English Premier League 2023-24 Thread

McKenna has signed a 5 year contract with Ipswich….or at least is about to.

This is so impressive, though when teams overperform xG we talk about them regressing to the mean but somehow this doesn't apply to individual players? hmm

Hope it doesn't happen in the next couple of months (it will).

We always talk about regression to the mean from players overperforming xg. It's probably the best use for xg

Aren't the best players supposed to outperform their xG because they're better than the league's average players that xG is based on?

Yes, but that's why xg is so valuable.

Scenario 1: Son outscores his xg for pretty much his entire spurs career. We can say with a high degree of certainty that he's an elite finisher.

Scenario 2: Ashley Barnes dramatically out-performs his xg in one specific season for Burnley, and we have a good enough sense of past performance to understand where his baseline is, therefore we expect a regression (which obv happened and they were relegated, sorry TP!)

Scenario 3: Rapey Ronaldo puts up incredible goal numbers for his whole career, but it's actually pretty much on par with his xg, telling us that he's not an elite finisher, but instead gets himself excellent chances and will put them away at roughly the rate he gets them.

Understanding the difference between these three scenarios is only possible with xg.

Yes but only to an extent. I don't really know the figures but iirc peak Messi overperformed xG by like 40%. That's pretty amazing and also suggests that Foden doubling his was at least in large part a heater. I haven't really followed the discussion in recent years but generally great scorers are more about getting in position to score than pure finishing.

idk that about the fake Ronaldo, funny.

Also, lay England.

My rule of thumb is generally about 5 seasons worth of data before starting to make definite conclusions about a player being actually an above/below xg finisher. We're at the point we can probably say with reasonable confidence foden is a plus finisher.

from Graham Wallace (Chief Operating Officer of Man City) to Simon Pearce (a Director of Man City’s board, a senior figure in the UAE Govt and a key advisor to both the ruler of the UAE and Man City’s Chairman).

It also CC’s Ferran Soriano (Man City’s CEO) and was sent during the second season after FFP had been introduced.

lol115. Just ****ing relegate them.

Later emails are even more damning.

Nobody cares. Nothing will happen to them.

You may be right, but there's a very obvious window of opportunity when Pep's contract expires next season, and the charge hearings next season do seem very conveniently timed, what with him publicly saying he's more inclined to leave than stay, giving himself plausible deniability of leaving because of a points deduction.

I'm probably just fantasising here though.

Some enterprising fan group should make enormous banners with "115 charges" on them, to be unfurled for the cameras at every City away game.

So you think, before xG, nobody understood? Really?

That's true. Most fans knew who the best finishers at their club and at other leading clubs were.

Of course not. But as is often the case with statistics when they are used properly, it presents a method of analysis which can either support or challenge the eye test.

Yes, I think this is true. Someone like Ian Wright, it felt like he missed his fair share of sitters, but that didn't stop him always trying to get into positions to score, and it then just becomes a numbers game.

This contrasts with Son, who is not so much a great goalscorer as a scorer of great goals. He also does it with sufficient regularity that he outperforms expected goals probably as much as anyone.

Hmm I was told by someone here that second season Emery is a disaster, I wonder what five years will do?

Are we talking about Jesus, Martinelli or Werner? I guess really well is the qualifier, Werner was meh but seems like fine depth, similar to Martinelli and Jesus, but at least far cheaper than the latter

Yeah you answered it yourself. Everyone was disappointed with GMs seasons, especially on the back of a very good season last year, but there are mitigating factors in the absence of Zinny on the left who combines well with him but who is a defensive and injury prone liability, plus a natural bias to the right side because that’s where the two most potent attacking players hang out. No one would say Jesus had a good season either.

Tbf the second half of the season was not good from villa and if not for spurs spursing villa could of easily thrown away what should of been locked up CL.

Or, more likely, we could win the league at Ewood Park again.

mourinho to fenerbache is going to be fun.

Mind blowing how this guy keeps getting sacked for being useless before walking into another club.

Not that I'm saying he's any good, but he's only been sacked twice, by Chelsea and Everton who sack everyone. Hardly mindblowing.