Covid-19 Discussion
Has the wisdom and courage to realize that the cure has now become worse than the disease. It's time to open up. Stop moving the ball.
Hospital systems have not been overwhelmed.
Ventilators are not in shortage.
Treatments are being developed.
There is no cure or vaccine. This is not going away for four years.
The devastation of the cure:
Suicide rates picking up.
Massive economic devastation which causes depression, anxiety, obesity, again increase in suicide rates and directly impacts poorer economic areas.
Alcohol sales up 51%.
Domestic Abuse on the uprise
Child abuse on the uprise.
Hospitals that do not have COVID related issues are forced to lay off doctors and nurses as there are not enough patients to economically support it, meaning they won't have the staff to deal with COVID outbreaks.
Michael Avenatti gets released from prison
We all did our part. We sheltered (here in Pennsylvania for 5 weeks already).
Open the office buildings. Open the hair saloons. Get rid of stupid mask laws.
Continue to monitor outbreaks and in areas hospital systems become threatened, reenact tougher guidelines.
LET'S GET BACK TO WORK!
And stop shaming people that want common sense solutions. Waiting for a vaccine is stupid and unpractical.
here there is a decent model by J Hopkins
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/tim...
to describe how the procedure got accelerated for the most recent epidemic, but mainly you miss the "phase 4" assessment of possible long term damage (or very rare adverse effects which a phase 3 trial can't capture, when N is 30-40k and the effect is, say, 1 out of 50 or 100k doses).
The procedure did not get accelerated in any meaningful way. Long term "damage" from vaccines is not possible because the vaccine is eliminated from the body very quickly. The extremely rare events were obviously inconsequential in a global emergency pandemic.
Also phase 4 was not skipped nor moved in any way.
The approval of the vaccine for young minors (which allowed mandating it) was a travesty though , something i really hope society will never repeat.
It got approval with a sample size of 3100 5 to 11 years old
This would be a stunning thing to read from someone reasonable, but having just read a lot of the other nonsense you've posted, I guess I'm not surprised.
Why on earth would that be a travesty not ever to be repeated?
I feel like there's people that know the basic rules of poker, but have never played, are examining hands after the fact that pros have lost with and telling everyone how bad those pros are.
More like people who never played poker sat at the pro table with other people money, lost more than anyone could imagine by orders of magnitude, and blamed the dealer
This would be a stunning thing to read from someone reasonable, but having just read a lot of the other nonsense you've posted, I guess I'm not surprised.
Why on earth would that be a travesty not ever to be repeated?
Because if you are searching for rare adverse effects which could exist in 1/10k to 1/50k range, you need an N that is a significant multiple of 50k to have any statistical power.
Like the very minimum N to start discussing safety for young minors should be int he couple hundreds thousands as a very very low minimum. Preferably several millions
The procedure did not get accelerated in any meaningful way. Long term "damage" from vaccines is not possible because the vaccine is eliminated from the body very quickly. The extremely rare events were obviously inconsequential in a global emergency pandemic.
Also phase 4 was not skipped nor moved in any way.
The link literally tells you how the procedure got accelerated by a 5 to 10 factor (AND REASONABLY SO, we were in an emergency)
This is all utter nonsense, for the record.
Masks were not recommended to the public as PPE.
The anti-maskers' lack of ability to understand the difference between masks as PPE and masks as source control will never cease to amaze me. It's really not that complicated, but it brings you guys to your cognitive knees over and over again.
We have absolute proof of a complete, certain lack of any efficiency in protecting others by wearing masks, because of the "lucky" fact that preschoolers in Spain and Italia weren't mandated masks while 6+ year old children were in school.
Because if you are searching for rare adverse effects which could exist in 1/10k to 1/50k range, you need an N that is a significant multiple of 50k to have any statistical power.
Like the very minimum N to start discussing safety for young minors should be int he couple hundreds thousands as a very very low minimum. Preferably several millions
Also absolute rubbish. The vaccines had millions of trials in humans by that point.
The link literally tells you how the procedure got accelerated by a 5 to 10 factor (AND REASONABLY SO, we were in an emergency)
No, it does not say it got accelerated. What happened is the endpoints were reached much more quickly because during a global pandemic, there are exponentially more exposures to the virus.
We have absolute proof of a complete, certain lack of any efficiency in protecting others by wearing masks, because of the "lucky" fact that preschoolers in Spain and Italia weren't mandated masks while 6+ year old children were in school.
You may have evidence that mask *mandates* don't work, but that is not evidence that masks don't work. Do you see the critical difference?
You may have evidence that mask *mandates* don't work, but that is not evidence that masks don't work. Do you see the critical difference?
Nono, if NO CHILDREN wear masks vs ALL CHILDREN WEAR MASKS (3 to 5 vs 6+, in Spain and Italy, for a long period of time, like 18 mo that approx) that's evidence WEARING MASKS absolutely doesn't work to protect third parties.
If all children wearing masks decreased R0 even by 0.02, over 18 months that would be an order of magnitude more infections among teachers of preschoolers in Italy and Spain.
There was no difference
Nono, if NO CHILDREN wear masks vs ALL CHILDREN WEAR MASKS (3 to 5 vs 6+, in Spain and Italy, for a long period of time, like 18 mo that approx) that's evidence WEARING MASKS absolutely doesn't work to protect third parties.
If all children wearing masks decreased R0 even by 0.02, over 18 months that would be an order of magnitude more infections among teachers of preschoolers in Italy and Spain.
There was no difference
I can only explain this, I can't make you understand it. A mask mandate does not automatically generate a controlled experiment. There is absolutely no safeguard for children wearing the masks properly or constantly.
Do you think you can comprehend how that would affect an experiment like this?
Do you think if you wanted to design an experiment that would truly test how well masks worked, you would say let's put a bunch of FIVE YEAR OLDS in masks and let them interact all day (making it impossible to make sure they were worn correctly and consistently) or do you think you might design the experiment differently.
Come on. You're typing coherent sentences so it does appear you're smart enough to understand this.
And double lol at you thinking comparing Spain vs. Italy OVERALL over 18 months is a good way to measure the outcome of said experiment. Do you know how many additional variables you just introduced.
Come on, this is laughably poor logic.
I can only explain this, I can't make you understand it. A mask mandate does not automatically generate a controlled experiment. There is absolutely no safeguard for children wearing the masks properly or constantly.
Do you think you can comprehend how that would affect an experiment like this?
Do you think if you wanted to design an experiment that would truly test how well masks worked, you would say let's put a bunch of FIVE YEAR OLDS in masks and let them interact all day (making it impossible
So wait your claim is that when comparing classes where ni children ever wears a mask, and classes were a strictly enforced mandate is in place, we can't actually measure efficacy because some children might lower their violently mandated mask sometime during the day? Some teacher might sometimes allow some respite from the insane, incomprensibile government violence and let children breath for a while?
If masks worked even a little to protect others, even a non perfectly enforced mandate would generate incredible, massive reductions in cases over 18 mo that, compared to not a single soul wearing masks ever (3 to 5)
I am saying that 4 years old NEVER WEARING MASKS EVER, should infect their teacher a zillion times more than 15y old almost always wearing masks, IF wearing masks gave even the tiniest protection to third parties, over 18 month.
If openfolding an hand from BTN is -0.05 bb and you always do and I never do that shows up as a big difference in our ev over 18 months of playing daily.
Btw we aren't comparing Italy and Spain. We are, both in Italy and i. Spain, comparing infection rates among teachers of preschoolers, who taught classes where no one ever wore a mask, and teachers of 6+ years old, who taught classes where everyone was heavily, violently mandated masks (outside of very rare exceptions).
So wait your claim is that when comparing classes where ni children ever wears a mask, and classes were a strictly enforced mandate is in place, we can't actually measure efficacy because some children might lower their violently mandated mask sometime during the day? Some teacher might sometimes allow some respite from the insane, incomprensibile government violence and let children breath for a while?
No, this is not my claim. This is obvious, undeniable reality. In order for masks to work, they must be worn correctly and consistently. Not sure why you would struggle with this idea, but here you are.
If masks worked even a little to protect others, even a non perfectly enforced mandate would generate incredible, massive reductions in cases over 18 mo that, compared to not a single soul wearing masks ever (3 to 5)
This displays an incredible lack of critical thought. All it takes is two seconds of thinking about how masks work and viruses spread to realize this is complete and utter bunk.
And that's before we even touch on the absolutely devastating addition of about a billion uncontrolled variables between your two cohorts.
Gorgonian is basically saying that when we compared 1000 people never using a condom, and 1000 people very often using it, we can't actually determine if they work to reduce STD spread because sometimes, the second group doesn't wear it properly or takes it off .
Man if condoms work to reduce that contagion rate (and they do) even imperfect use has an exceptional efficacy compared to a group that *never* uses them
"you either always wear a mask perfectly or it has 0 effect", is this the claim? If that is the claim given human nature it's embarrassing to suggest to people to wear them, because no one outside of a few really autistic people is going to bring fresh sealed mask with them, dispose of them every time they touch them, and wear them properly every day
So even In pro maskers models, wearing masks is a stupid, useless endeavor because no one can do it properly
I am saying that 4 years old NEVER WEARING MASKS EVER, should infect their teacher a zillion times more than 15y old almost always wearing masks, IF wearing masks gave even the tiniest protection to third parties, over 18 month.
This is my final attempt to get you to understand this. Then I'm just going to start laughing at you.
Let's say you have a 4 year old with covid. He wears a mask. He keeps it on his mouth and sometimes his nose because he's in the group of people that do that a lot (children and Republicans). He is breathing a sometimes slightly interrupted stream of covid into the air. His teacher will be exposed, without question.
Let's say you have a different 4 year old with covid. He doesn't wear a mask. He is breathing a steady stream of covid into the air. His teacher will be exposed, without question.
I hope that helped.