Israel/Palestine thread

The other consideration that is relevant and somewhat supported is a question of whether or not Israel felt that the tunneling had gone too far and it was a do or die reaction from Isreal. It just doesn't make sense to me why they would throw their world reputation away over all this. My outlandish theory here tho is that the Hamas side has seismic technology that made it SEEM like they had crazy tunnels and the tunnels don't exist other than the small network found so far.

I can think of different things that are underground and existential for Israel in this regard.

Then this would be like a middle east Vietnam situation.

Israel is almost completely surrounded by enemies either actively attacking it, or threatening too. Maybe it is just a simple fact that Israel decided the threat from the South, both realized and potential, was too great so they decided to do something about it. And maybe 10/7 gave them the justification to do what certain segments of Israeli govt and society already wanted to do.

I could be wrong, but I suspect at the moment they are trying to destroy as much of Hamas's military infrastructure as possible, to neutralize the threat as much as possible in the short term; so they can move their focus to Hezbollah/Lebanon in the North without having to worry about the Southern border.

The last thing Israel needs is to worry about 20,000 missiles from Gaza, or even an invasion, during a major war with Lebanon in the North. And it looks like there is now no threat of this happening.

And I would not blame Israel at all if this was what was going on. I find it completely ridiculous that Israel has the ability to greatly neutralize the threats surrounding them and threatening their existential existence, and they are supposed to just turn the other cheek so as not to upset the Arab street and disrupt energy supply.

I think Israel should unapologetically secure their borders and neutralize the belligerents attacking them, as much as they have the ability to.

yeah, you're wrong. about almost everything

Do you agree they are losing the favor of the world? My peers are VERY confused. How would an Israeli citizen feel if they found out that the IDF doesn't pick their own targets?

I think the people making decisions now are calculating the benefit of neutering the threat from the South is worth losing favor, and probably also calculating that the world has a short memory and favor can be re-established down the road under more favorable security parameters.

I dont know if this calculation is correct or not, but it is reasonable IMO.

As far as whether Israel is using this war to test run AI in warfare, that is very possible. But I am missing whatever deeper implication you seem to think this indicates.

You aren't doing the thought experiment. Firstly its quite accepted and iirc it was internally leaked, so its IDF intel, they are using lavender to select its targets. I've come to understand for other reason how impossible that is to secure.

But think of the legality of it. If you are Israeli, don't you want to know ultimately how that AI makes its decisions? I can imagine a scenario where its chinese tech and Israel is left explaining why they fired at this or kill this person etc.

I think your theory is plausible

I also think early on some may have been extreme on purpose: ignore public opinion and show that world that if you **** with us we will go all in. Dumb for pr, but might make others think twice before attacking

The tunnels were real but most seem to be in Rafah which of course makes sense

Israel has a 7 front war and an existential battles in front of it (Gaza just being a small salvo in that existential war). You don't need to overthink why a nation has to risk it all to survive. Occam's razor applies perfectly here. And that will be more apparent when they take the fight to their northern border in short order. Anything happening with AI is also a matter of making up for the legit short fall in soldiers they have, something also easily apparent given the massive push to get the Haredim to serve (in at least a support capacity).

And btw any hostage talk in the media is a total waste of time to follow and has been almost from the start. I totally ignore it.

The Americans are learning over and over that frequently in the middle east it's negotiation (with your enemies) via deception, half-truths, probing for weakness, etc. This is deeply cultural, the Israelis are entirely used to it now (and play the game too). The Americans bring a very simplified view of the world to these negotiations and always seem surprised when it's not so simple. That's the main reason why Israel would never front-load statehood. There's no precedent EVER down there to trust that. Trust is typically well earned down there over time and bears the most fruit that way.

I think the leverage just shifted back to Israel. So I'm not suprised that suddenly all this deal chatter is renewed.

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-80...

I agree rafiki

Israel controlling Philadelphi now is the key to keeping hamas out of power. It also puts Egypt in a position where they need to act shocked about the 82 tunnels found there and to condemn them...

Israel should have gone to rafah from the start

Regardless of what Biden is claiming, the above is reality

see, it was Biden trying to take the spotlight

I understand this sentiment I think. And I think its likely as well.

I meant to point at the strike timing though. There seems to be a motivator thats being hidden in the media.

Part of my reasoning is that I think AI is essential for militaries now and that by nature of it you CAN'T outsource it. You HAVE to have local, the backend, the servers, storage, data centers etc..

So it seems to me that there is critical stuff underground to protect, and it seems to me that israel felt that it was in critical danger. Its just a possibility. I have more theories that involved our hidden history being stored underground as well, I hardly doubt that controversial.

Ok but in the 5 or 7 or so threads, most of which are controlled by the pandas, can't you see the quandary building? Israel is going to run out of allied support at the exact same time that Ukraine does. This is obvious. At the same time Americans decide they want their constitutional based values and freedoms back.

Yup, its existential that's for sure. How can none of you see this play?

Israel is besieged.

What do you mean, that if Trump wins Israel loses American help? I think you are really wrong if that's the claim.

(panoramic datanaters)

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showp...

Well you see the pandas have the related economic dialogues framed and narrated as well. The growing debt and cost to pay is a byproduct force of the war. Or like everyone tries to say inflation fuels war. But it also drives our psychology. I think you might see a renewed patriotic passion for the American constitutional framework yes. You can see the forces at play.

For this you'll have to show your work. Because there's now, there's AFTER the American election, and then there's depending on the situation.

In an IDF vs Gazan war? No allied support (and actually that's not true because of how much support happens behind the scenes). But if we starting listing other possible conflicts, we get very different outcomes on "allied support". So that's why I suggest you show your work. Because you're going to be very surprised at how much support Israel would actually get in various conflict permutations (and more so post November election).

The degree on allied support on that attack from Iran was unprecedented. And that's AFTER 5 figure civilian death in Gaza.

That one will be taught in military schools for generations. No idea what they were doing. Just too much pressure and rage and they weren't thinking clearly. Supply lines, you cut them.

Maybe their models showed too great a risk, but I dunno. The juice was worth the squeeze in my very simplified view of the campaign. And then civilians are slowly pushed north instead. I guess part of the issue is most of the Hamas battalions were in the north, so they went north. But uncovering the tunnels and such from the word go would have been the better optics for Israel I think.

A big part of the deals that joe is trying to make is saudi

Saudi is one of the good guys now.

As calls go though that's not really much of one. Biden has been angling for a foreign policy win from the word go. He's trying to make up for Afghanistan, and some might argue Ukraine (not I).

He's so unlikely to get it, but we'll see.

Well

Egypt was against them going to rafah

Rafah is far away from Israel

If they went to rafah first they would be pushing refugees towards Israel, and I'm sure they were hoping egypt would willingly take refugees the way they did it

So i get why they did it how they did

I just think it wasn't smart

What strike timing? You do realize that the Palestinians are the ones that invaded Israel with 6,000 men, killed around 1k Israeli's, and took 250 hostages (a lot of them already dead), right?

If you want to believe the Israeli govt has ulterior motives in the ongoing Gaza invasion that is fine; but as with your Russia speculation you do this weird thing where you dont seem to acknowledge who actually invaded who. And how there would be no war at all if it wasn't for these invasions.

Well, I think the American public (including all the dumb dumb protestors) has a simplified view, as does the Arab public. I think the people in charge (not Biden who is senile) dont have this view, but they are playing to a mass audience, so that is how things are distilled.

For those inclined to support Israel (which I think is a perfectly reasonable position) I think you have to accept the US, although nominally supporting Israel, does have valid geopolitical reasons to appease Arab concerns and are playing both sides.

I don't think the us is really trying to appease "arab concerns" that's too general

Right now they are definitely calculating how saudi reacts. And yes they care about jordan and egypt to a degree

I think the US is concerned how support for Israel affects their relationship with some European countries