2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Hillary won Cal by 30 points in 2016, Biden, a stronger candidate won by 29 points in 2020. Kamala is sitting at 22 points in the sunshine state.
She needs to outperform the polls or my Pop vote is in jeopardy
Harris leads Trump by a wide margin in California, says new Berkeley IGS Poll
The poll of likely voters and those who already have voted finds that Harris leads former president Trump 57% to 35%, with 3% favoring other candidates and 5% undecided. But four years ago, Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by 29 points, and IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said his last voter survey before the election pointed to a “particularly striking” loss of support for the Democratic ticket among those two groups...
To state the obvious, there is no way the true odds shifted that much in 48 hours. I suspect that 57% is much closer to the true odds than 67%, but that's mostly a gut feeling.
I am not sure why you believe that odds can't shift that much with relevant credible information about voting patterns changing vs expectations.
I agree Trump chances look worse than they did a few days ago
And at some point Buffett had a bigger % of it than the french whale had a % of trump on polymarket
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptoc...
The four "Trump whale" accounts represent around 25% of the Trump winning the Electoral College prediction contracts and around 40% of the Trump winning the popular vote prediction contracts according to Polymarket Analytics, the report said. The trader is unable to exit his large wagers without sending the price significantly lower due to the size of his bets.
At the end of 2023, Berkshire Hathaway owned 905,560,000 shares of the iPhone maker, and as of April 15, this translates to a market value of approximately $156 billion. Berkshire Hathaway's investment represents 5.9% ownership of Apple
She did if she wanted real power, she had no way to rise inside trump GOP with a neocon name and legacy.
Too many other people with "clean" nativist, isolationist and so on track records had been boot licking Trump enough to leave 0 space for Cheney.
She could have continued in insignificance but she eyed a chance for a lot more, to become a prime power broker in one of the only 2 relevant parties in the USA, and she gambled on that.
she gambled and won. the Dems are fully neocon now. tbh they probably always were but now it is out in the open. and she will find a place in the Kamala administration.
some liberals say things like "you dont need to agree with their politics" but that is simply bc many liberals stand for nothing.
she gambled and won. the Dems are fully neocon now. tbh they probably always were but now it is out in the open. and she will find a place in the Kamala administration.
some liberals say things like "you dont need to agree with their politics" but that is simply bc many liberals stand for nothing.
she's is not powerful inside the democratic party. They wine and dine her but she calls no shots.
I think that will change when or if Kamala wins. I think that is the reason Kamala keeps publicly stating that she will include a Republican on her team or even cabinet. they want to bring her in.
Ok Eeyore. Scratch a disillusioned Bernie bro…..
ya she is probably just lying. or just off her gourd on whatever drug cocktail shes been on.
A tiny bit of cooperation between parties, let's pray it doesn't come to that!
Burn it all down, just don’t take my welfare benefits, right.
not a big fan of cooperating with war criminals responsible for millions of deaths. like, what are they gonna cooperate on? killing people.
taking all poll average and imputing it has trump with a clear win atm. kami needs to make a comeback in pa in the next few days
I am not sure why you believe that odds can't shift that much with relevant credible information about voting patterns changing vs expectations.
I agree Trump chances look worse than they did a few days ago
This isn't a basketball game. In the absence of intervening international events, major gaffes, or some weird gameday weather events in pivotal states, the outcome is almost guaranteed now. And it was almost guaranteed three days ago. We just don't know what the outcome is because we haven't counted the votes yet.
Put another way, if we could rewind the planet to October 30 and run this exercise multiple times, the same person would win the election the overwhelming majority of the time. And most of the divergence would be attributable to the sorts of events I mentioned above. If we rewound the planet to the middle of the summer, or to a year ago, we would see more variance in the results.
This isn't a basketball game. In the absence of intervening international events, major gaffes, or some weird gameday weather events in pivotal states, the outcome is almost guaranteed now. And it was almost guaranteed three days ago. We just don't know what the outcome is because we haven't counted the votes yet.
Put another way, if we could rewind the planet to October 30 and run this exercise multiple times, the same person would win the election the overwhelming majority of the time. And
So you think the undecided aren't actually undecided? the "i am not sure if i am even voting at all or not" are actually sure? maybe in a mechanistic sense that's true but then that's true for a basketball game as well.
I come from a De Finettian definition of probability so i disagree definitionally (if on nov 6 you don't know yet how elections went, that's still an event you can attribute a probability to, and no it's not always the same in most universe re-runs) but i want to understand what you mean with that
It is very funny to me to watch the bernie shitbros who totally voted for biden but are totally down for burning it all down anyway cuz (insert one item that gives them plausible deniability to justify them being down for the cause)
Not a targeted indictment on any one person ITT, just a general observation on the bernie shitbros in general loudly announcing ‘I voted for biden but now I have no choice but to vote for trump because of (random single issue)’
they arent voting for Trump. most arent voting or will vote 3rd party.
Like the mental gymnastics it takes to vote against Harris or not vote at all because of Gaza (assuming that is actually the reason except I do not ****ing believe you for a second) is ****ing hysterical
1. Netanyahu isn’t being stopped by biden
2. Harris is obviously basically biden
3. Netanyahu named the embassy the Donald Trump embassy
4. Trump hates Muslims
5. Biden failed Gaza so Harris doesn’t deserve to be president
6. Maybe things will be worse for Gaza with Trump as president but things must get worse before they get better
7. ???????????
8. I’m smarter than you blue MAGA
no its just that I dont vote for people doing genocide. I didnt vote for Bush either.
Like the mental gymnastics it takes to vote against Harris or not vote at all because of Gaza (assuming that is actually the reason except I do not ****ing believe you for a second) is ****ing hysterical
1. Netanyahu isn’t being stopped by biden
2. Harris is obviously basically biden
3. Netanyahu named the embassy the Donald Trump embassy
4. Trump hates Muslims
5. Biden failed Gaza so Harris doesn’t deserve to be president
6. Maybe things will be worse for Gaza with Trump as president but
It's the same nonsense in which people try to claim that Trump and Biden/Harris/Clinton are all the same so they won't between those options but somehow there is a massive difference between Bernie Sanders and Clinton or Biden. They are either dumb or think everyone else is to not see the idiocy in that.
So you think the undecided aren't actually undecided? the "i am not sure if i am even voting at all or not" are actually sure? maybe in a mechanistic sense that's true but then that's true for a basketball game as well.
Yes. If we did universe re-runs from October 30, I think an overwhelming percentage of undecideds would vote the same way in each simulation, and a large percentage of the people who say they are unsure if they would vote would make the same decision in each re-run.
I come from a De Finettian definition of probability so i disagree definitionally (if on nov 6 you don't know yet how elections went, that's still an event you can attribute a probability to, and no it's not always the same in most universe re-runs) but i want to understand what you mean with that
We obviously can attribute a probability to the question of whether we are reading the tea leaves correctly.
