2024 NFL Off-season Thread
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I'm probably doing a terrible job explaining here and I apologize.
Just cliff notes of my brain. From a FO point of view the contract HAD to be done to SHOW him he was "the guy." From Trevor's point of view it hands him a lot of money(roughly $200 million) and shows commitment to him.
From my perspective and not playing the mental game of the athlete or the organization, I feel as if I needed to see more out of him before commitment through 2028 on him. I understand he would have likely cost more next year if he had the year they are expecting. But to me it's still unlikely to have cost a dramatic more than this. This style contract seems to be the strategy teams have figured out to use to pay the QBs and not hit the destruct button(thank you Chiefs and Bengals for the blueprint).
This is also coming from someone that has the most basic understanding of how this system works. I'm sure someone much more knowledgeable about the finances will tell me why I am very wrong and I would greatly appreciate that.
OTC's Fitzgerald's deep dive into the TLaw deal
https://overthecap.com/deep-dive-into-th...
When I wrote about Lawrence a few weeks back I mentioned one of my concerns with him was the lack of playoff/regular season success when trying to peg him to Burrow. It was a reason why I felt playing out this year may have had a high reward factor for him. The contract here clearly mimics Herbert which was the standard for a solid young QB whose teams had not really delivered on the field. The non guaranteed backend seasons are where he gets into Burrow territory.
That’s not to say there is anything wrong with the contract but I don’t think it sets a standard that will be meaningful for other QBs. The market basically remains unchanged in that respect especially since Lawrence’s draft status will make him a hard comparison for other young players like Tua.
On a leaguewide basis I do think we are reaching a fundamental breaking point in the short term approach teams are taking to roster construction. With these types of guarantee structures the teams are basically opting into 60-70% of a contract at signing. Unless you have a Mahomes that’s a huge risk. The reward on contracts of this magnitude should come by getting multiple backend years where the cost of the contract begins to lag the market. The minimum length needs to be six years and you have to structure the contracts in a manner to not just hand over the leverage on an extension.
been away, any updates on the wedding orgy?
Yeah that's an absurd statement. It's the Cowboys, they'll sell out with Dak, Dalton, Denucci, whoever, and still get 5+ primetime games. "Can't do it in the playoffs" is never a reason not to pay a great QB, Herbert has made the playoffs once, lost, and still got the bag
Top 25 guys paid for 2024
https://www.nfl.com/photos/ranking-the-n...
Essentially by the time 2026 and 2027 roll around his cap hit will be similar in those years as it is the next 2 years. Similar in the sense that it will likely make little impact on the Jaguars ability to sign free agents.
2028 will hurt a bit if he is not the guy. But if he is not the guy it doesn't matter what his cap hit is that year as at that point the Jaguars will cut him loose and move on to the next.
Again, the contract and the money is not the problem here.
Sorry I should have phrased it differently. The way I read your post, his 2028 cap hit is both 11% and 14%?
FWIW, Spotrac is basing their 2025 numbers on a projected cap of $273mil but others seem to think it might go up as high as $290mil. Either way it looks pretty likely the 2026 cap will surpass $300mil for the first time. But different teams might work with very different numbers on that.
Gabe and BTj are perfect for Trevor. Trevor is about to crush.
If anyone wants to sweat $100, I'd like to bet on
Tua being ahead in more of the following categories by the end of the regular 2024 season:
Passing Yards
Passing TDs
TD%
INT%
Comp %
Passer Rating
Success %
1. You can take any QB other than Mahomes, Burrow, or Stroud
2. Minimum 300 pass attempts to qualify. If Tua has 200 attempts and then gets injured for the season. You win as long as your QB gets to 300 attempts and is ahead in at least 4 of the 7 categories. If neither QB gets to 300 attempts, t
Up to $200 if anyone wants to take Trevor
Minshew makes ~$12 million/yr, Trevor makes ~$55 million/yr.
I'll take Minshew plus another $43 million worth of teammate talent, versus Trevor minus $43 million worth of teammate talent.
There's a reason Minshew isn't the one getting the bag despite all of the memes going around showing how they have very similar stats.
He's a great back up, but he's not that dude.
While I don't think Trevor is either, there's still a > 0% he has a high ceiling.
You are on and you will like it. You have made far too many hurtful comments about an old shaman who meditates for higher purposes. Uncalled for. So I won't steal your money by taking Love ... nah I'm going the karma route. I'm in for 100 your man Tua is up against grandpa Rodgers. Book it.
First we see if Tua can make it to 200 passes. He weighs less than the kicker.
Anyway you should like the bet of all the top qbs.... his locker smells of ben gay the most. You got it easy. Young guy with all the weapons you could ask for vs an old dog.
Me, I don't think Tua is gonna make it through this year.
You are on and you will like it. You have made far too many hurtful comments about an old shaman who meditates for higher purposes. Uncalled for. So I won't steal your money by taking Love ... nah I'm going the karma route. I'm in for 100 your man Tua is up against grandpa Rodgers. Book it.
First we see if Tua can make it to 200 passes. He weighs less than the kicker.
Anyway you should like the bet of all the top qbs.... his locker smells of ben gay the most. You got it easy. Young guy wit
booked, gl
it's a shame they don't play either of their games against each other until the latter half of the season.
there's a chance neither tua or rodgers will be alive by then.
15 times out of 10 I take Minshew at 12 mil over Lawrence at 55
I'm probably doing a terrible job explaining here and I apologize.
Just cliff notes of my brain. From a FO point of view the contract HAD to be done to SHOW him he was "the guy." From Trevor's point of view it hands him a lot of money(roughly $200 million) and shows commitment to him.
From my perspective and not playing the mental game of the athlete or the organization, I feel as if I needed to see more out of him before commitment through 2028 on him. I understand he would have likely cost more
I could be harsher on Lawrence than is justified in this situation from where I stand this is little more than job preservation by the FO and a deeply unserious team
Lawrence is a decent qb but he’ll never be a top 10 guy. High floor, low ceiling, plenty good enough to lead the jags to 9-8 through 11-6 and make the playoffs but he’ll never be more than that. And even if you’re a believer in Lawrence there’s just a massive logjam of qbs in the afc better than him that’ll ensure his absolute best case scenario is making a single AFCCG over the life of this contract
I think it was FW who said it but the jaguars aren’t serious about building a contender. If they were they wouldn’t be handing out ludicrous overpays to give the appearance of relevance
The khans are about entertainment, clicks and views. Even if you tread water and barely make the playoffs year over year and have a an aesthetically pleasing offense and a pool in the red zone you can slam a few coors lights and high five your bros while running a train on a hooker in a MAGA hat while watching Etienne get vultured for the 700th time that’s plenty good enough for them
In a vacuum, yes. How it actually is it doesn't really matter. Raiders aren't good, so saving this money does nothing.
The Jags saving that money, I'm not sure how it would really help them all that much either. Would much rather have the upside with Trevor. And if Minshew actually became top 10, he's going to get paid, so saving the money does nothing for the Raiders at the moment.
Now for a serious contender, Minshew would make a lot of sense if all the talent is elite like the 49ers. Would make far less sense on a team like the Chiefs, but they'd be a fringe playoff team without Mahomes.
Apparently heading into the draft CHI offered ATL a 4th rounder to swap picks and move up one spot to secure Odunze. ATL wasn't interested, but picked Penix at 8. What?
Been too busy getting banned in politics a few times to put together a stream of consciousness but here’s the catch all update:
1. My ENTIRE extended family hates me apparently. The only way I could have them sitting in proximity with each other based on the layout of the venue and, I thought, enjoying themselves by being surrounded by people they knew had them sitting relatively far away from me. I thought I was doing them a favor, they took it personally. Ordinarily I wouldn’t care but it’s been 3 months and my mom still hasn’t let it go
2. We now know the identities of every person in the orgy. 2 of the couples are going to be getting married in the next 6 months. 1 of them, ironically, liked the venue so much they are going to do it there. Wife has already vowed we are ****ing in the bathroom for both of their weddings
2a. The other couple getting married involved is one of my groomsmen. Next month is his bachelor party in Miami. It is being handled by the biggest degenerate of a human being I’ve ever met in my life. I can only describe him as Frank Reynolds without restraint and looks just like him. I may not survive this
3. And this is the most ****ed up part
All told 10 people participated in the orgy. The couple getting married that wasn’t my groomsman was my cousin (male) and his fiancé
2 of the other people involved? My cousin (female) and her husband
Yes they are on the same side of the family
Yes they are blood related
I asked zero follow up questions and I never ever ever ever will
The khans are about entertainment, clicks and views. Even if you tread water and barely make the playoffs year over year and have a an aesthetically pleasing offense and a pool in the red zone you can slam a few coors lights and high five your bros while running a train on a hooker in a MAGA hat while watching Etienne get vultured for the 700th time that’s plenty good enough for them
i lol'd
👍
starts here, definitely worth reading through when you have some time - was way more exciting than anything to happen in the history of the nfl offseasons
Since I’ve kinda used the nfl threads as my personal blog no reason not to keep that up
Tomorrow is my wedding day. Fiancé selected the day before Easter which is hilarious to me for a thousand reasons but not the least of which is a bunch of Christians/Catholics coming with an open bar like are you kidding me I have to wake up the next day at 5 am to place eggs
Downside is I’m going to miss the clempson/Bama game
