PAHWM / Line check with AA UTG

The flop and turn play is a lot more important than the river here. River doesn't matter that much as long as you bet into your opponent who's shown no aggression and also doesn't have many missed draws.

Betting or checking the flop are both reasonable options, but there needs to be some thought put into these decisions in terms of ranges and board texture beyond a random gut feeling that villain has trips.

I was wondering why the consensus for H range cbet was 1/3? We should have a bunch of K in our UTG, albeit not the Kxs assorted trash that's in a BTN calling a UTG open range, which probably means V has more Kings, just worst ones than we do. I would still anticipate this V to be more straightforward and not bluff raise us off a 2/3 pot cbet. I also anticipate this V slow-playing (as much as one can at only 90-ish bb) with a King though.

Ok, I can get behind the 1/3 flop bet. This V won't bluff raise, and probably floats both at near the same freq, so why spend more?

Since we both checked, make the delayed c-bet we didn't make on the flop. Probably not potting it as you did, but w/e. Lots of Jx trash in his range, less.in yours beyond AJs/JJ. Given that, I can also see checking again, as others have stated. Since per them, only likely getting one street of value, so why not have it be river? Anticipating folding if raised.

Now that you hit your two outer, time to figure out what V'll call, and lol at folding. With your likely image and the club draw bricking (though bringing the straight on home for QT), I'm shoving. Hopefully V was slowplaying with AK...

This makes a lot of sense.

It's not what I did.

But it makes a lot of sense.

Alright, that did make me laugh. Well played.

Hero bets $75.

Don't ask me why $75. I don't know. I think I lost my mind a little bit, making a boat when I was sure I was losing until that card.

I guess I thought he wasn't folding any Kx or QT, and wouldn't call any bet with Jx or even AJ. Him showing up with 44 after just flatting the turn never crossed my mind.

Somewhat shockingly, V turbo jams. I beat him into the pot. We both fast roll our hands.

He says, "I have a full house," and shows AK. Then he sees my nizzles.

So, I didn't hit a two outer. I hit a one outer.

Yes, I can be a luck box.

Better to be lucky than good.

V gets up and leaves. As soon as he's out of earshot, another player says, "that's what happens when you slow play."

I like Tomarks idea of checking turn having checked flop, thinking about it.

Button deserved everything he got.

well if im button i probably get stacked pre so w/e. id 3bet to $45-50, im guessing youd 4b to like $125, and i probably just ship at that point for $275.

He has more Kings because he has more hands total. He also has 76s and 33 and tons of other hands we don’t as utg raiser. As a % of total range, we have more Kings than he does since we’re more high card dense.

Would have saved everyone some time and drama.

I like the $75 river bet, as it leaves a little room for a greedy QT or trip Ks to raise, yet it's a good size for a curious AQ/AJ to look you up.

To me this is the most relevant part of the hand. Obviously you wouldn't have planned for an A on the river (unless you live in a fantasy land that some seem to occupy). Given Villain's actual hand, on nearly all rivers you'd be checking and he'd be betting in the vicinity of 50%, that is, around $40. Do you auto fold? What if he bet closer to 1/3? How many slow-played Ks or boats would you honestly give Villain? Could you convince yourself that he's turning a busted straight draw, e.g. QT, into a bluff? Any chance you'd convince yourself he's seeking thin value from Jx? It's easy to say, nah "I wouldn't fall for any of these traps", but the reality is that this bluff-catching/thin value scenario is clearly most likely and therefore the most useful one to analyse.

I am not check/folding most rivers. If he sizes big, you could maybe fold.

At low stakes, I don't think a nitty opponent is going to turn a busted draw or a weak 1P into a bluff on a brick river.

Just clarifying my earlier post, assuming this was in response.

Obviously I never considered bet-folding here. What I was trying to work through is what size to bet based on what other hands in my range might do, and how he might react.

I'm never folding any boat here. But if I had QQ or Ax, I might block bet-fold, targeting Jx or worse Ax for value. I might block-bet-fold trip K's. I might even block-bet-fold QT. How big I bet depends on high up in my range I'm going to block-bet-fold. So I was trying to figure out what size block bet I might take, given that I could get to the river with a boat, a straight, trips, or just 2P.

I was trying to look at it from his view, giving me that range, and wondering what's the largest bet he'd call, versus what size bet he'd raise, and what the raise size would be, trying to figure out what hand I'm trying to rep with my bet size, and what hands I'd be targeting for value.

My bet size was sort of "split the baby". I didn't want to bet too small, targeting Ax or Jx, and have him raise small or just flat call. I didn't want to bet too big and fold out everything worse than KQ or QT.

Because he only had $230 left, if I bet $30 he might min-click it and fold to my 3B. If I bet $50 he might raise to $100, and still fold to a 3B, as crazy as it sounds. I didn't want to risk betting small and not getting the rest if he raised. I figured he'd call $75 with most of his range, but if he raised it would be all in. I wanted to bet about 1/3 of his remaining stack.

I'm actually still undecided on river. You almost have to break it down by range and see if there is a clear cut winner.

Against the top of his range (boats+), I'm guessing it doesn't matter much what we do as the money will likely always go all-in eventually. Although would it be possible a large bet (like PSB) only gets called by the smaller boats?

Against the bottom of his range (Jx basically, as there are no busted draws so unlikely he has air), I'm guessing it also doesn't matter what we do as he's mostly probably never putting in money. Although would he ever spazz versus a small blocking bet?

I think the biggest question is what does he do with the middling hands (straight, Kx). My guess is a middling bet (like ~PSB) might be worse because I'm not so sure he raises those; might he even get nitty and only call a blocking bet. So do we get more money by shoving and getting called a decent percentage of the time, more than we'd make on average checking and letting him bet/fold smallish.

Still think I'm in the shoving camp. And in general, I think shoving with the ~nuts is always a decent default (and is actually something I don't think I do nearly enough nowadays).

GcluelessNLnoobG

You're getting at what I was thinking in-game.

I don't think the weakest parts of his range are calling any bet, no matter how small, unless it's stupid-small.

If we bet stupid-small, which we might do with the weakest parts of our range, like QQ or Ax, what size do his biggest hands raise? Probably small, hoping we'll call with our weakest hands. If we 3B then, is he calling? Probably not, because I have no bluffs, and my line is insanely nutted.

Where I differ is I don't think any but the strongest hands in his range will call a jam. I'm not sure Kx or QT calls a jam, but I sort of doubt it, if V is on the nitty side. I think only KJ or JJ calls, or AK, obviously, but I wasn't giving him AK.

So 80% pot, or 1/3 his remaining stack seems like a good size, because Kx and QT can flat call, and if he wants to raise with KJ or JJ, he has to jam all-in, unless he wants to min-click and save himself $5.

All that said, it's a disaster if we bet $75 and he somehow flat calls with KJ or JJ, when he would have called a jam. So, if we're very confident he's boated up, then, yeah, we should just jam.

I just figure he's more likely to raise than flat call with a boat, so betting $75 is higher EV than jamming, if it wins $75 from trip K's and QT that wouldn't call a bigger bet.

I think it really comes down to how often he calls a jam with Kx / straight. Pretty easy to be results oriented here and kick ourselves the times he does manage a fold, but he doesn't have to call all that often to be better than ~$75 (I've lost track of stack size, but I think we make more with jamming even if he only calls 1/3rd of the time).

Gbutifhe'snitty/aware,maybehedoesn'tcalleven1/3rdofthetime,perhapsclose?G

Yeah, I agree.

Realized after I posted my last comment that my math was wrong, vis-a-vis a min click scenario.

Simply as I can, I think the smaller I bet, the more value I lose when he calls or raises. The bigger I bet, the more value I win when he calls or raises, but the more value I lose when he folds, or flat calls when he might have raised a smaller bet. I think the smaller the bet, the more likely he is to min-click if he raises, whereas the bigger I bet, the more likely his raise will be all in.

So betting $75 is splitting that baby, trying to balance getting max value from the hands that will call or raise, figuring that the worst parts of his range aren't overly likely to call even a small bet, and it's really unlikely he tries to raise as a bluff when he can just sigh call.