AA vs donk bet on a 974 board. Fold?

fold

Call flop and be all in on every turn. He probably has JJ-KK way more than sets.

this is a really strange line to see, you rarely see the small blind donk bet or the PSB into a 3bet pot sizing. is there any timing tell? did he just snap bet 3 stacks of $5 chips into the pot? did he tank for awhile and then announce $300? did he randomly grab $100 chips and tossed 3 of them into the pot? has he taken this line, or a similar sizing like cbetting PSB into a 3bet pot on the flop before? as cbetter, what is his usual bet sizing?

sometimes the answer is as obvious as "he bet pot with the nuts" but it's a very irregular line. I think we're just too strong to fold flop here though. realistically what better hands do we have? maybe half the remaining combos of 99 played as a 3bet this way on the button. so we have a handful of nut combo and then AA is our next best hand.

what is our image like? we're on the button here so our 3bet shouldn't automatically be getting read as QQ+ if we're 3betting at correct frequencies. if we have a tight image though we might be getting read as being on QQ+ here though which changes things.

in a vacuum I could see V doing this with TT/JJ/Xd7d/JTdd/etc so there's a lot of hands that we're just ahead of

I can’t see calling and leaving less than a PSB behind. I think I’m in the ‘rip it in’ camp.

Folding seems absurd here. Would the average TAG fold an overpair to a shove?

LOL...you think this "tight, reasonable" player is calling 3 bets cold in the sb with 97/94/74/65/T8/44?

But you're right, live poker will never die.

Is utg deep and a big fish, or is there any other reason why he would call low pp's or even more crazy low sc's pre flop?

I have problems to see many 2pair+ combos in his pre flop calling range.

I probably call flop, and every turn, unless I can find reasonable explanations why a tight regish player would call something like 44 or 97s preflop.

You are asking the wrong question.

When this tight reasonable player donks this flop for pot, what does his range look like?

If your answer is overpairs, I think you are way off...

So he’s gonna donk a set when it’s really likely we are going to cbet?

I fold. I don't know why he'd donk a set here, but considering most of you would shove, it seems reasonable. He's probably just protecting his hand -- as stupid as that seems to us. Unless OP is a maniac and/or 3betting very light -- or the opposite and folding too often, I see no reason for him to be bluffing here or doing this w/ an over pair.

solver suggests folding 100% against all combo draws and sets. I only get options if I add TT+ to his donk range.

But who the hell is donking here with TT-QQ?

I don't think anyone is -- unless he thinks you over-fold. Still very questionable, though.

I lot of V’s could donk here with TT-KK. Waited for a ‘safe’ flop, H whiffed w/ AK, V bombs it to protect hand / dent equity. Obviously not 100% of overpairs but way, way more than 0%.

What is the SB's range in this spot, according to solver?

To me, judging from this hand only, V doesn't appear particularly tight nor particularly reasonable ...

Anyway, imo, assuming V is somewhat tight/reasonable, the only set he can have is 99, and he doesn't have any 2p, nor draws. So, we are left with 99-QQ.
I hesitate between call and shove, probably leaning towards the former.
The only situation in which I may justify folding is if we have a read that V sees H as a nit, whose 3bet range preflop is QQ+. In this case, we could perhaps put V on 99 exactly.

I would assume that this is a worse overpair most of the time. It's a 3bet pot with an SPR of 3 and you have Aces, so don't fold.

To narrow his range strictly to 99+, I’d need a lot more reads on him. I just see he’s playing tight and not going crazy with anything. So I’d lean towards giving him a range that includes any suited broadways, maybe some mid-pairs like 77. That feels reasonable for a semi-reg to call pre here.

Not sure what’s going on in some people’s heads, but I figure there are times when players call preflop with KK hoping for a safer board. And now they’re deciding to bet.

To narrow his range strictly to 99+, I’d need a lot more reads on him. I just see he’s playing tight and not going crazy with anything. So I’d lean towards giving him a range that includes any suited broadways, maybe some mid-pairs like 77. That feels reasonable for a semi-reg to call pre here.

Not sure what’s going on in some people’s heads, but I figure there are times when players call preflop with KK hoping for a safer board. And now they’re deciding to bet.

I’m thinking any AA, AK♦, or non♦ KK are good to go all-in here. Anything else is a fold. Thoughts?

this hand reminded me of the Ivey vs Booth 376dd hand.

https://youtu.be/RC3ddhyKFOo?si=vhZcvmTdD5QrqdHI

YouTube

Phil Ivey Folds Kings to a Sick Bluff! | High Stakes Poker

i think both x/r and donk here with top set is a weird line.

Folding is wild, call flop and call turn or jam if checked to.

OP he can’t be reasonably tight and then have most combos of suited broadways in this preflop configuration.

Even bad but not terrible players aren’t cold calling here with most of those hands.

If he’s calling with all suited broadways he is going to have some flush draws that donk for pot to commit and max fold equity. Which makes way more sense than a set playing this way.

This is QQ-99 so often. I'd say there's a lot of AK/AQ cold calling as well but less likely to donk (apart from the nut flush draw which he can't have). If you jam you give him 2.5/1 and he's not folding an overpair (or a flush draw, if he has something like KQss). I'd discount 77 slightly from preflop and 44 almost entirely. You'll almost never see two pair.

Well, in live poker, we’re not playing 10 000 hands against an opponent to perfectly nail down their tendencies. Usually, we’re working with around 100-150 hands. So even if they’ve been playing tight all day, that doesn’t mean they’ll never call preflop here with something like JTs. I think we definitely need to keep that possibility in their range or at least not completely discount it.

The looser the SB is preflop, the more I like calling down post-flop.

Also your read on this player before this hand is that he is solid and reg-ish. But as soon as he cold calls a 20bb 3bet from the SB and donks for full pot multi-way, you have to adjust your read. This player is not a solid reg - he is very likely a fish. If you call down here and he has a set, you can adjust your play against him in the future.