Trying not to punt in the NFL Kickoff: Final Two Tables w A9s

Tough one. I almost like just shoving the turn to deny equity and living with it if you're beat, with less than 1 SPR and a pretty good top pair. Your flop bet is small enough to keep in a fairly wide range of draws, second pairs, and such.

It kinda depends where you think his range is. A blocker bet could be good if you think he's calling flop with Kx. Not betting turn makes me think he doesn't have Ax or better. If you think his range is weighed to flush draws, better to check and try to pick off a bluff (and hope his hearts don't include 2x or 76).

I would jam preflop with < 15 blinds with A9s. It doesn't always work like vs AK/AQ but AJ sometimes folds and AT will always fold.

I would jam on the flop. Betting 2.2 bb's is not going to make much difference vs 3 other players. It is about 25% on a flop which crushes our range so it looks like some kind of a weak bet or a blocking bet.

I would jam the turn as played. Its a solid value bet and if we lose we lose. But we will get flushes to fold and if we get called by A2s or A5s so be it, we lose but the call wasn't a good one.

As played after under repping our hand repeatedly I would check/call as Nath says. A lot of flushes didn't get there. We could also bet like 3 bb's and get called by hands like KJ that would probably check back the river. But if we get raised its a very tough spot because I don't like having just 6 bb's if we were to then fold.

With only two tables left I don't like jamming that much UTG/8 with this hand; that's a lot of people to get through and it's never okay when you're called. If it's a table of tough opponents who are going to 3-bet you light, that might be different, but in a $9.90 with these stats (even in a small sample) that seems very unlikely to be the case.

I don't mind jamming the flop, though, for similar ICM reasons - just winning the pot while minimizing / eliminating risk of being outdrawn is pretty valuable at this stage of the tournament and with this stack.

Agreed with Nath on preflop. I think another option is x/jamming flop. In a low/mid stakes tourney on Ignition I think a lot of the population plays instinctively and reflexively, meaning, if you check to him on this flop and only have ~11bb left yourself, I think there's a good chance he will just stab at the pot with a wide array of hands (from non equity things like small/mid pairs to even a KQ/KJ/KTs hand that they aren't even sure what they'll do with if you x/jam) Its quite common on this site to just see someone bet when checked to without a further plan. This helps you avoid the awkward run outs and like Nath said if you're beat v AQ, AJ, or AT so be it.

Also agreed with just jamming turn as played, I think we are too entrenched here to find a way out and on Ignition there's still a good chance he has worse whether its Axs or KQ/KJ/KT, or a flush draw.

It could be that I get away with it a lot because I am old white guy (OMC type). But I cashed in the WSOP Main circuit event in March by jamming UTG with <15 blinds and hands that were actually worse than A9s like A5s, KQs, KJo, etc. I didn't have to turn them over but eventually the table began to suspect that I was raising wide and my UTG AK raise ended up being 3-bet shoved for like 200,000 chips which would have been maybe 25 or 30 blinds and I called all in of course and was up against AQ.

It doesn't work sometimes, like in the WSOP Main event vs AK. Which is sad. But It does work a very high percentage of the time. However, if I have to turn over a weakish hand when I am EP then later on I will tend not to do this.

PREFLOP

Regarding ICM, are we min raising here? (disclaimer about my GTOw use - I am a beginner using this software in MTT mode and I did my best to simulate this situation with their pre defined spots):

Questions:

- Am I approaching this study spot correctly with GTOw?
- On the subject of ICM calcs do you guys find any value in using say Holdem Resources or ICMizer over GOTw?

I did use ICMizer a little ten years ago (before being run off this forum by isuxpokerbad and cicakaman lmao) ... I am just not sure since having dumped the money into GTOw if it's worth it - (if it's worth getting an ICM calc at all) there or with the more "traditional" tools.?

FLOP

Not having an ICM calc (other than the one on PT4) this is where I am lost. In game I was thinking more in terms of ChipEV - more in terms of a cash player I guess:

I was hyper aware of the multiway spot, and the psychology that was probably going on with it just having moved to the final two. Truth be told, I felt extremely uncomfortable shoving into four players and I did not think that a K or any draw would call ... in fact ... I was doubtful that an ace worse than a nine kicker would call as well. I also felt checking was too weak and opened up the possibly of a stab and a shove with any flush draws and wheels out there - and I don't know if I could have called off facing a bet and a shove ... so the next best thing was to bet small (due to my stack size). I did not mind giving the proper odds for all this junk to call me because all I was really thinking at this point was chipping up.

Because I am still to poor to afford the AI/Node locking subscription on GTOw that's avail on their ICM platform I have to settle for the ChipEV 8m setting for post-flop, so and the solver kinda confirms my chipEV thinking I had in game:

TURN

Obv this is where I went wrong. Even the GTOw chipEV sim recommends betting (albeit small) ... In game again I was thinking cash and I am typically in the habit of checking a weakish top pair hand to the aggressor to keep their range wide even though his range is already pretty tight at this stage of the tourney and that I bet from EP into three players OTF. Either way - if he did bet no matter the size I was planning on calling.

RIVER

This is exactly where I was at. I felt - just like OTT - that he would bet a lot of his missed junk.

RESULTS

Regardless of the proper ICM play - in this spot here OTR do you all think the population ranges are going to be tighter and likely more heavily weighted towards K's, pears, and weak[er] aces? (and by population I don't necessarily mean Iggy - low stakes day time OL tourneys and low buyin live events).

Were you at the final two tables jamming hands like this?

The reason why I jam on the flop is sizing related. If we are going to bet my standard bet size would be about 5.5 bb to 6 bb because the flop smashed our range. The problem is that it would be about 50% effective stack and is pot committing and it allows a flush draw to call and we basically can't fold if they get there. Nor can we fold on the turn or get a better A to fold on the turn.

Again this is a bet size issue. If we bet the turn our only choice is to jam. Anything else again makes it worth it for a flush draw to call and then fold if they miss.

My reason for jamming here is to get a flush draw to fold. Or if they call we are getting as good a deal as we could hope for to double up.

This is where I am weakest. If we bet like either a blocking bet or close to half pot it will look like a bluff. Or we could jam even. We could have had the flush draw and missed so hands like KJ would very likely call (well maybe not the all in). The only drawback is that hands like KJ might fold because we can have an A high flush draw that missed. It doesn't look like we have AA/KK/AK because our flop bet was so small and we didn't bet/jam the turn. So we might get called by Kx type hands that think we have a PP that bluffed the flop. But we certainly won't get called by flush draws that have no pairs, hands that might bluff because our hand is so under repped.

The thing that scares me about this spot is that hands like A2/A4 got there. Usually they are suited and so there aren't a lot of them but it is my monster under the bed type fear. But the thing that makes it kind of irrelevant here is that if we check they are going to jam with these hands and we are going to call anyway.

In these spots when I bet I like to block bet at about 25% pot so 3.5 bb's and then fold to a jam. In all of the time I have done this (which is actually fairly rare) I haven't been bluff jammed. Mostly though when I am behind they just call and I lose less than if I checked and called. Here though we would have just 6 blinds left if we fold so that's why I tend to just check here because in the end I find it hard to fold when they jam and leave myself with 6 bb's and I am wrong every time basically.

Looks solid to me.

Looks like you ran the spot fine. I don't have any particularly strong opinions of any one solver of the other.

Two big points here:

1. Solvers are really intended for heads-up spots, as solving those is already incredibly complex and intensive; multi-way becomes exponentially more so. So in multi-way spots, we generally just want to play more straightforwardly. Which is also why the small bet sizing on the flop is often a good approach, since betting at all indicates a stronger range than it would heads up, and you aren't likely to get played back at light.

2. Most importantly for you, especially if you want to get serious about tournaments, is understanding the effects of ICM, because they change how you play and the ranges you play. The effects of ICM cause $EV to diverge from ChipEV-- it's always present to some degree, but it builds over the course of the tournament, spiking at the bubble and then really picking up around the final two tables (particularly around the final table bubble and early at the final table).

Dara O'Kearney's Endgame Poker Strategy provides a good outline for this-- don't follow the examples exactly, since they're just illustrative. But basically, we generally want to avoid putting ourselves at risk of busting out, so we take lines and build ranges designed to maximize fold equity. So postflop you'll see more lines that are either small bets for pot control or shoves to take down the pot and avoid getting outdrawn, in places where for chipEV we might be happy to take some more risk and gamble to maximize that cEV. Preflop, our ranges tend to tighten up at the bottom and shift to more blocker-heavy hands. (A lot of times we'd rather shove A2s over 22 for the blocker effects of removing 25% of the aces.) And our calling ranges of a shove generally need to be tighter, especially when we are putting our stack at risk. And if we're a medium stack or one of the bigger stacks, we generally will avoid getting involved against someone who can bust us in close spots.

Yeah, that all makes sense with ChipEV. With ICM, we want to reduce our variance, and the size of the pot relative to our stack makes shoving to do so worth it. (And even without ICM, with the SPR going to the flop, I'm not sure you're ever looking for a way to get away from this hand once you flop top pair.)

If players know what they're doing, the ranges should be tighter and more weighed to high cards, mostly big aces or suited broadways. But the more ICM has an impact, the less people should be calling preflop (unless they're really deep and have a chip lead, I suppose) and the more they should be 3-betting instead (and playing tighter more generally). I don't like HJ's call here-- I think this is a 3-bet or fold, probably just fold since your range should be pretty tight here opening UTG off that stack.

Solvers got it right imho it’s a fold pre unless table has gone cray super nitty with ICM. Fold>min>jam imho.

As played ripping turn and if mid has AT/J/Q that sucks.

Solver's showing 100% open frequency on suited aces down to A5s:

I picked up the book(s)... [emoji4] [emoji1317]

I didn't make it that far in the WSOP Circuit Main event.

However, if I was at the final two tables and had <15 blinds I would have jammed with A9s UTG.

I played in a $200 bounty event at the Borgota some years before Covid that had a $100 bounty. I was at the final table and was one of the short stacks. So I started jamming with less than 15 blinds. Whatever hands I had that I would normally raise with I would jam (basically any pair, any 2 broadways, AXs). I didn't get called one time. Finally with about 5 players left I jam and this young guy turns to the other players and starts screaming basically why isn't anyone ever calling me? I looked at him and said maybe its because I'm an older white guy... He fumed but made it to the final 3 where we chopped evenly. I was still way behind as the short stack but I had a solid read on the chip leader and so he pretended he had to go home because he had something to do the next day. I mean who gives a guy with 12 blinds an even chop when you have like 50 blinds? Lol. Oh, and the funny thing was until we chopped I hadn't won a single bounty (I got to keep my bounty).

Oh.

Solvers a donk then lol.

But seriously, 6 handed you are getting 3b/ripped in the face so much it’s just not worth the open, never minded 8 handed+.

In a $9.90? I doubt that.

Even good players have to worry about how tight your range should be here-- and you still remove one of the aces and have top pair and flush outs if it goes to a flop.

Between the buyins and the stats given, though, I'm not worried about these players taking an A5s or KJo type hand and putting the heat on us. I think they'll be pretty straightforward, so if we have to fold to a 3-bet we're basically always dominated anyway (maybe not if they're jamming 88, but that's it).

Well, then, even against tight calling ranges, having to get through seven players, you're going to end up going out a fair chunk of the time at a time when your tournament life is very valuable. Are you shoving the very top of your range here too?

Yes. I am shoving everything I am raising with. That way they have no idea what I am doing.

What I have found when I have > 15 blinds is that my minraises from UTG or UTG+1 are very unsuccessful in general. Especially when I get callers in position. I do win some hands but I lose a majority of the time. When I shove, for whatever reason, in live tournaments I rarely get called. I have even had people show me AQ when they are folding

For what it's worth I think this is +EV (not the most +EV line, but still positive) even in an optimal game. If people are folding things like AQ then it becomes even better.

The presence of a big blind ante, especially in a short handed game, strengthens the case as Harrington's M is significantly lower with the large ante.

Ya honestly this may be the way (and I originally advocated for the r/f). I think one of my bigger leaks (and one I see with a lot of my students) is when we are in a softer environment thinking we must impose ourselves upon the table and play too many spots (i.e the OP) mistakenly thinking that's where our edge lies when in actuality sometimes our edge is found in avoiding these marginal spots which we don't need to take against the softer fields and instead waiting for them to make mistakes or pushing our edges from LP

This.

Eh, I still think it's a little too much hand to fold, especially considering how large the antes are. If everyone folds you add 3.1 BB to your stack.

I think I would strongly consider folding A2s, A3s, A6s, A7s.

Yeah, the ante is important, but the situation is as important as the hand. There are better situations from later position.

You also have a stack size that is better for a reshove than an open raise or open shove. It is fine for an open shove from late position with some hands, including this one, though.

Unless you have AA preflop, there are always "better situations." Is this situation profitable? Between the strength of our hand and the money in the middle, I think so. We're gonna have to start shoving after the blinds if we fold this or if we raise/fold this so it's not like having to raise/fold really changes our situation meaningfully.