British Politics

iirc its basically impossible for reform to get 20-30ish seats bc of their spread out support. on a uniform swing they go from like 9 seats at 28% to 70 seats at 29%, or something like that

as their share nudges up nothing happens for ages, and then the dam breaks

You can have 95 and under Tory seats for a PayPal tenner.

QTB if interested.

I'll offer 2/1 for Reform to get 7 or more seats, £50 max if anyone wants the action

Right, but shy Reform voters are much more likely to be found in some parts of the country, I’d guess typically ex red wall turned blue and now disillusioned with the lack of levelling up and broken promises on immigration, but unconvinced by Lab, so I don’t really know what a uniform swing even means these days with a party like Reform.

Don't you mean my 20 v your 10? :p

which way the tory vs reform vote goes is probably the most interesting thing tomorrow apart from a few specific seats. It's really unclear imo but my weak guess is that it will generally drift towards the tories with seats reform can win maybe going the other way.

Sophie's choice, enjoy your voting!

It's not sophie's choice. Just vote for someone you broadly want. If tehre really is no one then dont vote. Dont fall for the lie about having to vote for soemone you dont wnat.

This chance has gone. Make the man who would sell Britain know he has to earn some votes because winning next time is already his main concern (or will be in a few hours).

yeah, that's what i meant, we're good

gl! I reckon they'll get Clacton, Boston and Skeg and a couple others but not 7+ but we'll see

Right, but I'm in Scotland and voting SNP. We can "send a message", but he's already stated that it will be completely ignored.

I was close to voting for Corbyn's Labour, but def not this Tory-lite. It's sickening.

The vote still matters. Your movement will be back if enough of you want it and keep voting for it.

Or maybe there's some other decent candidate to vote for.

Don't worry - I will be voting and encouraging others close to me to vote. Still, mark me down as very much disillusioned.

Me too. It's hard to stomach just how much has been thrown away by starmer

i'lll take the remaining 40 vs ur 80 if still available

its been a while since your post so you should have a chance to cancel - pls confirm by 1pm today if you want my 40, if no confirmation from u by then, bet void

There's the standard defending-Tory-government good weather over the most populated parts of the UK today, just like 1992.

I still think 100-200 seats is most likely though not as sure as when I put the bet o

Sure, gl!

I think the racism storm surrounding Reform will give conservatives pause for thought and I don’t think they will do as well as they were on course to.

Really hard to say how many seats could be 1 could be 20, but I suspect it to be towards the lower end.

okay we're on

Yeah Corbyns Labour was great and a real shame he didnt get to be Prime Minister in 2017, instead we got years of incompetence and debasing of standards from the Tories. It felt good voting for Labour back then.

Starmers Labour is very meh, I am not even sure exactly what we are getting.

Reform vs Tories is interesting but for me I am curious just exactly how many seats the Tories will be left with after tonight. Anything over 100 and it will be a disappointment as its not the wipeout the media will have you believe. Fingers crossed though.

Jeremy Hunt losing his seat will be a solid lol as well if it happens.

I'm staying up late as I hope there's several lol moments. Hunt and Sunak would be lolz, as would Corbyn. What will that useless ****er do without his career politician life? The allotment I guess.

The best lolz would be Farage losing an 8th time though.

Exit poll:

Lab 410
Con 131
LD 61
Ref 13
SNP 10
G 2
Others 23

Lab majority 170

I expect it to be less than that