99 UTG on bubble of satellite 5-handed

I do believe this is a shove, unless perhaps any of BTN, SB or BB is a clueless maniac.

The difference between our and CO:s stacks aren't big enough to justify a nit fold here. And if he's somewhat competent he also should understand this may be the best position for him to shove if Hero folds. This is because both blinds - again unless they are clueless - has the least incentive of all players to call an AI. That's because their risk of bubbling is small if they just sit tight (at least ATM), but if they do call and loose they will be in a worse situation.

And BTN should at least consider the risk of an overcall from either of the blinds should he call the shove.

I guess we would prefer two high cards like AJs because of the blocking effect. But 99 is good enough here.

This situation in fact is quite similar to the 18-mans on PS (4 places paid). OK, in them we're also playing for higher prices, which affect ICM. But in a spot like this the main concern when we're one of the two smaller stacks is surviving the bubble. To do that we have to be careful, but don't to nitty/passive, or else we will often find us passed by the smallest stack when they either push 2 times without getting a call, or double up.

A rule of thumb even in satellites should be: The fewer players on the bubble - the more risks we have to take, everything else equal.

I would shove there. You're too close to CO to wait him out and you have enough fold equity that the bigger stacks shouldn't be calling light. If someone wakes up with a hand, that's just poker.

Disagree with everyone, this is a fold. The pressure is on the CO with 7bb to make the move, every time you fold he has to think you are just going to wait him out, in these spots they normally go for it, or you’ll see some 30bb spaz jam JJ into AA. Button has 40bb and can/will call with all kinds of trash that has you flipping.

I would fold here. The CO will have to get it in first. The funny thing is that if we win the hand it won't matter much really if everyone folds. It is unlikely that the CO will get it in with everyone folding. And the last thing we want here is a call by somebody with two overcards or worse a better pair.

The funny thing is I have been on bubbles a number of times where a guy with more chips than me goes all in and gets knocked out. It has happened in satellites as well and I am just grateful for their strategy.

If its not a satellite its a clear shove. Even if we are at the bubble. My interest is in going deep not just cashing.

As utg, hero has to get through every player so it's a clear fold for me. Hero is also in an advantageous spot over the other short stack as he has position on him in the bb if everyone folds and the short stacks battle in the blinds.

I am assuming hero busted because otherwise he won't be questioning the play if he won the seat.

I would shove. This hand is too strong and you are only a little ahead of the other short stack. You need to steal at this point. Would rather shove a very wide range from BTN or SB. I wouldn't be waiting for the slightly shorter stack to bust at this point at all.

Somewhat relevant if there are antes. Since this is apparently online, it probably isn't a BB ante, which would be effectively larger.

At the end of the day this spot boils down to how much we think the other players will deviate from correct calling ranges. I still believe that when we consider player dynamics we should assume it's mostly only BTN who will call to light here.

If everyone plays correctly Heros range (HRC) is 38,4%: 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K9o+, K8o: K7o-K5o, K4o, Q2s+, QTo+, J7s+, JTo, T8s+. The other players calling ranges:
CO: 99+, AJs+, AQo+
BTN: TT+, AQs+, AKo
SB: TT+, AKs, AKo
BB: 99+, AQs+, AQo+

So 99 is at least close to his upper range and definately a shove. But I made a simulation where everyone calls little bit to loose, and BB more than a little (but still not a maniac):

CO: 88+, ATs+, AQo+
BTN: 77+, A8s+, AJo+, KTs+, QJs
SB: 99+, AJs+, AQo+
BB: 88+, AJs+, AJo+, KQs

Now Heros range shrinks to only 5%: TT+, AJs+, AQo+ So if we think something like this ranges is more close to reality those who argue it's a fold are correct!

Still: From my recent experience in playing 5-man bubbles in the Pokerstars 18 man SnG:s I would say that the idea you will be relatively safe in spots like this waiting out the more shortstacked player here will often disappoint the player who due to other players actions and/or his own cards is forced to do so

We are ahead of the cutoff, but not by as much as it appears, as we are going to be paying the blinds before he does.

The button should be folding range here, as he has a seat virtually locked up.

The other 20BB stacks need to be extremely tight here as well. Bottom line, unless one of the big 3 stacks are misplaying, we will get this through a large percentage of the time. If we fold here, it just takes the 7BB stack one shove to get ahead of us (remembering we are behind a tie).

If we jam a range of Ax (for blockers) and 99+, BB's calling range is AQs+, AK, TT+.

Bottom line (to me) is that we are not as comfortable as it might appear, and this shove should get through a lot.

Oh, and satellites are stupid...

It is theoretically possible this could be a fold if you are getting a lot of steal situations in late position. You should be shoving like ATC from the SB. It is more important whether the steal goes through than you equity if called. I would never fold this and shove significantly lighter though.

This is a completely different situation than the bubble of an 18-player mentioned before. In an 18-player, the payouts are 4-3-2-1, so there is a lot of value in doubling up, and you shouldn't be playing tighter on the bubble than just in the money.

This is just a pure snap fold just icmizer it, a4o is a better shove here , not even sure we take Jack's

Not sure where you get that. Everyone should be calling extremely tight if they are playing correctly. They probably need at least QQ+. Your software is probably not using reasonable calling ranges. Maybe looking at ICM issues for you, but not for them. You have to shove often with this stack or get blinded down.

Kind of feel like I’m doing myself a disservice commenting any more on this hand tbh.

I did another simulation in HRC, this time with the original ICM model (Malmuth-Harville) instead of FGS (Future Game Simulation).

M-H has tighter shoving ranges than FGS in this spot for Hero. In fact it's just TT+, A2s+, ATo+, KTs+, KQo, QJs. It also has even tighter calling ranges for all other players: TT or JJ+ and AKo/AQs.

The difference isn't a surprise: This is what we should expect when one model tries to calculate what will happen in the future if we pass this spot, whereas the other model doesn't. And to me it's pretty obvious the different opinions in this thread mirrors that. I was more sure in the beginning when bumping it that it was a shove. Now I believe it's a really marginal spot. Something of a "damned if we do, damned if we don't". In real life what happens in this type of situations is when we shove we quite often will be called and bubble. But if we don't we quite often won't find a better spot to shove (especially if it's like most satellites is a turbo) or get a better hand and bubble anyway with something like 2-3 BB left when we're forced to shove/call with a hand like J6o.

Satellites are frustrating... :p

I don't care that much what results you can get from software. You have to keep stealing or get blinded out. They have to call very tight. If you steal, it puts pressure on the other short stack to steal.

99 is better than what the software recommends. From the point of view of software, they are calling correct ranges, so 99 is only slightly better than 55. In real life, that isn't always true, and you aren't always dominated or flipping with 99. Sure against correct ranges Axs is better than 99. However, I would also shove Axs.

Reassuring that you got the exact same call off ranges I did by hand. I had hero jamming 99s and none of the Kx, Qx, but we can see that doesn't change the fact that this will get through a vast majority of the time.

Nobody needs QQ+ to knock out a 9bb stack or a 7bb stack to burst the bubble in a satellite when they have 20+ bbs.

I would like further clarification on how a shove into 4 remaining players w 3 bigger stacks from worst position is a good stealing spot.

The Button should fold everything here, even AA. The only way he can lose at this point is if he doubles up a short stack and loses a wad of chips. He has already won and should fold 100%.

The BB and SB should probably fold 100% here too. They will be tempted to call it off with big pairs or suited AK maybe (and I would be tempted too) but what they should do is step away and let you and CO fight it out.

That will change if it drags on for a few orbits and they are blinded down but at this point you should essentially be heads up against the CO if the other three runners are situationally aware and are not just compelled to foolishly throw chips in the pot because they are playing the pokerrz.

Since nobody should call you except the CO, even if they have AA, this seems to be an obvious jam. The other guys will sometimes be idiots and call but so be it.

The guy with 4x stack and can't get knocked out should fold everything, even AA for 9bbs? Loooool.

The 40bbs can call the short stacks in succession and still not be at risk of being knocked out in a third all in.

I would be calling with QQ+/AK because its only 9 bb's and would reduce the stack to 31 bb's. Still a huge edge especially with a 7 bb stack left.

I would probably call with KK+. Not sure what is correct. However, calling light with the big stack because you have the chips would be really bad. Many actual players though might be calling looser with the big stack.

I disagree. The best play is to knock out the short stack and win the satellite, especially if you wake up with AA.

I think this is backwards. BB & SB have more reason to fold 100% of their range than BTN does.

If they face a jam from the 9bb stack the downside of calling and losing is disproportionately worse (suddenly being back in the mix for bubbling) than winning (probably improving their chance of cashing from 90% -> 95%).

In contrast BTN can call a shove from the 9bb stack, lose, and still be the biggest stack at the table, by a fair distance and an overwhelming favourite to cash.

Ultimately someone has to call an all-in to end the satellite. If it's not going to be BTN in that scenario (with AA) then I don't know who's it's going to be.

99 is not the greatest hand in that it is 20% against a lot of the calling range. However, it seems like a fine steal situation. You have 9xBB in HJ with no action in front. If you fold, then you go through the blinds and will be a lot shorter. If you fold, you need to shove close to ATC if it is passed to you the next round. There are advantages to shoving from later position with a much weaker hand.

Usually, the short stack who bubbles is not going to be the one who steals too much, but the one who gets blinded down. Maybe hero was waiting too much for a premium hand like this and missed opportunities to steal in later position.