British Politics
Been on holiday for a few weeks, surprised to find no general discussion of British politics so though I'd kick one off.
Tory leadership contest is quickly turning into farce. Trump has backed Boris, which should be reason enough for anyone with half a brain to exclude him.
Of the other candidates Rory Stewart looks the best of the outsiders. Surprised to see Cleverly and Javid not further up the betting, but not sure the Tory membership are ready for a brown PM.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...
Regarding the LD leadership contest, Jo Swinson is miles ahead of any other candidate (and indeed any of the Tory lot). Should be a shoe in.
Finally, it's Groundhog Day in Labour - the more serious the anti-Semitism claims get, the more Corbyn's cronies write their own obituary by blaming it on outlandish conspiracy theories - this week, it's apparently the Jewish Embassy's fault...
Feels like lefties are now more aligned to LibDems than Labour.
Labour's path is NHS, Care services, Homes, Green investments etc. They could talk up* the value of immigration because none of these things are happening without it.
This would all be great if it wasn't private equity. The pain of that comes later though. Caveat again on world events but KS can have a good run while the private cash flows in.
* but I expect him to be a **** instead
supposedly the antisemitic candidate for rochdale refused to go on stage to hear his loss announced
even liz truss had sufficient dignity to do that
I get the feeling the Conservatives are going to learn the wrong lesson from this election.
How long before Labour finds a way to implode?
On a less happy note it is clear there is a problem with certain subsets of Muslims. Not really sure what (if anything) should be done, but people do need to realise there is a problem here. Obviously it should be noted this behaviour is from a minority of Muslims (as Mahmood notes in the article).
On a less happy note it is clear there is a problem with certain subsets of Muslims. Not really sure what (if anything) should be done, but people do need to realise there is a problem here. Obviously it should be noted this behaviour is from a minority of Muslims (as Mahmood notes in the article).
that is horrible
im not sure what the braverman types can do here
they have zero prospects as long as farage & co are offering an alternative, which means a deal is necessary, but why would farage make a deal unless its totally one sided. he doesnt need these people
i think the tories will end up with hunt or tom tugjob in charge
Went pretty much how I thought it would tbf, Tories were never gonna get <100 seats that was my main bet
As a Scot I have to say a big lol SNP though
im not sure what the braverman types can do here
they have zero prospects as long as farage & co are offering an alternative, which means a deal is necessary, but why would farage make a deal unless its totally one sided. he doesnt need these people
i think the tories will end up with hunt or tom tugjob in charge
A deal isn't one-sided while no deal is a viable option.
Braverman into Shadow Home Sec again and Deputy to Farage's Fuhrer is one possibility. An electoral pact is another though t doesn't see Farage into Downing St if that's his ambition. They'll be busy calculating the what ifs (whens) Starmer lets everyone down.
So close :(
Wes Streeting - Labour - 15,647
Leanne Mohamad - Independent - 15,119
It looks like the future of multicultural democracy in your country is just people segregating and voting in ethnic/religious identity blocks for their own narrow identity interests.
This guy is the wrong identity for the future of this district. Simple as that. If he wants to remain in politics he needs to switch districts.
Nah., he would have won by a canter if he had been remotely left wing
It looks like the future of multicultural democracy in your country is just people segregating and voting in ethnic/religious identity blocks for their own narrow identity interests.
This guy is the wrong identity for the future of this district. Simple as that. If he wants to remain in politics he needs to switch districts.
Britain doesn't work like that. It's not the United States, it's not Israel and it doesn't have residential apartheid in that way. The 'minorities' are relatively small and constituencies tend to be chequerboards of different groups and interests. The Gaza thing is probably a temporary factor, and the election results showed that its effect is fairly limited. Though there are other aspects of Starmerite policy (outdated pre-Cass genderology in schools, medicine and public spaces, basically, and the schools thing has certainly been a problem for Jess Phillips for some years, due to a certain deputy head in one of the local heavily-Muslim schools), which, if those policies continue -- and there are recent signs that they may be watered down in the direction of sanity -- would tend to alienate Muslim voters.
Underperforming is being very generous
currently 34% vote share (Corbyn got 40% and 32% in his attempts as pm)
Tories + reform got 38%
Doesn't matter. Labour's vote share, though static in England, was much better distributed and more 'efficient' than under Corbyn, who preached to the choir, so instead of piling up surplus votes in safe seats they were able to expand and take Tory seats, given that Deform UK seized the racist vote and undercut the Tories. 2017 was in any case an anomaly because it was a Brexit election and people mistakenly believed that Corbyn (about whom they generally knew nothing and therefore projected their fantasies on to him) was Remain, when in fact he was Left Leave. The fairy-dust around him was abruptly dispelled a year later due to his reaction to the Salisbury poisonings, which effectively destroyed him as leader.
In Scotland, of course, Labour's vote share was anything but static, up 17 points to 35.7, because the SNP had disgraced themselves like the Tories if not more so and, though the Tory vote share halved, Scots are unlikely to fall for someone who looks and talks like Farage as a Tory-substitute.
I think the point is that, with what you admit are atrocious parties in the Tories and SNP, Labour should have pulled in well in excess of 40% of the vote (as some polls had indicated)l, not this paltry 34% which shows the election was only about getting rid of the Tories and SNP while tolerating a very substandard new PM who no one seems to actually like.
Blackadder: We re going to fight this election on policies, not personalities.
Vincent Hanna: Why's that?
Blackadder: Because our candidate doesn't have a personality.
Unfortunately this one doesn't seem to have any policies either, apart from selling more stuff off to private companies.
Tory leadership contenders prepare for quick contest amid Reform fears
Party figures worry a drawn-out race would benefit Nigel Farage, though others want a longer process
Prospective Conservative party leadership candidates are preparing for a speedy contest to appoint a successor to Rishi Sunak by the autumn in an effort to challenge the rise of Reform.
Potential contenders among the heavily depleted Tory ranks have already started organising their campaigns ahead of an expedited process to install a new leader, after the party crashed to its worst election result in history.
Senior party figures are concerned that a drawn-out leadership contest would benefit Nigel Farage’s insurgent rightwing Reform UK and allow Labour to set the narrative about the Tory record in government, two well-placed Tory sources said.
“There’s a deep-rooted fear within the party institutionally that if we don’t have a full-time leader by September, that will allow Farage to position himself as the main opposition to Starmer,” a Tory close to HQ said.
“If you wait until party conference or even Christmas, the problem is you then come in as leader and instead of facing Starmer … you’re suddenly having to first argue with Farage.”
Two sources said Sunak had indicated he would stay in place as a caretaker party leader until early September or potentially later into the autumn if needed.
Another party figure said senior Conservatives were mindful of what happened in 2010 when David Cameron and George Osborne, newly installed in Downing Street, demonised Labour’s record while the opposition party was going through a protracted leadership battle.
The source said Sunak would be prepared to face Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions while a contest was ongoing and felt he had areas to challenge Labour on, including the cancellation of Rwanda deportation flights, upcoming decisions on public sector pay, and on defence spending. They said Sunak was committed to staying the course and would serve however the party wanted him to.
In his resignation speech in Downing Street, Sunak confirmed he was standing down as Conservative leader but would stay in place while his replacement was elected.
A third party source said there was an opposing push for the contest to take place over a longer period, allowing candidates to pitch themselves to the grassroots membership in a “beauty contest” at the Conservative conference in early October.
Graham Brady, the outgoing chair of the 1922 Committee, who remains a member of the Conservative party board, is understood to be working out how a contest can be held under the current rules and what the next steps will be.
To kickstart the formal process of choosing a leader, Conservative MPs must first elect a new chair and executive of the 1922 Committee, which represents Tory backbenchers. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, a veteran Tory MP who has been a member of the committee’s executive, is seen as a favourite to replace Brady.
This process is likely to take place by mid-July, and if the leadership contest is expedited then the parliamentary stages could be concluded by the end of the month, with two candidates put to a vote by grassroots members in August.
The Conservative parliamentary party now has just over 120 members and appears to be fairly balanced between left and right. Centrist MPs from the One Nation caucus look likely to play an influential role, with Alicia Kearns, Caroline Nokes, Andrew Mitchell, George Freeman and Simon Hoare among those re-elected.
Veteran rightwingers including Iain Duncan Smith and David Davis have also been re-elected. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is likely to be an influential voice in shaping the future of the party after he unexpectedly saw off a challenge from the Liberal Democrats to hold his seat.
Leadership contenders are expected to include: James Cleverly, the former home secretary; Kemi Badenoch, the former business secretary; Robert Jenrick, a former immigration minister; and Priti Patel, another former home secretary.
One Nation MPs tipped to seek the top job are Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister, and Victoria Atkins, the former health secretary.
Penny Mordaunt, the former Commons leader, and Grant Shapps, the former defence secretary, had both been expected to run but lost their seats in the Tory bloodbath. In their concession speeches, both warned their party not to swing to the right to try to counter the threat from Reform.
In the wake of their defeat, party figures have been arguing about the wisdom of trying to win back voters who switched to Reform either with rightwing policies or by presenting a broader vision to reclaim the centre ground.
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**** me, he's given Patrick Vallance a job, this is already worse than expected
Doesn't matter. Labour's vote share, though static in England, was much better distributed and more 'efficient' than under Corbyn, who preached to the choir, so instead of piling up surplus votes in safe seats they were able to expand and take Tory seats, given that Deform UK seized the racist vote and undercut the Tories. 2017 was in any case an anomaly because it was a Brexit election and people mistakenly believed that Corbyn (about whom they generally knew nothing and therefore projected the
I have no doubt in public starmer & co will trumpet their 34% as a huge mandate an dproiof they are right.
In private they will be very very worried about the next election and the fact they have so little support.
