2024 NFL Off-season Thread
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I would think it is highly likely that the Dolphins GM and Tua's agent have a better idea of which other clubs would pay Tua $100m+ guaranteed than us idiots on the internet. And if no one else was gonna pay him, they wouldn't either.
I guess I should walk it back a bit. While the Dolphins front office is not bright, there may be other teams that have worse clowns running the show. I guess one of them might pay Tua.
Does anyone here really think that paying Tua the going rate for a franchise QB is worth it? Maybe if I squint, I could justify paying him Daniel Jones money, but even that is an overpay.
I guess I should walk it back a bit. While the Dolphins front office is not bright, there may be other teams that have worse clowns running the show. I guess one of them might pay Tua.
Does anyone here really think that paying Tua the going rate for a franchise QB is worth it? Maybe if I squint, I could justify paying him Daniel Jones money, but even that is an overpay.
again, job security for GM is criteria #1
my guess is that a team might actually send a 1st rd pick and then pay him somewhere between Jones and Goff money
either way...we'll never know because he'll be getting 4-200/135 any day now and probably more!
So much fascinates me about the convos, not the least of which is Tua most closely resembles Goff’s career arc and we’re having this argument while not batting an eye about giving that money to love who seems like far more of an unknown quantity to bet on
Tua may very well be a system qb but he at least has demonstrated success in Ruxin’s system. How they built the qb room basically confirms they’re stuck having no choice, like it or not, but to pay Tua cuz there’s just no alternative option while maintaining continuity
Having said all that, I would argue that the East is such a complete ****ing mess right now that if you are ever going to roll the dice and let Tua walk and see what you can replace him with now is probably the only time you can get away with it. Bills are on the decline, Pats are still in full rebuild and come on with Throw Rogan and the Jest
I THINK there’s enough in place for the dolphins and a brilliant offensive mind that if they wanted to walk away from Tua they could mask the deficiencies of an inferior qb pretty easily, it’s just a massive problem they’ll be drafting from 20 or worse to do it
So much fascinates me about the convos, not the least of which is Tua most closely resembles Goff’s career arc and we’re having this argument while not batting an eye about giving that money to love who seems like far more of an unknown quantity to bet on
Tua may very well be a system qb but he at least has demonstrated success in Ruxin’s system. How they built the qb room basically confirms they’re stuck having no choice, like it or not, but to pay Tua cuz there’s j
Dak would be vg in the Fins system and coaching and it would be a great spot for him to choose. If they let Tua walk at the end of the year I reckon they could get him as an FA if he didn't re-sign with the Boys
I also agree that people are crowning Love far too early. Just like they crowned Trev after yrs 1 and 2
Strongly agree. This is why the Phins will pay him. This is also why no one else will feel like they have to. No GM is gonna get roasted passing on Tua if the Dolphins let him walk. This ain't Mahomes we're talking about.
either way...we'll never know because he'll be getting 4-200/135 any day now and probably more!
Also agree strongly. Unfortunately. I'm sure what ever the deal is, I am going to want to throw up.
So much fascinates me about the convos, not the least of which is Tua most closely resembles Goff’s career arc and we’re having this argument while not batting an eye about giving that money to love who seems like far more of an unknown quantity to bet on
don't lump me in w that group
Dallas vs Buff first SB on nfl network right now. Man, those were the good ol’ days.
I guess I should walk it back a bit. While the Dolphins front office is not bright, there may be other teams that have worse clowns running the show. I guess one of them might pay Tua.
Does anyone here really think that paying Tua the going rate for a franchise QB is worth it? Maybe if I squint, I could justify paying him Daniel Jones money, but even that is an overpay.
It doesn't matter what you or I think and since the quantity of the product "Tua" is exactly 1 it also doesn't matter what 30 other teams/GMs think.
NFL QBs aren't a commodity. You need exactly one team that's willing to pay the price. After the Deshaun Watson trade almost everyone around the league had a pretty clear opinion about it. Didn't matter to Houston who got 3 first rounders or to Watson who has $230mil in the bank.
Nico Collins 3/72-52 and man there’s still inflation in this wideout market
I keep waiting for a market correction given how many good young receivers come into the league each year but it doesn’t seem to happen
#3 in ESPN's WR metric last season
"market correction" not needed in this instance, no?
money well spent it would seem
edit to say:
Collins was second last yr in YDS/RT
Reek: 4.2
Collins: 3.4
JJ: 3.1
#3 in ESPN's WR metric last season
"market correction" not needed in this instance, no?
money well spent it would seem
edit to say:
Collins was second last yr in YDS/RT
Reek: 4.2
Collins: 3.4
JJ: 3.1
Maybe it did really click for him in his third year and he does become a superstar and I agree he looked really really good last year so w/e. But it's paying for the outlying season when maybe it was because his supporting cast just got a ton better and most smart teams don't do that. eg Ravens, Patrick Queen.
I would have been tempted to let him play and then think about franchising if they couldn't sign him later in the season. Texans cap actually isn't that great (only $12m in 2025 cap space and that's before the Collins deal) - we all think of them as a young team but they have quite a few older guys too. And weirdly got older in FA, adding Hunter over Greenlaw and then extending Joe Mixon which I thought was one of the strangest deals in FA. Albeit most of the vets are on short contracts tbh
guessing this means they won't try to re-sign Diggs which is probably smart, albeit he still counts $16m on next season's cap even with a voided deal
Seems like a great deal in context. The whole point of hitting the lottery on a qb on a rookie deal is to for short term deals like this to stack the deck til you have to extend stroud
Plus you get the added bonus of ****ing over teams with a new baseline for wr extensions (****ing aiyuk)
Not going to make a habit of posting **** like this because it's lolpractice, but damn that's a pretty ball.
Price tag for Tee, Chase, Aiyuk, CD, and JJ just keeps going up.
Haven’t heard much about Waddle, but I imagine he’s paying close attention too.
Philly nipped it in the bud quickly with both AJB and Devonta.
FWIW, the projected 2025 franchise tag for WR is $25mil and only going up.
The WR personality and mentality does not take kindly to the tag. I found an article with tag history going back to 2013.
2015:
Dez Bryant, extension reached.
Demaryius Thomas, extension reached.
2016:
Alshon Jeffery, no extension reached. Signed with the Eagles the next season.
2018:
Jarvis Landry, traded to Browns and extension reached.
2020:
AJ Green, no extension reached. Signed with the Cardinals the next season.
2021:
Godwin, no extension reached. Remained with the team.
Allen Robinson, no extension reached. Signed with the Rams the next season.
2022:
Godwin, extension reached.
Adams, traded to the Raiders and extension reached.
2024:
Tee, TBD.
Pittman, extension reached.
Godwin, Adams and DT were worth it. Probably Landry too. Dez, Alshon, AJ, and ARob were not.
celebratory hand slapping all around over a fuzzy vhs event that happened thirty years ago
what is that now, three quarters of your life?
i also used to pull wool socks over my eyes to decode pron from a late night cable box
but can't take away the fact you at least get to celebrate something
nor would i think you right to bluff by a wide margin
It doesn't matter what you or I think and since the quantity of the product "Tua" is exactly 1 it also doesn't matter what 30 other teams/GMs think.
If the criterion for posting in SE was whether what you or I think actually matters, we might as well shut the whole thing down.
Obviously what we think doesn't actually matter.
However, other than maybe one dude who is drinking the Kool-Aid, I don't think anyone here actually thinks Tua is worth blue chip, franchise QB money. That probably tells us something, which of course, doesn't actually matter.
How many people here think Tua is worse than Daniel Jones? I doubt there are many.
Besides that, the 2025 salary cap is going to be 30%+ above the 2022 cap. There's a good chance we'll see the first $60mil AAV QB deal pretty soon and we already have 13 QBs with $100mil+ in guaranteed money. Lawrence and Love are going to be the next two to join that list and once they get their new contracts we'll have 18 QBs with a $33mil+ AAV.
So it's not even like $100mil in guaranteed money is a huge amount for a NFL QB these days.
The Jones deal has really messed up other GMs for precisely that reason. It’s set a hard floor for above average/average QBs.
Did a head to head comparison between Tua and the 5 QBs making over $50MM (Burrow, Goff, Herbert, Lamar, Hurts).
Only looked at passing stats:
Comp%
Yards/Att
Yards/Game
Rating
TD%
Int%
Completed Air Yards/Attempt
Spoiler
The only one he's not on the same page with is Burrow. Everyone else he's either beating or pretty comparable.
Reasons not to pay Tua.
1. He's injury prone: So are Burrow and Lamar. All 3 of them have played around the same number of games since 2020.
2. He can't play in the cold: Neither can Goff.
Spoiler
3. He can't beat the good teams: Herbert is 1-14 against teams with winning records over the last 2 seasons.
