2024 NFL Off-season Thread

SB LIX odds:
DET 14:1
GB 16:1
CHI 34:1
MIN 45:1

One could argue SB odds are not the best proxy for division chances, but Vikes are substantially below the other 3 teams.

Obviously. The easiest path for Bears to get to SB is a rookie QB deal or a favorable extension with Fields.

Signing a retread with cap encumbrance is simply dumb.

Would think Vikes move much higher once Cousins signs

that division is low key loaded though all of a sudden, atleast for the NFC

Looks like it differs by book, FanDuel has Vikes>Bears, DraftKings has Bears>Vikes, MGM equal. If Cousins signs I'd be pretty certain all books will have Vikes>Bears

ESPN's Field Yates listed 3 potential Fields trades today:
1. Steelers: 2024 second-round pick (No. 51), 2024 fourth-round pick
2. 2024 second-round pick (No. 43)
3. 2024 third-round pick, WR Hunter Renfrow

Obviously possible for someone to pay (way) more for him though. The problem with trading for Fields is that you have to pick up his 5th year option if you give up any meaningful draft capital for him. That means you're on the hook for $25mil in 2025 even if he's not working out for you. If it was still the old rules where the 5th YO was only guaranteed for injury the Bears it would have been more likely for another team to take a shot at him.

Raiders seem like the most likely destination if Bears pull the plug, which I still doubt happens. But getting another 3 years on the cheap is hard to pass up.

Sure if Cousins recovers 100% from his Achilles and Vikes believe he can play at his career best. But both are unlikely.

never happens

He must mean "Miami drafts a QB, and ships Fields to the Giants, Titans, or Falcons for the 6,7, or 8th pick of the 2nd round"

I can't understand why anyone would trade for Fields. You'd be trading away some good players or draft picks for a running back who is a bottom-tier passer. He's never averaged more than 200 yards a game in three years.

This year's draft is pretty QB-heavy. You could use those picks /players to move up and get someone who will likely be better. If a team trades for Fields and gives any real value in return we should mock them the entire 2024 season because their owner and front office are complete idiots.

Would love to have Fields. Bears are totally playing this wrong drafting super overrated Caleb Williams.

Because there aren’t nearly enough QBs to go round and approximately 25% of the GMs and Head coaches get fired every offseason

a lot of people last year thought Stroud was just another overrated Oh St QB ala Fields/Haskins. Even if there is an 80% that Caleb is overrated the correct move is still to draft him and get rid of Fields, taking the 10% chance that Caleb turns into an MVP level QB is better than staying with Fields who is a near certainty to never reach that level. Bears are never going to be the 9ers or Eagles where they can win a title with an average QB, their only shot at ever titling is to buy a lotto ticket and hope they draft a generational QB.

If that was the case, why would you not draft Maye or Daniels instead?

Ignoring the fact last year's #1 was basically a bust does not support drafting a QB assuming he plays at a high level.

Even Richardson played mediocre when he had a chance.

With very few exceptions a QB is only as good as the surrounding team and the coaching behind him. Simply the Bears have sucked for years. 90%+ of the QBs out there would not have improved things much, if at all.

Let's see how the Bears draft along with improvements with their current roster.

I’ve argued Caleb is overrated for a year now but I definitely don’t agree with any equivalence or comparison to Bryce and Stroud which just doesn’t hold water

Panthers were structurally a complete disaster before Bryce showed up, Coach, players, draft assets. It’s the equivalent to Goff first year with the rams, people have really forgotten how bad he was and how terrible that organization was and now we’re arguing goff is worth paying

Stroud would not have succeeded with the Panthers. He wouldn’t have been as bad as Bryce, sure, but he wouldn’t have been nearly as good as he was with Houston. Similarly Bryce would have been better with Texas

All of this to say, Chicago structurally seems to be a lot sounder to be a soft landing spot for a rookie qb even if that rookie qb is overrated. I don’t see the reason to pay fields after 1 year versus restarting the qb rookie contract clock while the north is still open and you have the assets in place to deliver

Comparing Bryce Young with CJ Stroud at the NFL level is not fair. Bryce can't deliver the ball accurately over 15 yards, he's short, he can't avoid a psss rush, and he is not much of a runner.

I concede Carolina is close to zero but CJ has it all over him. Bryce is basically another Kyler Murray. Texans are not a superior team by any means, but CJ elevated them with pinpoint passing, low INT rate, along with a D supported by DeMeco Ryans' experience.

Fields is obviously a much better athlete and physically stronger than Bryce. He has lost games due to injury though, and the jury is still out. But there are plenty of successful QBs over the past 30+ years who basically were treading water earlier in their careers with mediocre/bad teams.

I’m certainly not comparing Bryce to Stroud. Bryce is drawing live to be the single most misdiagnosed draft pick of all time (sorry heels)

BUT! Nobody succeeds with Carolina (sorry heels) whereas the Texans are considerably stronger of a foundation

Bears are more Texans than Carolina by far (sorry heels) so unless Caleb is a Bryce level bust (sorry heels) they’ll be fine unless the coaching staff put in place reveals itself to be historically inept

Which, cuz bears, is likely

I can easily see Caleb a complete bust, i.e. Bears don't make playoffs next 3 seasons.

All things equal, Fields gives them a better chance. Of course the cap hit makes things unequal, so there's that.

But the fact the locker room will go south is a solid enough reason to keep Fields. Coaches there are not on solid ground.

But the ‘that’ is basically the point

Justin Fields cannot be the QB next year under any circumstance. Trade down for another qb fine, trade the pick for an expensive vet who gets you closer and a bunch of picks fine

Standing pat with fields in any scenario when he’s a year away from costing you 40 mil is the worst possible option

obligatory (sorry heels)

every year there's fields hype for some reason, and every year the football outsider guy says something about how there's basically (or maybe literally, i forget) no precedent for a quarterback being as bad as fields and then being good. or maybe just being Not Bad. again, i forget

point is: fields is prob unredeemable trash

i guess it sucks if there's no real franchise qb in the draft this year, so you're essentially starting this entire process over again from scratch, but what are you gonna do? give fields a pile of money to keep sucking by choice? nttawwt

2025 5YO for QBs should be around $25mil.

Is that an actual player or an elementary school kid practicing with the big boys?