playoff stretch for on/off +/- differential (16-21) than Jordan's best (89-93).

stop it .
lebron had **** in 2015 in the final, carried scoring load in every imaginable way.
he had love as a second option vs a goat team in 2018 lol...

in 2017 yes he had a good team , he totally crush the east until the final vs a goat team , so whats the problem ?

no idea wtf you talking about in 2010 but it doesnt make much sense lol...

It's math, which "Thinking Basketball" (TB) and you guys are supposed to be good at..

So let's review what we know... 75th percentile = worse than 25% of casts, or all 2nd Round opponents (7 of 28 teams)... aka 1st round caliber... and that was the PEAK during the 1st three-peat, so most of the time we're talking lottery casts.

The fact that the 94' Bulls got lucky against the most injured team ever in the 1st Round does little to disprove TB's stats - teams get lucky and face injury-decimated teams all the time and you guys use that excuse frequently because it's a real thing.. Those Cavs were missing their entire starting 5 except Mark Price, otherwise Daughtery, Nance, Hot Rod and Gerald Wilkins would've gotten long-awaited revenge and destroyed the Bulls without Jordan (just like the Knicks did before the Kukoc miracle avoided an 0-3 deficit).

And again, the greatest chemistry ever was never going to immediately crater, but a lot of bad teams win 55 games and then are never heard from again - it makes sense that the goat chemistry would follow this path and then eventually succumb to lack of talent.. Any team with Pippen as the 1st option will lack the capacity to add talent, since any decent scorer will supplant Pippen as 1st option... This is why secondary producers like Klay, Pippen or Middleton aren't considered "franchise players" that are asked to build something from scratch... Pippen was simply handed a fully-developed goat dynasty, which he cratered to barely .500 in less than 18 months.

The video said that Jordan's cast improved from 0 percentile or worst in the league, to 75th percentile and still worse than 25% of casts, or all 2nd Round opponents (7 of 28 teams)... aka 1st round caliber... and that was the PEAK during the 1st three-peat, so most of the time we're talking lottery casts.

^^^ only the 17' Warriors.

He says the 91' bulls and 17' Warriors were the most dominant title runs ever.

But these aren't regular season numbers where everyone plays the same opponents - the playoff numbers are opponent-dependant, so these numbers mean literally nothing.

Again, the playoff numbers are opponent-dependant, so these numbers mean literally nothing.

Furthermore , the 5-year consecutive stretches included Jordan's baseball year in 94' when he didn't play.. The proper way to compare is to look at the top 5 seasons for each player, without requiring that they be consecutive.. And runs like Lebron's 1st Round loss in 2021 shouldn't be included.. TB also compares good teams for Lebron/Shaq to stretches that included bad teams for Jordan and 0 percentile casts... But Jordan had 16, 23, and 12-point differentials during the 2nd three-peat, so let's see what Lebron and Shaq did during 3 title years... Jordan also has goat-level +/- differential in 89' when he didn't win, and THE goat differential in 1990 - it was so big in 1990 that the chart only shows that it's at least +28... So Jordan's impact was goat, but the time periods that TB compared aren't apples to apples and cherry-picked - MJ would come out on top of you just looked at the top 5 differentials from each guy's career (not consecutive to include baseball year or 0 percentile casts), or used 2 to 3-year stretches.

He never won on the championship level while carrying the scoring load, and the 15' Finals is a great example of him being too ball-dominant at high scoring levels to beat top teams.. He also played exactly like Iverson or Westbrick with 39% chucking and zero defense... He was horrible in that series but for some reason his Westbricking and Iverson play gets praised by Klutch fraud victims.

Harden nearly beat them and even AD won a game off them, so why is Lebron allowed to get swept by record amount?

Lebron simply sucks and all his horrific losses despite great all-star teammates prove it.. Love was a top 10 player in 2014 and top 4 in all the stats like PER, BPM, etc - so the goat is supposed to have a dynasty with him.

^^^ so it's a knock that he only won 53 games and therefore was a big underdog..

It should've been a clash of titans like the 80's Celtics/Lakers, and he should've won if he's truly a goat candidate... But instead he was demolished as if he had a bad team just like so many other seasons - that means he's a fraud

You can't respond, so you're playing dumb.. It's the oldest trick in the book and a sign of losing.

The 2010 Cavs had better defenses than the 1st three-peat Bulls, while also having a 20k scorer and better scorer than Pippen at 3rd option.. So they had better help than the 1st three-peat Bulls on both sides of the ball..

They were a 7th year organic juggernaut that was heavily-favored to win the title heading into the playoffs and their 2nd Round upset loss... If OKC loses on Sunday to a +500 underdog, we know that's what Lebron did twice in 09' and 10'.. So he never "ruled the East" because he lost twice as an OKC-level favorite before fleeing to form super-teams.

Once a man has been radicalized there is no going back. There is only blind fanaticism. The eternal Jihad taking place in this thread.

^^^ what a projection by Lebron fans

I never said that Jordan's championship casts were 1st Round caliber - your hero said that - Thinking Basketball said that Jordan's casts began as 0 percentile casts and the worst in the league, but they improved to 1st Round caliber from 91-93' (75th percentile, which is worse than all 2nd Round teams).

So I'm just the messenger - you're killing the messenger.

And again, you're projecting regarding who actually fell for a fraud... You guys are the ones that fell for the guy that lost in the 1st Round with Luka or AD.... You fell for a lesser dominator, such as lower PER, BPM, VORP, WS/48, etc...

And you fell for the lesser winner and someone that lost more lost 4th quarter leads than anyone in history, while also having worst-ever clutch efficiency and turnovers... He lost multiple fourth quarter leads in the 07' Finals, 09' ECF, 10' ECSF, 11' Finals, and 21-25' Playoffs (an absolute joke - 1000 players in history would've done better with AD or Luka)...

You guys fell for the guy that has a losing record with every type of good team, such as 3-4 with preseason favorites, or 4-8 with all-star teammates, or 4-5 with 1 or 2 seeds, and 4-6 with Finals teams.. The goat standard is to be undefeated in these scenarios.

His teams are preseason favorites and therefore favored on-paper, so it's the bad chemistry that causes the weak regular season and fall to Finals underdog - i.e. he doesn't need more help and just needs to foster better chemistry.

These are facts, not jihad.... When Lebron entered the league, no one expected him to give up after year 7 and team up with opponents thereafter... So you're the one that supports the biggest underachiever of expectation ever.. You support the jijad... Lebron lost as the favorite 5 times and fell from preseason favorite to underdog or loser for 6 straight years from 11' to 16' - these are clear-cut failures of expectation.. Lebron had 6 straight preseason favorites but couldn't develop a dynasty and let Curry or Duncan have the dynasties and best teams on his watch.

many misconceptions itt

^^^ they improved to 1st Round caliber, or 75th percentile, which is worse than 25% of casts, or all 2nd Round opponents (7 of 28 teams).

Again, the video clearly states that Jordan's cast improved from 0 percentile or worst in the league, to the 75th percentile, which is still worse than 25% of casts - this would include all 2nd Round opponents (7 of 28 teams), aka 1st round caliber...

and that was the PEAK during the 1st three-peat, so most of title casts were below the 75th percentile and therefore approaching lottery levels.

^^^ that means nothing because the Bulls had the least all-star help of any dynasty, so I would expect other dynasties to be MORE dominant, not just "comparably" dominant like the video states... And yet the bulls WERE the most dominant, since the video states that the 91' bulls and 17' Warriors were the most dominant title runs ever... So MJ's teams had goat dominance despite the least help - the least star help of any dynasty.

The 5-year stretches are cherry-picked to include years where Shaq and Lebron had equal-scoring partners or were outright 2nd-leading scorers, and therefore got a few extra minutes with the 2nd unit compared to a team-carrier like MJ... The video states that 2nd options like Pippen or David Robinson often led the 2nd unit, so 2nd options Lebron and Shaq were also getting a few extra minutes with the 2nd unit compared to a team-carrier like MJ.

Accordingly, the stretches aren't apples to apples based on this dynamic of 1st option carrier vs 2nd unit minutes, or the dynamic of using Jordan's best dynasty years but not comparing them to Lebron's most winning years (09-13')... The 5-year stretch from 2009 to 2013 is the proper stretch to compare to Jordan, but apparently Lebron's casts were playing well during this stretch and didn't make the cut to compare to Jordan.

But the biggest factor is the small sample size of a playoff run and the resulting variance, such as Jordan's cast from 88' performing better than most of his title casts.. This type of variance from the tiny sample sizes makes the entire analysis meaningless.. In addition to the small sample, the playoff runs are opponent-dependent (they aren't regular season numbers where everyone plays the same comp).. So the numbers are completely meaningless due to these 2 factors (small sample and opponent-dependent numbers)... Finally, the stretches selected include Jordan's baseball year, or years where he had bad teams and 0 percentile casts (compared to Shaq and Lebron's 5-year stretches of good teams)... For all these reasons, the numbers are a useless gauge of a player's impact..

What happened to the Lakers winning the title?

I guess there's always next year for fallguy to have a wrong prediction. He's pretty much a grandmaster at being wrong.

Lebron underperformed favored talent like he always does by losing as the favorite for the 5th time.

No dynasty with Luka... No dynasty with AD... No dynasty with Wade... No dynasty with Kyrie.

No dynasty no matter who we put around him = objectively inferior to MJ, Duncan, Curry, Kobe, many more

And we know why Lebron can't produce great teams - it's because his skillset turns everyone into spot-up shooter, thus preventing player development, chemistry, and elite roster construction.. It shouldn't be a surprise that a hybrid of Harden or Luka-ball (bron-ball) is 4-6 on the championship level.

I'm right about Thinking Basketball, who said that Jordan's cast improved from 0 percentile or worst in the league, to the 75th percentile during the 1st three-peat, which is still worse than 25% of casts, or all 2nd Round opponents (7 of 28 teams), aka 1st round caliber cast.

This makes sense, since the Bulls had the least scoring help and rim protection in the league, while also having the worst defense among contenders - this includes worse defenses than 5 of 6 Finals or ECF opponents (91' Pistons, 91' Lakers, 92' Knicks, 92' Blazers, 93' Knicks).

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Outline of factors that disqualify Lebron from goat:

A) Never produced a dynasty/great team

B) Low team ceiling regardless of cast (i.e. produces perennial Finals underdogs and losers)

* Perennial Finals underdog status was due to inferior chemistry and not needing more roster help, since the rosters were initially favored on-paper in the preseason

C) Produces low ball movement and assist teams that caused assist deficits in every series loss of Lebron's 18 playoff runs

* Lebron's ball-dominance increases his teammates' assisted buckets/assisted rate, aka "turns everyone into spot-up shooter", which craters their assists and causes low assist teams... These low assist teams caused assist deficits in every series loss of Lebron's 18 playoff runs.

D) Zero young player development in 22 years (zero young players grew into meaningful producers on his watch), aka turns everyone into spot-up shooter

E) Couldn't win organically with "normal" rosters of 1 franchise player and needed to join opposing franchise players

* his skillset of imposing spot-up roles doesn't develop young players, thereby needing ready-made stars

F) Bad at chemistry

* Lebron's high-scoring, primary ball-handler (aka "ball-dominator") skillset imposes spot-up roles, which prevents elite roster construction, chemistry, player development and great teams.

G) Can't carry scoring load vs top teams (too ball-dominant at high scoring levels)

* Lebron's inability to carry the "star" category of scoring requires more stars and prevents GM's from getting defensive help or good role players.. So Lebron's inability to carry the scoring load prevents elite roster construction compared to MJ, while his aforementioned skillet of imposing spot-up roles further hampers roster construction.

H) The goat meltdown and goat choke in 2010 and 2011, respectively

I) MVP quality

* only half of Lebron's MVP's include titles/FMVP's, while none include scoring title and only half include all-defense

J) Defense (all-defense for short 5-year window, and none in his 30's)

K) Getting locked up in a playoff series

* 26 on 35% and 5 TO's in 08' 2nd Round

* 22 on 35% and 6 TO's in 07' Finals

* 18 ppg in 11' Finals

* only 26 ppg in two 7-game series losses (06', 08'), or the 10' meltdown vs Celtics

* 12 series under 25 ppg

L) Teammates led in scoring for entire title runs (20'), or would-be title runs (11')

M) Reputation for losing 4th quarter leads

* lost multiple 4th quarter leads in 07' Finals, 09' ECF, 10' ECSF, 11' Finals, and 21-25 Playoffs

N) WOAT clutch efficiency and turnovers

O) Weaknesses in individual game:

* FT's, turnovers, offensive rebounding, mid-range, running or scoring off screens aka "off-ball", and more

P) No bag

Q) Losing with homecourt (5 times)

R) All-time leader in turnovers, missed shots, and Finals losses

S) Losing record with every type of good team:

* 3-4 with preseason favorites
* 4-8 with all-star teammates
* 4-5 with 1 or 2 seeds
* 4-6 with Finals teams

T Everyone's ragdoll, aka lottery record vs Warriors, Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, T'Wolves and Magic despite being in prime with all-star teammates and/or preseason favorites

U) 0-7 on last possession of Finals game, aka never scored on last possession of a 1-possession Finals game

V) Goat failure of expectation

* When Lebron entered the league, no one expected that he would give up after Year 7 and team up with opponents thereafter

* Lebron never "ruled the East" because he lost twice as an OKC-level favorite in 09' and 10', which forced him to flee and put the top 3 players in the conference on 1 team (the "decision").

* His upset losses in 09' and 10' came on the heels of getting locked up in 07' and 08', so he wet the bed for 4 straight years and was forced to flee to form super-teams.

Took him 2 hours to get the post just right*

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Playing against MJ was one of the biggest days of a player's life, but this was GONE in 1994 - sleeping opponents were in place of this:

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/CrXFPkcvOkk
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gSuW6BdCU2...

The 1994 season wasn't "Jordan's cast", since he had never played with any of those guys previously.. That's why your post above is wrong and one of the reasons the Thinking Basketball analysis of casts is ridiculously wrong and meaningless.

Everyone was new on the 94' roster except Pippen, BJ, and Horace - literally everyone else was upgraded.... Kukoc was the closer and pure scorer that MJ never had with 19 ppg capability outside the system and 4 game-winners in the 94' regular season alone (and the playoff save).

So Jordan's "cast" didn't do anything - it was a new and upgraded roster that was better top to bottom than anything Jordan ever had.. This superior help in addition to sleeping opponents (bolded above) led to the 94' Bulls being one of the many bad teams that win 50-something games in a fluke season... This showed in the playoffs and following season

The 94' Bulls were the only team in the league that lacked a 2nd scorer.. Any team with Pippen as the leading scorer will lack capacity to add talent, since any decent scorer will supplant Pippen as 1st option... This is why secondary producers like Klay, Pippen and Middleton aren't considered franchise players that teams build around, and that are tasked with building teams from scratch. .. Pippen was simply handed a fully-developed goat dynasty, which he cratered to barely .500 in less than 18 months.

Must have missed Bill C, Scott W, Stacey K, Will P and John P who started for the Bulls the following season.?

Anyway the 6 best players, other than MJ, started the following season with the Bulls.

There were a few changes. Like every team ever between/during seasons.

So we aren't even going to debate who's better at 26 between Kobe and SGA because SGA is so far in front it's not funny.

But MJ and SGA at 26 is a good argument. I mean MJ has at least an argument.

SGA vs MJ
Championships 1-0
Finals MVPs 1-0
Playoff Series won 5-3
MVPs 1-1
All NBA first teams 3-4
Dominate teams - 1-0

due to differing development rates and differing team circumstances, comparing by age has always been inaccurate in determining who ends up being the better player in the end

it's more accurate to go by season, and SGA is nowhere near MJ by his 7th season.

also, TB's fake numbers say that Jordan's cast at 26 years old (1990) set the record for futility by getting outscored at least -28 per 48 when MJ wasn't on the floor, yet he took a dynasty to 7 games with this worst-ever cast... Meanwhile, while SGA had far better cast but nearly lost to bums, so there's no comparison... SGA doesn't even know how to run off screens.. He's about 8 levels below Jordan, and even an average ball movement team from prior eras would ragdoll this OKC team - they're a testament to how weak the league is..

Chet Holmgren is a trash 3rd option, while everyone else is a low-producing 3-point robot... So their roster is trash compared to Jordan's Finals opponents.. Jordan's opponents had better top 2 guys (Magic/Worthy), while Vlade, Buck Williams or Majerle destroys Chet.. And the 4 thru 7 spots were decorated resumes of all-defense, all-star or 20 ppg (not 3-point robots)...

Kukoc won 5 games by himself at the buzzer and was the only true scorer that the 90's Bulls had aside from Jordan, while the 94' Bulls also added rim protection and spacing that MJ never had... These guys weren't MJ's cast, so the numbers are meaningless.. It wasn't like 95' where we could look at the cast's performance before MJ returned and compare to the same cast's performance after he returned.. So the 94' season should not be considered Jordan's "cast".

We've seen this error in the interpretation of stats before... Remember when Matt said that Lebron was responsible for the increase in team assists for the 04' Cavs, but then we saw that Jeff McGinnis joined the team in 04' along with Lebron and led the team in assists... aka he could've been responsible for the increase in team assists... Ultimately, we see that it wasn't the same group of players in 04', just like the cast wasn't the same in 94'.

Btw, casts play better during title years, so title years should be compared to title years, not record losses or upsets where the casts invariably wet the bed... TB compared 5-year periods of Jordan winning titles to Shaq and Lebron's casts getting upset (03', 04', 21') or losing by record amount (17', 18')... This discrepancy discredits the analysis, along with the opponent-specific nature of the results (facing the KD Warriors)...

Rather than compare title casts to upsets or record losses, Jordan's title years should be compared to Lebron's most winning seasons from 09-13', but apparently Lebron's cast during this period out-performed Jordan's (otherwise TB would've shown this comparison)... Accordingly, we know that Jordan's casts from winning teams performed worse than Lebron's winning teams from 09-13', while Jordan's casts from losing years like 89' or 90' also underperform Lebron's losing years (especially 1990, where MJ's cast appears to set the record for futility).

Finally, the analysis is completely put to bed by the variance of the short playoff runs, which produces wild results as a standard - i.e. the casts of the Bulls' title teams were outplayed by their lottery cast in 88' - this type of stuff is completely standard, which buries the analysis, in addition to comparing winning casts to losing casts, or the short-term nature of playoff runs causing wild variance in the results.. And of course, it's fraudulent to claim that the reloaded team in 94' (that MJ never played with) was his "cast".. lol.. So there are many reasons to laugh at the simpleton and amateur analysis.

And do you believe that Thinking Basketball watched all the playoff games for every team from 91-93' to say that the Bulls' cast was 75th percentile compared to other casts??... Since there's no way that he did this, the entire analysis is fraud, even though it says the Bulls' title casts were 1st Round caliber (worse than all 2nd Round opponents or 25% of league, aka 75th percentile).

Kukoc led the 94' Bulls in playoff BPM and was 2nd in WS/48 ahead of Pippen... So the new guy (not Jordan's cast) impacted the playoff differentials the most... Again, Thinking Basketball is a buffoon and amateur.

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1991 Lakers (#3 SRS)......... Magic

2025 Pacers (#13 SRS)....... Ben Mathurin

SGA barely beat Ben Mathurin and a bunch of G-leaguers, while MJ won his first title by demolishing Magic/Worthy/Scott/AC Green/Vlade/Perkins - this was more offensive help than Jordan's cast, and better defensive ranking as well.

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Regular Season

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hornaje01.html

Basketball-Reference.com

Jeff Hornacek Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

...... 17.7 PER.. 2.9 bpm.. 0.153 ws/48.. 42.1 vorp... 15/3/5 on 58.2 ts

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompkl01.html

Basketball-Reference.com

Klay Thompson Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

................ 16.4 PER.. 0.7 bpm.. 0.110 ws/48.. 14.4 vorp... 19/3/2 on 57.5 ts


Playoffs

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hornaje01.html

Basketball-Reference.com

Jeff Hornacek Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

...... 16.5 PER.. 3.1 bpm.. 0.145 ws/48.. 14.1 vorp.. 15/4/4 on 57.5 ts

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompkl01.html

Basketball-Reference.com

Klay Thompson Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft Status and more | Basketball-Reference.com

................ 14.4 PER.. 0.7 bpm.. 0.091 ws/48.... 3.1 vorp.. 19/3/2 on 56.0 ts

When MJ faced Buck Williams in 1992, Buck was all-defense and had made many all-star teams and all-defense, while young Chet is nothing by comparison... Chet is nothing compared to the prime 3rd option vets that Jordan faced like Buck, Majerle, Nance, Vlade or Schrempf... So Jordan faced tougher 3rd options, while the 4 thru 7 spots of his Finals opponents were decorated resumes of all-star, all-defense and 20 PPG, instead of undecorated 3-pt robots like OKC's 4 thru 7 spots... And of course Magic/Worthy > Shai/Jaylen... Ditto Barkley/KJ... Malone/Stockton were also superior, while Hornacek > Chet (remember that Hornacek was a much bigger producer than Klay - see previous post above).