Nut flush river bet size on a dryish board
This is a weekday evening 1/2 game. 8-handed.
UTG (loose passive typical Asian fish) opened 6.
Hero saw A4ss from UTG+1 and we flat.
UTG+2 (main V, white guy 20+, as handsome as a model) flat. He might have some overplay - we've seen him btn 3! with K7s in an earlier pot and gave up after c-betting an Ace high flop.
One LP flat.
BTN min 3! to 12 (I never quite understand why would anyone min 3 bet! so please share your thoughts if you've seen this more than me)
UTG folded, hero called, main V and LP called. 4-handed.
Flop (60) 2♣5♥8♠
All checked to the btn, btn bet 15.
hero called, V called from my direct left, LP folded.
3-way to see the turn.
Turn (105) 6♠
We now picked up an ace flush draw on top of the gut-shot.
We led for 75.
V tank called. BTN got out of the way.
River (255) J♠
V was the effective stack with about 300; we had him covered.
What range do we put V in and how big shall we bet?
Spoiler
Hero jammed, hero was greedy. Hero's line is non-standard for the BD nut flush so hero wouldn't want to leave any value on the table. If V was an older guy I would bet small but he's young.
V asked for a count, and folded.
Later on V asked me if I had the nut flush, I asked if he folded a flush. He said no, he only had an 8 (87 or 89 I suppose).
Appreciate all the feedback you guys provided!
I vaguely recall someone here posting a comment about how opponents never believe we hit a BDFD, and will pay us off.
In my experience, opponents seem to use it as an additional reason to fold hands that were marginal value before the flush hit. They say to themselves, "well, I was already losing to X, Y, and Z, now I also lose to the flush."
That said, it does seem suspicious that he asked for a count before folding, and then asked if you had the nut flush. Given his tank call, I might believe he turned a straight with a BDFD, and was contemplating a raise on the turn, and might have raised if we bet small on the river.
Strongly disagree with the last two comments on #25 and #26.
In my live experience, I have received numerous faced-up folds, correct and incorrect ones. Players especially male players, with a smaller flush or sets, will tank for longer and even made a speech feeling so proud of themself such as saying "only 2% players in this casino can make this big laydown". Folding itself is against the way to make one happy, so faced-up folds and speech like that makes them feel good about themselves to compensate for the pain of folding.
If he indeed folded a smaller flush, and asked if I had the nuts, I think he would be so proud of himself to tell me he made a good fold.
People come to casino to feel good about themselves, particularly if they think they outplays you.
I do find it funny to see the confidence in #25 and #26 that you are so sure about his hand. I remember seeing the same confidence in those players who make a big speech and the wrong laydown. Unless I show them they're wrong, they'll never believe they are, but I don't have the habit of tabling my hands unnecessarily.
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In my experience, opponents seem to use it as an additional reason to fold hands that were marginal value before the flush hit. They say to themselves, "well, I was already losing to X, Y, and Z, now I also lose to the flush."
I find it helpful to hear different thoughts like this. It's not the way I think, but it's very useful to hear different thought process opponents might have.
This is a weekday evening 1/2 game. 8-handed.
UTG (loose passive typical Asian fish) opened 6.
Hero saw A4ss from UTG+1 and we flat.
UTG+2 (main V, white guy 20+, as handsome as a model) flat. He might have some overplay - we've seen him btn 3! with K7s in an earlier pot and gave up after c-betting an Ace high flop.
One LP flat.
BTN min 3! to 12 (I never quite understand why would anyone min 3 bet! so please share your thoughts if you've seen this more than me)
UTG folded, hero called, main V and LP c
He has AK imo, that is why he min re-raised, to build the pot without much risk in case he flopped a pair.
No. If you just call the 2 it's a call. But here someone raises to 6 before her so it becomes a cold call because she isnt in for the 2. So every limp isn't a cold call. You have to be calling two or more betting levels in one go, which she is.
Gto unless crazy deep basically never cold calls. A4 you are raising here as a bluff, not for value. So I hate the call of the initial raise especially in utg1. I'm sure you will not find any chart that calls here at any stack depth. You are far behind utgs range. Even seeing results the jam on the end is fine. And if ppl are really folding smaller flushes then just play the naked ace the same way at about the Nash equilibrium frequency ( bluff a bit more if they overfold a d a bit less if they are stations)
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Strongly disagree with the last two comments on #25 and #26.
In my live experience, I have received numerous faced-up folds, correct and incorrect ones. Players especially male players, with a smaller flush or sets, will tank for longer and even made a speech feeling so proud of themself such as saying "only 2% players in this casino can make this big laydown". Folding itself is against the way to make one happy, so faced-up folds and speech like that makes them feel good about themselves to comp
Speaking for myself, you're inferring a degree of confidence about V's hand which I don't actually have.
I'd bet 175 on the river or check if you think he is super aggro. I can't really fault a shove b/c it looks like he has a flush or something very value heavy and may call.
