Flopped TPTK facing serious heat multi-way.
1/3, $500 max BI, 9-handed. Parx Philly, Friday night around 9pm.
Hero, early 50's WG, LAG, running over the table for the past few hours, built up a >$3k stack off 1st BI. Mostly running pure, only been caught bluffing once or twice in the past few hours. Pretty much always had it at showdown.
V1 - MAWG, started out as loose-passive rec-fish, bordering on whale. Limp-calling a lot, even cold-calling some big 3B's. Wants to see flops. Won't fold to a single bet. Sometime in the past hour or two, he flipped a switch and is now borderline maniacal, especially facing hero, donking a lot, even multi-way on boards that wouldn't seem to favor his range, check-raising a lot, even with marginal hands, pushing with all his draws, tone of table-talk, etc. Around $800 to start the hand.
V2 - late 20's med-student, played with him a few times. Very smart. Very competent player. Rarely getting out of line, or too far. Mostly been quiet since he sat down, wearing his ear buds, not saying much, not playing very many hands. RFI'ing here and there, some over-limping, no open limping. Mostly staying away from hero. Sitting to V1's direct left, and two seats to hero's right. Around $600 to start the hand.
OTTH:
V1 open limps from EP. V2 over-limps next to act. Hero opens to $25 from MP/LP with AcQc. Folds back around. Both V1 and V2 call.
FLOP ($75) - Qs6d4s.
X, X, H $30. V1 $80. V2 call. H 3B $300. V1 4B jams AI. V2 calls AI for less. Pot is now $1725. $475 for hero to call, so a little more than 3.6 to 1.
Hero?
No really relevant hand histories with anything specific to go on. From what I've seen, V1 could be on a draw, or 1P + a draw, but could also have 66, 44, or 64 here, as well as 6s5s, or 53, or 75, or worse Qx, or just a naked flush draw. He was VPIP'ing close to 100% / calling my opens and 3B's close to 100%.
What had me worried was V2 flat-calling V1's x/r, and then calling V1's jam. It seemed very likely to me that he might take this line with 66/44, but probably wouldn't get here with just a naked flush draw or straight draw, or worse Qx, and I didn't think he'd get involved pre with 53s or 75s. I didn't think there was any way in hell he'd call V2's x/r with me still in the hand without a decent amount of equity.
Is this just an auto-fold with TPTK? It felt like it in-game. I was really regretting the 3B, but didn't like the idea of letting the draws see the turn for only $80. Once V1 jammed and V2 called, I didn't think there was any way I was good against both.
Doubt it would take much more than my two hands to count the number of times I've seen a $3K+ stack at my 1/3 NL table. Your game likely plays a lot differently than mine, but my two cents anyways...
I'm fine with a LP raise preflop. I might even go less to setup that bigger a playable SPR especially since we have no FE against the whale and will have to make a hand.
I'm fine with a flop cbet.
I'd be extremely worried about the V2 flop flat with action open behind him. Against the whale maybe we can continue (although my default is to not continue with just TP against flop check/raises, but he may be an exception). But with competent V2 coming along I just feel I'm either being tarped too often or at the very best being up against a massive equity hogging draw. We really need some stars to align to be in good shape. I would strongly consider a fold and think the reraise is a massive overplay. I guess we're getting good odds to toss in a sigh call after all the carnage is done (although what odds do we need if we're drawing dead?), but we should never be in this spot, imo.
This deep I wouldn't be overly worried about "charging draws" and be more worried about committing a bunch of chips with mediocre hands (especially multiway, especially with someone in the hand that is competent).
GbutIsuckatdeepstack,sothere'sthatG
I first thought you wanted to fold because of the whale, but then I remembered about the med student, who almost always has a set. Since there's potentially only another $200 to win in a side pot, this seems like a pretty easy fold.
Agreed that the first flop raise was fine, the second...not so much.
Doubt it would take much more than my two hands to count the number of times I've seen a $3K+ stack at my 1/3 NL table. Your game likely plays a lot differently than mine, but my two cents anyways...
I'm fine with a LP raise preflop. I might even go less to setup that bigger a playable SPR especially since we have no FE against the whale and will have to make a hand.
I'm fine with a flop cbet.
I'd be extremely worried about the V2 flop flat with action open behind him. Against the whale maybe we
I wouldn't say I see >$3k stacks at 1/3 "all the time", but I might see a $3k stack at 1/3 maybe every other week at Parx. It's probably the 4th or 5th time I've run that well in the past year or two. Very often it is the results of stars aligning to create big stack clashes for all the money.
Just to prove I'm human - I started my session off stuck $750 before switching tables.
I didn't regret my pre-flop raise size at this table (lots of loose action), nor my c-bet. But once V1 jammed and V2 called, I was very much regretting my 3B over V1's x/r.
In game, my thinking was that V2 is good enough to know I could just be range-betting the flop, and will fold a lot to V1's x/r, so he could call the x/r and be HU and IP if / when I fold. I didn't like the idea of just calling the smallish x/r, knowing there wouldn't be very many turn cards I'd like well enough to call off a big bet from V1, which I was expecting.
There were earlier hands where V1 x/r'd my c-bet, I'd call, and he'd just give up on the turn. Here, I didn't like letting V2 see a cheap turn with what I initially suspected would be a flush draw. I figured TPTK was likely to be the best hand when I raised. Obviously, once V1 jams and V2 calls, it seemed much less likely.
I first thought you wanted to fold because of the whale, but then I remembered about the med student, who almost always has a set. Since there's potentially only another $200 to win in a side pot, this seems like a pretty easy fold.
Agreed that the first flop raise was fine, the second...not so much.
Unclear to me what the bold/underlined text means. What second raise are we talking about?
In game, I was thinking V2 might take this line with a set - check flop, intending to check-raise when I c-bet, but then V1 beats him to it, and V2 decides to just flat-call instead, rather than back-raise, which would look insanely strong. Once he called off the rest of his stack, I didn't think I had much hope of winning the main pot.
I don't really think you can 3bet to this huge sizing and then fold to a jam for not that much more. You are going to be dead against V2 sometimes, but there is a small side pot with V1 who can have all sorts of garbage. There are also going to be some scenarios here where you are ahead of both players I think (V1 has spew, V2 has the nut flush draw).
I do think 3betting the flop is a mistake this deep (not to mention multi-way), but that's been covered.
Not sure I'm ready to fold here. Is V2 really just flatting the $80 w/ a set? With the $200 side pot w/ V1, I think I make the call.
Edit: FWIW, I think 3betting the flop is fine vs. these guys given action on flop. Just a weird outcome.
Without reading anything past the action I'm calling AP given the odds but I dont like your 3-bet. Competent players' limp calling range OOP is almost exclusively small PPs and small SCs at my game, maybe not even SCs unless uber deep. Q64-FD I can see 3-betting though. But I just call IP and see the runout, very static, lots of brick turns will cream their drawing equity. Not sure what turn cards we fold to facing a large bet. a king? or a 7? Also V2's callcall line concerns me. I give V2 a set and V1 a weak Q a lot here.
I first thought you wanted to fold because of the whale, but then I remembered about the med student, who almost always has a set. Since there's potentially only another $200 to win in a side pot, this seems like a pretty easy fold.
Agreed that the first flop raise was fine, the second...not so much.
This is the key bit for me. Agree that we are far more worried about the quiet but deadly villain who called a 4bet flop jam.
Flop 3bet would be fine (and probably best?) heads up, it's a bit sketchy multiway, but the jam and particularly the call make me very worried.
I wasn't first to act. I was last to act.
Flop action went V1 check, V2 check, hero c-bet, V1 check-raise, V2 call, hero 3B, V1 4B jam, V2 call all in for less.
Hope that makes sense. The action is somewhat confusing, if only because it's fairly unusual to see a check-raise-4B-three-way-all-in on the flop.
Either one can have a flush draw. v1 can also have 75 53.
Easy call on the raise.
Not wanting them to get a cheap turn is bad reasoning, you arent that far ahead of the bigger draws, and you have position so they will value bet themselves or you can anyway ott when they whiff, and if the flush comes you can save money.
Youre likely facing one flush draw, harder to face two, but V1 is playing wide enough that its more likely. Id probably crying call i guess, but its close, and like i say, idve just called flop raise.
So, if it helps...
I was and still am very angry at myself for my flop 3B. In my defense (barely), V1 was check-raising so wide in other hands that I really thought he'd either flat call the 3B, or fold, and I'd end up HU and IP with either him or V2.
Once V1 jammed and V2 called, I was struggling to figure out the equities and pot odds in my head, for all the various scenarios which were possible here.
I'm drawing almost dead against sets, and figured I was a slight under-dog against combo-draws and 6Xss.
The best possible scenario seemed to be that they were both on flush draws, and I might be 50-50 to win. But that seemed like the least likely scenario to me.
If I were to flat call the flop, there are going to be so many turns I hate. Any spade, any 2 through 8, any K, any 9 through J that might make someone a goofy 2P with Qx. Even a Q might make someone a boat. And an off-suit Ace will just get me broke against their flopped sets.
The only way I could see for me to reach the river, if I just flat called the flop, would be to call a big turn barrel from V1 on an ace or Q, and hope he either checks river or I boat up.
I kind of wish you had done this as a PAHWM. It's easy to think the flop raise was bad considering the outcome (or not), but if they had folded, or only V1 had shoved w/ a draw, it would be genius 😉
Either one can have a flush draw. v1 can also have 75 53.
Easy call on the raise.
Not wanting them to get a cheap turn is bad reasoning, you arent that far ahead of the bigger draws, and you have position so they will value bet themselves or you can anyway ott when they whiff, and if the flush comes you can save money.
Youre likely facing one flush draw, harder to face two, but V1 is playing wide enough that its more likely. Id probably crying call i guess, but its close, and like i say, idve just
Not taking into account the split pot, I think we need like 21.6% equity for this to be a profitable call. Someone please correct me if that's not right.
The thing is, it is harder for them both to be on a flush draw, but that's the best possible scenario here. My equity against two un-paired flush draws is almost 58%. If we could put them both on a flush draw, it would be an extremely profitable call.
We're getting the right odds to call if one has a naked flush draw, and the other 6sXs (around 40%). We're getting the correct odds to call against a flush draw and OESD (33%).
If either has a set or 2P, my equity plummets, and we're not getting the right odds to call. As soon as we give one of these guys 2P, I drop to around 16%. If we give one of them a set, I've got like 2%.
I kind of wish you had done this as a PAHWM. It's easy to think the flop raise was bad considering the outcome (or not), but if they had folded, or only V1 had shoved w/ a draw, it would be genius 😉
Perhaps you're right. I think most here would likely say I should just flat call the x/r, and some might say we should fold.
I'd be afraid of everyone chasing me around with pitchforks and torches if I then posted that I 3B over the x/r.
Not taking into account the split pot, I think we need like 21.6% equity for this to be a profitable call. Someone please correct me if that's not right.
The thing is, it is harder for them both to be on a flush draw, but that's the best possible scenario here. My equity against two un-paired flush draws is almost 58%. If we could put them both on a flush draw, it would be an extremely profitable call.
We're getting the right odds to call if one has a naked flush draw, and the other 6sXs (around
I played around with this hand in an equity calculator. If V1 has a range that includes nutted hands (low sets, all suited two pair), lots of draws, and some occasional spew (KQo maybe) and V2 has a range of sets (66, 44) and realistic draws (A9ss - A2ss, 65ss, 67ss), you have something like 20% equity overall.
The fact that you have more equity in the side pot against V1 means you are likely getting the right price to call here.
I played around with this hand in an equity calculator. If V1 has a range that includes nutted hands (low sets, all suited two pair), lots of draws, and some occasional spew (KQo maybe) and V2 has a range of sets (66, 44) and realistic draws (A9ss - A2ss, 65ss, 67ss), you have something like 20% equity overall.
The fact that you have more equity in the side pot against V1 means you are likely getting the right price to call here.
I'll admit my on the fly math skillz are not up to the task of figuring all that out when there's a smallish side pot. Appreciate you figuring it out.
Is it realistic to think or expect us humans to be able to figure it out in game? I tend to rely more on easy to remember heuristics. This seemed like a spot where we're not going to have enough equity often enough to make the call.
I mean, even from a maniac, a check-raise-4B-jam for over 250 bb's looks pretty nutted. The flat call from V2 looks insanely nutted.
Grunch: obviously the flop 3b is debatable. Surely fine some % of the time but probably not 100%. AP I think it’s a super easy call based on V’s and H’s image, plus pot odds.
I'll admit my on the fly math skillz are not up to the task of figuring all that out when there's a smallish side pot. Appreciate you figuring it out.
Is it realistic to think or expect us humans to be able to figure it out in game? I tend to rely more on easy to remember heuristics. This seemed like a spot where we're not going to have enough equity often enough to make the call.
I mean, even from a maniac, a check-raise-4B-jam for over 250 bb's looks pretty nutted. The flat call from V2 looks in
Oh yeah, just to be clear, I didn't use human math to determine you had 20% equity in this spot. I used an equity calculator that allows me to input ranges for each opponent. Then it runs the hundreds of thousands of different scenarios for me. If you don't have a tool like this, you should definitely get one. Equilab is one of the more popular ones and I'm pretty sure it's free. Really useful and actually pretty fun to play around with.
I don't think it's possible to figure out what your equity is in this spot at the table. If I'm your shoes at the table, I am trying to do the pot odds quickly and then trying to assign some quick ranges. If I am getting a good price and I can think of enough stuff I'm ahead of, I usually call.
I don't think folding in this spot is a big mistake though. Obviously it's really close, and you are going to be drawing dead a lot.
Oh yeah, just to be clear, I didn't use human math to determine you had 20% equity in this spot. I used an equity calculator that allows me to input ranges for each opponent. Then it runs the hundreds of thousands of different scenarios for me. If you don't have a tool like this, you should definitely get one. Equilab is one of the more popular ones and I'm pretty sure it's free. Really useful and actually pretty fun to play around with.
I don't think it's possible to figure out what your equity
I just use a poker odds calculator like the one at 888poker.com to get some quick calcs done for spots like this. I think we're on the same page, that having a sophisticated equity calculator to use away from the table will only get us so far when we find ourselves in a spot like this at the table.
In game, I was just thinking, "I have to catch perfect to beat sets. I'm probably around 2% or less there. I'm a slight favorite against one draw. Not sure how I'm doing against 2 draws, but might be 50-50."
It's not just doing the math to figure out the equity versus the possible ranges. It's also figuring out the ranges given the reads. V1 could be all over the map, but V2 shouldn't be involved without a significant amount of equity, if my read is correct.
I don't want to spoil the reveal, but after seeing their hands, and running the numbers, I was surprised to see that if this was heads up against either V, I'd have been either a slight favorite or a slight under-dog. The equities start to get wonky when we start assigning a range to each V, and keeping them both in the hand.
There's a flaw in your overall reasoning, you raised to charge draws a price but when you get action to the raise you aren't ranging your opponents on draws. As played this is just a call, our intention was to get draws to put more chips into the pot now all the money is in the pot. Somewhere your read on the hand changed but if our initial read was we're going to 3bet for value/protection we shouldn't be dong this as a 3bet/fold.
There's a flaw in your overall reasoning, you raised to charge draws a price but when you get action to the raise you aren't ranging your opponents on draws. As played this is just a call, our intention was to get draws to put more chips into the pot now all the money is in the pot. Somewhere your read on the hand changed but if our initial read was we're going to 3bet for value/protection we shouldn't be dong this as a 3bet/fold.
There's a difference between V's putting more money into the pot with their draws and worse hands, and them putting ALL their money in, which would seem to strengthen their ranges a lot, making it seem less likely that they have a draw or a worse hand.
My raise was intended to build a pot I expected to win, with what was likely to be the best hand, and deny equity. Once V1 jams and V2 calls, my hand no longer seems best, and I can't deny any more equity, and I don't have the same expectation of winning the pot.
i mean i think the 3b and the logic behind it doesn't really make sense. but ignoring that, i think the guy in the middle has a draw like always.
anyways back to the 3bet. theres no way you can 3b a guy who u think has been playing back at u and maniacal for essentially half of the remaining stack without knowing what to do. to me the hand looks like bad fundamentals, if you 3b this hand its for value with intent to get it all in. i think its too light to do that as a default. id call the x/r and make a decision on the turn. yeah its uncomfortable if the flush draw gets there or whatever, and you let your opponents realize their equity, but your hand is just not strong enough to play for it all here. you're ip and your equity improves on a clean turn. the point of poker isn't to make sure your opponents don't realize their equity, it's to make the most +ev decision. that can't be to put in half of your stack and fold a made hand on a drawy board vs an unpredictable opponent (raising to see where you're at is what this used to be called lol).
There's a difference between V's putting more money into the pot with their draws and worse hands, and them putting ALL their money in, which would seem to strengthen their ranges a lot, making it seem less likely that they have a draw or a worse hand.
My raise was intended to build a pot I expected to win, with what was likely to be the best hand, and deny equity. Once V1 jams and V2 calls, my hand no longer seems best, and I can't deny any more equity, and I don't have the same expectation of w
maybe, maybe not. we 3bet a x/r. it's possible V just plays their entire x/r range as a jam to continue here. if we start including a 3bet for value/fold range with AQ in it then that strategy is going to be doing pretty well.
vs this sizing i don't think we really see a call that often, just jam or fold.
I kind of wish you had done this as a PAHWM. It's easy to think the flop raise was bad considering the outcome (or not), but if they had folded, or only V1 had shoved w/ a draw, it would be genius 😉
This could be, but I dont think so. I also agree with PugDolk that the sizing screws you up when you get 4 bet.
So when it came back to you first time, it was 315 in the pot (including you matching) with 695 behind. I dont like jamming >2x pot on the flop. I also dont like your bet of $220. I feel like a small 3 bet like $75 more would never get folds and also just induce (for better or worse).
I think the reason I dont love any of the sizing options is that just as a general rule, i almost never try and get all in before the river except when its a pure value bet and i dont expect V to fold. If you had a hand like QQ, or 7s5s, i just dont see this big hurry to get the money in, because its quite easy to get the rest in on later streets, and if the flush comes, well, its not like you couldve pushed them off it anyway.