2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
All the questions from this morning...
That's a good question.
They supported Trump in 2020, but not 2024? Curious what changed.
My guess is dick is more aligned on foreign policy with kamala. Not that trump really has a foreign policy. But I'm guessing DC probably hates that trump sucks up to putin and tries to undermine nato.
Another guess would be that DC's daughter just got tossed out of being the 3rd ranked congress position and then lost her primary. So DC is probably unbelievably pissed at Trump for doing what he did after the election. It is also possible that Liz got her integrity from her father (though unclear based on his leadership in the Iraq has WMD thing under W)
We can use Twitter for our sources or we can use legitimate news sources. It's our choice!
"Russians mock US election allegations as Putin teasingly says he supports Harris"
“We had the current president, Mr. Biden, as our favorite but he was taken out of the race. He recommended all his supporters back Mrs. Harris, so we will too,” Putin said with a wry smile and an arched eyebrow.
Harris, he said, has an “expressive and infectious laugh,” which shows “she’s doing well.”
If Harris is doing well, then “perhaps she will refrain” from imposing more sanctions on Russia, Putin said. Some members of the audience were pictured laughing at his remarks.
In other words, no one took him seriously except some guy on twitter, and now conservatives use it as ammo. This is like dealing with a country full of toddlers.
The Cheneys are war hawks so it makes sense for them to support communism rather than someone dismantling their military industrial complex.
trump is/was not dismantling the MIC. That's not even in the same universe as reality. Hell, he originally ran on Re-Building the military after obama took away all of their bullets. Similar thing on the cia. Increasing funding all around it is a weird strat for destroying something lol
At best you could argue he was trying to clear away some govt involvement(state dept etc) in favor of private corps. But that also happens to open a power vacuum other countries will inevitably fill.
We can use Twitter for our sources or we can use legitimate news sources. It's our choice!
Apnews is a legitimate news source is the best thing I've heard today.
Vance says this
AP news runs article saying Vance calls school shootings a fact of life. KamalaHQ spreads that. AP news then deletes their misleading article.
Are you confused about something here? You posted a quote where he called school shootings a fact of life. How is an article saying he called school shooting a fact of life misleading?
Are you confused about something here? You posted a quote where he called school shootings a fact of life. How is an article saying he called school shooting a fact of life misleading?
Ask AP why they modified.
You're so dishonest and disingenuous it's difficult to have a discussion. Purely blinded by Kamala love and TDS.
Ask AP why they modified.
You're so dishonest and disingenuous it's difficult to have a discussion. Purely blinded by Kamala love and TDS.
I'm not interested in what or why they modified their article (which you claimed was deleted just seconds ago. strange). You are the one that is interested in it. You have a point to make using it, make it. I'm not doing it for you.
You did not just post a video of Putin. You posted a tweet from someone about that video and USED THAT as evidence. You appear to be completely incapable of embarrassment.
Can you post just the video please. I truly don't know how. Disregard that guys comments. I don't care for them. You or someone else asked where Putin supported Harris so I posted the video. Apologies the video was on Twitter. I'll try to source videos that aren't on Twitter in the future since that seems to sway your opinion of them.
I'm not interested in what or why they modified their article (which you claimed was deleted just seconds ago. strange). You are the one that is interested in it. You have a point to make using it, make it. I'm not doing it for you.
They deleted the headline: Vance calls school shootings a fact of life.
KamalaHQ ran that headline too.
You'll have to elaborate on that.
But noted that its acceptable to post misleading quotes out of context. Will use that tactic in future debates with you.
Says the guy that just tried to get away with posting a literal joke by Putin as if it was a serious endorsement.
Other than that, no idea what misleading quote was posted out of context. You'll have to elaborate on that, too. Can't wait to see. And you didn't have to announce that you would use misleading quotes out of context in debates. We already knew that about you.
I, however, did no such thing (as you know -- you are clearly just lying. Again.)
That's what I thought.
We've had some polling now past labor day. I'm genuinely swurprised the left is as happy as they are with their chances, at least based on my impression. This is still the worst spot dems have been in at this point in the cycle in 20 years.
In retrospect they were probably in worse shape in 2016 but polls weren't built to capture what they now capture (and "shy trump voters" aren't a thing these days imho)
We've had some polling now past labor day. I'm genuinely swurprised the left is as happy as they are with their chances, at least based on my impression. This is still the worst spot dems have been in at this point in the cycle in 20 years.
Disagree entirely
2016 was and will always be the worst point in the cycle Dems have been in cuz nothing indicated what was to come was remotely possible
Dems aren’t unaware of the possibility of trump winning no matter how much of a batshit lunatic he sounds like which is why biden isn’t the nom and they actually tried to get a running mate who had sick vibes
If the election were held right this second Dems would win, and not by much at all (despite what I can only assume will be a 5-7 million popular vote lead) but the DNC is at least showing they aren’t resting on their laurels. That has to count for something
We've had some polling now past labor day. I'm genuinely surprised the left is as happy as they are with their chances, at least based on my impression. This is still the worst spot dems have been in at this point in the cycle in 20 years.
Hillary Clinton on this date led in electoral votes by like 337 to 201 but there were a large number of undecided voters in swing states. Had they divided evenly she would have won assuming the polls stayed the same. But the undecideds went heavily to Trump and Hilary lost ground in the polls. And while Biden looked good as well, he ultimately had the same problem with undecided voters and came within 44,000 votes of losing it all.
As it stands now this is where Nate Silver, then the founder of 538.com and now on his own, has things as of 9/7/24 ("Un" is Undecided and potential 3rd Party):
AZ: Hillary trailed by 3.4% with 8.6% Un (Trump won by 4.1%), Kamala trails by 0.4% with 8.4% Un
FL: Hillary was up by 1.6% with 6.9% Un (Trump won by 1.3%), Kamala trails by 4.3% with 7.5% Un (the funny thing was that 3 weeks later Hillary was trailing by 1%)
GA: Hillary trailed by 1.8% with 7.2% Un (Trump won by 5.7%), Kamala leads by 0.4% with 7.4% Un
ME2: Hillary trailed by 3.8% with 13.2% Un, Nate Silver has no data on the 2nd district or Maine itself but the poll that came out favors Kamala by 5% with 7% Un
MI: Hillary was up by 4.3% with 7.8% Un (Trump won by 0.3%), Kamala leads by 1.8% with 5.8% Un
NC: Hillary was up by 0.4% with 7.6% Un (Trump won by 3.8%), Kamala trails by 1% with 3.2% Undecided
NH: Hillary was up by 3.8% with 10.4% Un (Hillary won by 0.4%), Kamala leads by 7.2% with 6.8% Un (Hillary barely held on here and Trump started an investigation to show he won the state...)
NV: Hillary was up by 2.8% with 8.1% Un (Hillary won by 2.4%), Kamala leads by 0.7% with 3.4% Un
OH: Hillary was up by 0.9% with 9.1% Un and 3 weeks later Hillary was down by 2% and ended up losing by 8.6% --- OH is not up for grabs in 2024
PA: Hillary was up by 4% with 7.6% Un (Trump won by 1.2%), Kamala leads by 0.6% with 4.6% Un
WI: Hillary was up by 3.7% with 8.9% Un (Trump won by 1%), Kamala leads by 2.4% with 4.4% Un
So its not clear what is going to happen. Nate Silver has Trump as the 60% favorite right now. But this is likely based on the past two elections undecided voters going heavily to Trump. The electoral votes based on Nate Silver's current poll analysis has Kamala winning by 291 to 245 (not including ME2 or NE2).
Part of the reason Democrats are optimistic is that Biden isn't running and Trump is old. It is possible that Trump will carry undecideds. It is also possible that Kamala will decline in the polls (as seems to be the case now though the decline has been slight recently). It is also possible that the debate (or debates) will be a decisive factor.
It should be noted that the undecideds in the 3 key swing states (MI, PA, WI) are significantly lower than they were in 2016 at this point in time.
