Vice-President Kamala Harris
Probably requires her own thread at this moment, lock/delete etc if someone else wins the nom
Maybe, but I don't think your giving enough credence to what the most significant portion of potential future workers not working means in regard to how companies are currently restructuring itself to possibly achieve greater efficiency without them - compared to the % of older folks working.
many sectors could gain efficiency and so need less workers per unit of wealth generated in the future thanks to AI and other forms of technological advancement.
but that already happened with all technological improvement and people simply find other ways to produce value with their time.
The scenario where a huge lot of people aren't needed in any job at all is useless to discuss.
Not because it's impossible (it's actually quite possible in a long enough time frame), but because if machine intelligence starts to match normal people achievements in *all* activities, at a lower cost everything included than a living wage, then the wealth you can create is so massive, and the self-improving mechanisms that kick in so absurd, that you reach something akin to at the very least an economic singularity, meaning that everything we did and knew up to that point doesn't inform us on how to proceed, that production in value terms goes up so much we can't even fathom it, and that nothing we can talk about now will help later on.
In a scenario where self-improving, more-intelligent-than humans, technology exists (at low maintenance costs), the gap with the present would be higher, and growing every year, than the gap between current first world countries and the poorest countries in the world.
but I disagree with the "only 40% of working age adults working" scenario anyway, because it's either like now or close to it, or a tiny minority in the "singularity" scenario. maybe we pass through 40% for a year or 3 that's possible but I don't see that as any kind of stable new equilibrium.
it's very implausible to think AI will reach exactly median human level and stay there. if it reaches it, it would surpass it very quickly
many sectors could gain efficiency and so need less workers per unit of wealth generated in the future thanks to AI and other forms of technological advancement.
but that already happened with all technological improvement and people simply find other ways to produce value with their time.
The scenario where a huge lot of people aren't needed in any job at all is useless to discuss.
Not because it's impossible (it's actually quite possible in a long enough time frame), but because if machine intel
Sure, there are too many variables to try to predict how AI is going to affect the avg worker. But excluding AI, we've still already seen the LFP drop an many parts of the world - Asia Pacific is down to 60.5% and China has fallen from about 75% to 66% in 20 years. Sure, these aren't massive dives but these trends very likely to continue, and possibly accelerate. There are plenty of catalysts for that to happen, in my opinion.
But my concern is the steps that some of the largest employers are taking, as a result of having the tech now available to fill some of the jobs that maybe at first couldn't fill, to eventually not being able to operate profitably without that technological support and it eventually becoming the norm. When profitability is tight like that, those changes can snowball pretty rapidly throughout the economy making for some rather swift changes affecting how everyone is forced to do business. We saw how covid completely changed the way many of the B@M places had to operate in order to stay in business - they didn't have a choice and many places closed up permanently.
I could be completely wrong and I hope that I am, the labor force could also settle in at 45-50% instead of 40%. But I do know that if the economy cycles downward, a lot of jobs that are lost will never come back and that a lot of companies are already eager for this to happen.
Both labor force participation rates you mention have the "elders shouldn't count" portion in it. And they start at 15-16. So what you see is increasing college access delaying entrance into the labor force + elders not working at 70, 75 and so on.
This is Italy that uses a more reasonable 16-65 LFP definition, you see there is no downtrend?
Neither of those things imply that you're limiting gdp - and the opposite has played a role increasing it many times. The only argument against that would be discouraging work, thus reducing productivity and eventually innovation. But you aren't working with the same perimeters when AI is brought into the workforce.
When I said social safety nets and an increase in gov't assistance reduces GDP growth you claimed the opposite has occurred multiple times - I would have to ask for an example, because I don't believe that is possible.
The new technologies of the 20th century brought new jobs and made changes to the trades. It didn't eliminate the need for workers as a whole.
I completely agree and there is no reason to believe any current or future technology will be any different.
But the labor force participation is already going down, down from 67% to 62% since 2001, with many new forms of govt assistance being brought into the equation - and still increasing gdp quite a bit in the timeframe. Now, when walmart is your largest employer, as opposed to the auto industry, the ability to both replace those jobs with AI, and replace their income through the additional revenue that the businesses would make from not having to pay an employer would help continue to fund more e
We have had GDP growth in spite of an increase in gov't assistance - not because of it. You can't take money out of the pocket of super productive people and give it to less productive people and expect the same GDP growth rate.
Harris denouncing a follower of Christ, telling him to visit the rally down the street instead, was so frusteratingly obtuse.
Lol disruptive hecklers getting mad because they got heckled back is a perfect summation of the Trump alpha movement.
Ever thought it was staged to get that reply? Just as Kamala working hard on the plane photo was staged, Trump working at Mcdonalds all staged including the folks at the drive through and Tim Walz hunting but has no clue how to handle a shotgun
Staged, staged, staged
The only thing not staged is Trump getting shot though a few dems believe it was
Lol disruptive hecklers getting mad because they got heckled back is a perfect summation of the Trump alpha movement.
was the person uttering "Jesus" interviewed by anyone after the fact?
I understand he could have been an agent provocateur but do we know that for a fact? a lot of democratic voting black people are very religious
When I said social safety nets and an increase in gov't assistance reduces GDP growth you claimed the opposite has occurred multiple times - I would have to ask for an example, because I don't believe that is possible.
The CARES act. Govt spending similar to this is an option, a mechanism for boosting the economy that's under certain conditions.
I completely agree and there is no reason to believe any current or future technology will be any different.
We have had GDP growth in spite of an increase in gov't assistance - not because of it. You can't take money out of the pocket of super productive people and give it to less productive people and expect the same GDP growth rate.
The people don't even have to be productive for the benefits towards the economy to take place.
Govt aid literally increases the amount of spending towards goods and services for companies, thus causing businesses to ramp up production to meet demand and hiring more workers to accomplish those tasks. And those new workers increase their spending, boosting profits and raising gdp.
if demand is insufficient because of liquidity traps or other problems, the government propping it up can make money out of nothing in some sense, that's a key finding of Keynes.
but you need supply to be there, available, and untapped for that to happen. "slack" they call it: unused productive factors, be they empty hotels, food that would be thrown away, empty factories, or skilled unemployed people or whatever.
which was the case during COVID and also in the aftermath of the GFC.
but that happened in the past as well and is nothing new and it has nothing to do with AI
There are like 200,000 camel in India and that is the dwindling number
Intended or not, calling someone of Indian decent camel sure seems racially driven. No clue what it could possibly mean otherwise. Horseface? Could have just said horseface. Camel seems fairly deliberate.
As for "Orange".... hes wearing orange makeup. Hes in orangeface. Are people supposed to ignore that he deliberately does this to himself? Maybe if he were turning orange due to a mutated case of jaundice it could be considered off limits
There are like 200,000 camel in India and that is the dwindling number
Intended or not, calling someone of Indian decent camel sure seems racially driven. No clue what it could possibly mean otherwise. Horseface? Could have just said horseface. Camel seems fairly deliberate.
As for "Orange".... hes wearing orange makeup. Hes in orangeface. Are people supposed to ignore that he deliberately does this to himself? Maybe if he were turning orange due to a mutated case of jaundice it could be co
It's just a play on her name, obviously.
And no not horserace lol. That doesn't work because her name doesn't sound anything like that.
Luckbox have you tried reading before you reply to someone’s post?
Don't think her town hall was as bad as some are saying. seemed pretty standard. The only isues I would have if I wasnt a fan of hers is i dont know her immigration policy at all compared to 3 months ago. Seems quite a bit of a 180 but teh biden admin did a 180 in ways from his first year to his 3rd year after seeing the liberal support saying he was doing a poor job with that
There are like 200,000 camel in India and that is the dwindling number
Intended or not, calling someone of Indian decent camel sure seems racially driven. No clue what it could possibly mean otherwise. Horseface? Could have just said horseface. Camel seems fairly deliberate.
As for "Orange".... hes wearing orange makeup. Hes in orangeface. Are people supposed to ignore that he deliberately does this to himself? Maybe if he were turning orange due to a mutated case of jaundice it could be co
LOL. I dont even know the context of this post but no one associates Indians with camels.
40% of americans worked in agriculture in 1900.
2% do now.
It's hard for anything to have a bigger impact than that.
It will be massively bigger than that
We're not replacing jobs, were replacing human abilities. AS we do that the AI/robotics are doing the new jobs as well as the old ones.
Those who are clinging to the past where new jobs were created are in massive denial.
It will be massively bigger than that
We're not replacing jobs, were replacing human abilities. AS we do that the AI/robotics are doing the new jobs as well as the old ones.
Those who are clinging to the past where new jobs were created are in massive denial.
Automation replaces/substitutes human abilities all the times
Word Salad Kamala at it again on the CNN town hall. She is proving how bad a candidate she is .
Seems to do better on non friendly interviews
