2024 World Series of Poker May 28th to July 17th ***No Spoilers***
The 2024 WSOP will take place at Horseshoe Las Vegas and Paris Las Vegas from May 28 to July 17, 2024, with the Main Event running from July 3 to July 17. The Main Event – poker’s undisputed freezeout world championship – will have four starting days, beginning on Wednesday, July 3. Players may also register directly on Day 2.
It's not really an analysis he just says he ran them and it was a mistake but we all think it was a mistake, just varies how much of one based on who you talk to and what they ran it in a computer or feel or level of actual ability of player.
Tamayo's terrible play with QQ makes me believe poker is very alive. Its not a particularly difficult ICM situation. Chip leader open means you are supposed to be pretty wide.. QQ is an obvious hand to go with. If you die you die.. thats poker. The question would be whether to 3b or just jam, which would be a lot more interesting and depend heavily on how he expects Serock to play vs a 3b. It would be massively different if another mid stack opened with Serock still behind him but that wasnt the case.
This guy is a respected reg and plays like a wet blanket who has low experience in FTs
3 bet small let's you hero fold to crazy action is the main reason to do it I think.
It’s weird because Tamayo was acting like it was the November Nine where the only thing that mattered was making the final table. It’s not quite the same bubble anymore, although still a big one.
It’s weird because Tamayo was acting like it was the November Nine where the only thing that mattered was making the final table. It’s not quite the same bubble anymore, although still a big one.
There's definitely something for being able to tell people you made the main event final table the rest of your life and locking up another 200k. If he plays we know he's probably not risking it given the cards we saw (AQ gotta know that dude ain't light with two shorter stacks on this bubble and UTG opener just has a weak ace) but he doesn't know that.
We and he knows that's not a good play but does he care that we think it's bad, also no.
Yeah I understand that and I actually don’t despise the fold given the situation.
I have to lol at people saying he cost himself millions with that one fold and then pointing the the ICM model to explain it. That’s ignoring table dynamics entirely. There are 3 short stacks at the table and Tamayo is slightly the leader of the 3 right now. If he loses chips in that pot he would slide below Latinois. Winning that pot preflop with a raise or jam would still not have gotten him anywhere close to the next largest stack (Angelov). He still would have finished the night in 7th chip position.
No one can really criticize the fold of QQ because it deals with Tamayos utility curve of wanting to make the final table and also avoid pain of bubbling. And those utility curves are specific to him and incorporates more than $$$
We don’t need people running sims to show the fold was losing $$$ though
Prediction for top 4:
1. Lena
2. Serock
3. Griff
4. Kim
I agree with this. I feel like Griff will be out of his element in bigger pots vs these other 3. Even if he takes a bigger chip lead by busting shorties I don’t see him being able to run over people with his stack. Could be a Michael Dyer or Van Hoof situation when they had huge chip leads but weren’t able to keep them.
We all think
1. Lena
But best player on ft never wins. I have played live with him and see him around like always when I play on europe, and it is one of the players whose presence on table and general vibe I enjoy the most. First time I realy rooting for someone.
Griff is the Garry Gates of this field. I don't mean that as a huge insult to Gates, who seems like a nice guy and good player. It's just that in a final four with Sammartino, Livingston, and Ensan, he was the value. I don't think he would even argue otherwise. If this gets short-handed and Griff is down there with floes, Astedt, and Kim, he is an underdog. One thing about the Main is that the better player almost always emerges from the HU if he can get down there. The structure is deep enough that players can heavily leverage their edge in the short-handed.
At the same time, it's still just a NLHE tournament and anyone who thinks there's a big favorite may be forgetting variance. Lena is one cooler or beat away from being out. Tamayo is a double up away from being right back in the hunt. The stacks are so fluid in no limit that the most important thing is just being alive. Seen plenty of guys like Cada and Jacobson run it up from a nub at this stage. Will happen again at some point.
Just hoping to see some cool plays and memorable spots. Apart from the KQ hand, play felt pretty ABC for the most part in the run up to the final table. Understandable in such a high pressure spot, but not the best viewing experience.
We all think
1. Lena
But best player on ft never wins. I have played live with him and see him around like always when I play on europe, and it is one of the players whose presence on table and general vibe I enjoy the most. First time I realy rooting for someone.
I think you could make the case that the best player at the table has won the last 3 years. (Toby Lewis was short stacked entering the FT last year). Certainly in 2021, Aldemir was the best player by a mile.
Griff is the Garry Gates of this field. I don't mean that as a huge insult to Gates, who seems like a nice guy and good player. It's just that in a final four with Sammartino, Livingston, and Ensan, he was the value. I don't think he would even argue otherwise. If this gets short-handed and Griff is down there with floes, Astedt, and Kim, he is an underdog. One thing about the Main is that the better player almost always emerges from the HU if he can get down there. The structure is deep enough
Griff was down to dust and has been on a sick sun run with some crucial suck outs. He is fortunate to be in the best position because if him and Kim were swapped he would have a really tough go at the FT. He will really get to pressure the short and mid stacks once Kim, Lena, and Floes are out of the hand.
It is absolutely crazy that the two day PokerGO coverage of the FT won't include Ali, Schulman, Hanks or Platt. Instead we get two days of Lon and Norm.
Jordan Griff: 143,700,000 chips
Brian Kim: 94,600,000 chips
Niklas Astedt: 94,200,000 chips
Joe Serock: 83,600,000 chips
Jason Sagle: 67,300,000 chips
Boris Angelov: 52,900,000 chips
Jonathan Tamayo: 26,700,000 chips
Malo Latinois: 25,500,000 chips
Andres Gonzalez: 18,300,000 chips
Seat 1: Boris Angelov - 52,900,000
Seat 2: Malo Latinois - 25,500,000
Seat 3: Brian Kim - 94,600,000
Seat 4: Niklas Astedt - 94,200,000
Seat 5: Joe Serock - 83,600,000
Seat 6: Jordan Griff - 143,700,000
Seat 7: Jonathan Tamayo - 26,700,000
Seat 8: Andres Gonzalez - 18,300,000
Seat 9: Jason Sagle - 67,300,000
1 Serock
2 Kim
3 Griff
4 Astedt
5 Sagle
6 Tamayo
7 Latinois
8 Gonzalez
9 Angelov
(This is certainly not how I rank their playing ability)
People are way underestimating how much variance is at final tables and way overestimating how much skill edge the better/best players have. I doubt you will see any major unforced errors like that of Rast and Foxen on the final 3 tables, but all players' final position will still primarily be determined by luck. Aside for Seats 1 and 9 being kind of **** to play from, Sagle received the best seat given the chip distribution/positions, he really couldn't have asked for more. Astedt has the worst seat, definitely worse than Serock's.
I'll go with
1. Astedt
2. Angelov
3. Kim
4. Serock
5. Griff
6. Gonzalez
7. Sagle
8. Tamayo
9. Latinois
1. Astedt
2. Kim
3. Serock
4. Griff
5. Angelov
6. Sagle
7. Tamayo
8. Latinois
9. González
