5/5 Call or raise my draw in this 3b pot?
We're playing four handed, because the majority of the table went for a break at the same time.
SB (800): Just sat down.
If we are sure that this sizing is heavy towards value—and that we have no fold equity on a jam—it’s possible we should fold.Even if we think Villain stacks off on a diamond, there are 9 diamonds in the deck and our stack odds are 6:1 or close to it. Do we have the discipline to fold to an overbet jam from Villain on a K, Q,A or J? Do we think Villain can be h
the flop call (if you believe op that sb is folding) is worth like 30bb lol
I know GTO usually recommends small flop bets, but I don't see how a 2/3 flop bet is some big mistake that can be exploited. However, shoving does exploit it to some extent. If he puts in a big bet, maybe with ace high, and folds to your draw, that is a good result.
this isn't really what exploitation means
as an exxagerated hypothetical. imagine he has air 10% of the time and a hand he's bet/calling 90% of the time. are you exploiting by him shoving a fairly weak draw if he happens to have air this particular time?
To everyone that says call: So there's actually nothing wrong with folding the turn unimproved here? Because I felt like a pushover after doing that a couple of times... Or are we only calling flop and folding turn to a guy whom we expect to always have an overpair if he bets/shoves the turn? And when we face someone who's laggier and more bluffy, we do raise the flop? Because
really though. most of the input in this thread is useless. go to gtow, use free solve on the hand. worry less that you start 200bb deep and take a look at bb vs btn as the spr will end up very similar to your hand and look at how button approaches a cbet. think in terms of ranges, if he bets the turn so much of the time so big that you have fold your flush draw, that's great for other parts of your range. again it's tricker bc its multiway so mdf gets split between u and sb (what this means in practice is you don't need to defend the bottom half of defends), but id just look at how solver plays range and which hands its raising vs calling and what its doing on some different turn types - brick, diamond, Ace, Queen, King, Jack, and Ten vs both a check and a bet and go from there.
everyone in the thread just seems absolutely terrified of playing later streets
I think we are assuming because he 3! and cbet 2/3 pot, he has an overpair or set. He could have 3! light and have a big ace and is representing an overpair.
Plus it isn't a disguised hand like a double gutshot. If you flat call and bet when the flush hits, you may not get called or may not get all the money in. If you shove on the flop, it could be a draw, but it isn't as face up.
worry about making the most +ev decision at every point not about not being a push over. if you think he has an overpair what do you think raising / getting it in on the flop does except commit yourself with 37% or whatever equity?
I thought that at least AK/AQ was possible too. If I'm certain he has an overpair, I don't want to raise. I wasn’t that certain though.
But I do agree with your first sentence. Because of those earlier hands I think I was preoccupied with having to fold the turn unimproved again if I just call, not thinking enough about other possible scenarios, such as me actually hitting or him slowing down on the turn or betting small or whatever.
