British Politics

Is he thinking about giving up?

Very little. Where communities block-vote it's decided locally, they aren't waiting to hear from London.

It may, however, be a guide to how those discussions are going locally on a constituency-by-constituency basis.

The odds seem to be pricing in a lot of shy Labour voters, because current polling based on online swingometers gives the Tories comfortably more than 100.

People betting seem to like a story. Just like how last time there was an active market on Boris Johnson losing his own seat.

I wouldn't much like to make a prediction on the number of seats, because a big unknown is how remain voters will split in seats which are a close thing. If the Tories can squeeze Remain in Labour-Tory races then they won't lose anything like as much as the conventional wisdom. I'd be surprised if they win more than 200 though.

Seemingly there's a polling wheeze called MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification), which aims to predict seat-by-seat results and suggests a much worse result for the Tories than conventional UNS (uniform national swing) polling. For instance it would predict Penny Mordaunt losing, though I think local constituency polls do not predict this at the moment. Overall it would leave the Tories with a 1945 wipeout, worse than 1997. The Tories did come back only six years after 1945, but they're in less good health now, and they certainly don't have Churchill as leader. Also, though not mentioned here, Labour's vote has become more 'efficient', distributed better around the country rather than piling up surplus votes in safe seats as happened in the big loss of 1951.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/art...

Rishi's 'lack of touch', ever since the rain-sodden election announcement, continues to be mind-boggling. The premature bail-out from Normandy is inexplicable. I know the King didn't attend the international ceremony either, but the King is in cancer recovery and there are obvious reasons why he might be able to put in only a limited number of hours on public view. The Prince of Wales (whose wife is also of course in cancer recovery, we hope) attended the British ceremony, the Canadian one and the international one.

Occam says he left early because he's a privileged and spoilt kid who's been able to do pretty much whatever he's wanted all his life, and saw his rapid ascent through the Tory ranks as a natural consequence of his birthright rather than just being in the right place at the right time.

Seriously, get rid of all of these godawful public schools that are a breeding ground for narcissistic and utterly clueless leaders.

there's an idea going around that it may have been done in order to avoid attending an engagement with euros, the point being that brexity types might not take kindly to a photo of rishi standing next to macron and scholz

i happen to think the theory is bollocks, but it does at least provide some sort of motive

are rightwing brexiters regretting they left the EU given the exit polls we are seeing?

Paging diebitter and Elrazor

Unlikely.

Not exit polls btw. Just polls showing them increasingly supporting the reform party . That's as far from regretting brexit as you can get.

He's talking about exit polls from the European elections predicting a surge of far right support that's led to the idiot Macron calling a snap GE in France.

The scenario I envision is an EU with far stricter immigration rules in 2025 than the UK.

An historically big labour majority parliament would be restrained inside a rightwing EU wrt immigration.

With an independent UK, it can do everything it wants regarding borders, and rightly so.

So I was thinking rightwing brexiters won't like masses of asylum seekers leaving the EU to join the UK under Labours.

Because that's very probably what's going to happen soon

And that, in general, will almost certainly translate into stricter immigration rules (which means a lot more people knocking on UK doors)

sorry my bad

This was predictabe and the threat of the rise of the far right was one of the reason I was against leaving the EU. Those who thought the EU woud be better for being rid of us were misguided imo

I am in the very small camp that was really sad when you left, but given current British polls... Is far less sad

We will feed off each other. Stricter rules in the uk and europe are the ways things are going. Anyhting that is consider to work will be adopted and topped.

It's horrible and kier starmers labour wont make any difference

It's a symbol of how horrible Starmer has made the Labour Party that this former MP, on the right of the party, would now be instantly expelled:

Til that the Fabian society is to the right of the labour party

*cough*

Confusing an expression of something with the cause of it, and forgetting as always the financial disaster of 2008 and austerity.

Man we just don't want more low education immigrants and we want to keep living in our houses without renovating them "for the climate" and to drive normal cars and so on.

But yes surely the mismanagement of Greece in 2012 is why Le Pen got more than double the votes Macron did today.

Not the masses of unskilled immigrants we have to pay for or the insanity coming out of "green" plans

By prolonging working age and by getting quality migration.

Quality migration isn't sexually skewed toward young adult men

Quality migration is educated or at least very skilled in fields that formal education doesn't cover

Quality migration can afford a plane ticket

Quality migration speaks the language of the host country or at the very least decent English coupled with sufficient IQ to learn the host country language properly quickly enough

People who need to talk with traffickers to leave are clearly not people you would want to welcome.

And we have 0 need of people simply desperate wanting a "better future".

We already have a hard time employing our own mediocre people, and technology is going to make that harder

We need to brain drain poorer countries not solve their problems by taking those who can't fit even there.

Basically if you come from a poor country, you need to be dramatically better than the average person is in your country and then you would be welcome.

Or you can go to the UK otherwise

I think you might find prolonging working age a hard sell come election time.

Same applies to immigrants earning more than the median wage here (though I have no objection), considering how immigration was the #1 reason for Brexit. If you think migrants here are all low paid workers you're ignoring the many who come from India (and the EU before Brexit) to do IT jobs.

The actual solution to many of these problems lies in the US opening its borders. It would give a huge boost to the US economy, with rippling effects throughout.

Oh you don't tell them then you do it anyway, plenty of such cases. Italy especially (we are mostly done here, 67.3 y of statutory pension age , without defined benefits, I think it's enough).

People in Italy France and Spain have no problems with immigrants working decent jobs. The "I dislike brown doctors" thing is non existent here. We don't have brown doctors. We have small business owners of all ethnicities and they are fully integrated. And we want more of them. More construction workers, more welders and so on and on.

We get 19y old people with no skills who are barely able to read , don't speak Italian nor English, have 3-5 years of formal education, and we get told they will pay our pensions by the Italian jalfrezis.

I love British people so I tell them, go to the UK to pay British pensions