Bitcoins - digital currency

Lump-summing in, as opposed to dollar cost averaging. YOLOing.

Plan B is a simple charlatan. He gained recognition for his nonsense model which, through pure chance, correctly "predicted" the price of Bitcoin for a couple of months. (After which, he claimed it would go to $250k in the next few months (or something like that), instead it dropped and eventually reached sub-$20k.) He won't engage with anyone who questions his work, preferring to block them instead.

Is it that hard to believe no one can predict the future ?
Hell most people barely even know the history of economics on things that actually happened…nvm knowing what’s coming .

While sitting in the 'ho-hum' 60-70k range(lol), I can't help but think the eventual supply squeeze, not even pricing in or considering the halving, is going to be monumental when it truly happens. Psychos aren't selling and ETFs & nation states are buying, and will continue to buy. I'm not talking tomorrow, but I think there's going to be some

is it me or did everyone start saying "alpha" and "thesis" this cycle?

Yeah, it makes the dumbs feel smart when they use cool words

It's much more of a psychological thing than anything at this point. Markets are pretty much all psychology and everyone buys into the meme of 4 year cycles, cycles revolve around the halving etc so because enough people believe it it's true.

Username checks out

Ok then it's settled.

I get it and it's been a good meme and probably still has some impact, but my point is it's not going to be this mega-moon mission some people still make it out to be. The ratio of institutional money to retail is much higher now than last cycle, they are not going to ape in because 'plan B rainbow chart look pretty'. We've done what, ~2.5x on the ETF narrative? If people think BTC does another 2.5x from now until the end of 2024 (or even end of 2025 if you think the bull market lasts that long), I disagree. I think we still make new ATH in that timeframe though, maybe 80-100k.

I thought about offering you a username undertitle bet on the price of BTC by end-of-year. 2.5x from here is about 170k, if it it never trades above 170k between now and end of year I win, if it does at any point you win. But I realized it doesn't make sense because I rarely post and may forget about this account by then lol. Anyway I am also bullish BTC and hold a bunch, I just think the magnitude of your optimism is wrong and you overestimate the halving going forward. Let's see.

I pray you're right, for the generational wealth factor alone. 21 million though, man. I don't know.

I'm not a guess number guy. I do love watching longs and shorts both get rekt constantly, though. Bitcoin has humbled me and I think I get it, and now I'm just stacking sats for my progeny. And living a simpler life.

I'd do that bet but end of 2025.

The thing is, I think there's a world with favorable macro conditions + positive US legislation/presidential outcomes where BTC breaches 170k by the end of 2025, and the idea that the halving is overrated by many is still correct. (no opinion on how likely/unlikely favorable macro conditions are)

But I realize I did say this

So, given the ultra-high stakes...consider it booked!

Cool.

I just live by the cycles.

Nov 2012 halving - topped out a year later
July 2016 halving - topped out Dec 2017 (17 months)
May 2020 halving - topped out Nov 2021 (18 months)
April 2024 halving - we're looking at Fall 2025 for top

Of course could come earlier due to institutional adoption. The US election could also play a role as the Dems seem to be actively trying to kill it.

Did I miss something ?

"It [the halving] matters less each cycle" is a common refrain, but I think it's incorrect.

For four years, the markets have adjusted to the generation/creation of x new BTC per day. Soon that number is going to be reduced to x/2. It doesn't matter what x is. It could be 3,600 or 900 or 225—dividing that number by 2 will always produce a similar supply shock, until markets adjust to the new rate of production.

The approval of spot BTC ETFs produced a demand shock, and we saw the early results of that over the past few months. The halving will still produce a supply shock. What makes this cycle unique is the combination of these two overlapping shocks.

If you want to argue that the four-year cycles are unrelated to the halvings, that's different. That means they never mattered. But to say they matter less each cycle implies they used to matter more. And if they used to matter, they still do.

Where are the MILLIONAIRES from this threads inception? Surely they didn’t sell out in the early days. Show us the money!

The halving is still the most important event to the price of BTC. After halving, there will be $31m less BTC being created each day. That number goes up with the price of BTC. The last cycle was hurt by covid and other macro-events.

And the next excuse will be this cycle was hurt by the stock market tanking (high chance it tanks this year).

Supply low + demand high = $1,000,000 Bitcoins

Bitcoin is going up this cycle no matter what happens. Nothing is going to stop it increasing but the degree to which it goes up can be affected. Chinese bitcoin miners were affected by covid. Half of the world's miners quit or moved out of China.

dfs touts love using talib buzzwords incorrectly applying terms like barbell strategy and black swan and antifragile

it's sad