2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
By taking a stance (in this case voting) you have made a decision which can be attacked. These people don't like to defend, they just like to attack. It's all about shaming, not about actually doing anything.
Yes. If we did universe re-runs from October 30, I think an overwhelming percentage of undecideds would vote the same way in each simulation, and a large percentage of the people who say they are unsure if they would vote would make the same decision in each re-run.
We obviously can attribute a probability to the question of whether we are reading the tea leaves correctly.
ye ok i think more like all situations are actual schrodinger cats, truly RNG-based, it's not about a lack of info on the side of the observer, it's about the act of observation will collapse the cloud of possibility but until that happens the cloud exists, not the fixed result you just lack detailed infos about.
You might think similarly but in the case of election think that the RNG structure is very different and we just lack info
By taking a stance (in this case voting) you have made a decision which can be attacked. These people don't like to defend, they just like to attack. It's all about shaming, not about actually doing anything.
Dunno, but if that was the case the % of undecided wouldn't systematically decrease a lot closer to election day. You would have X% of people who "don't like to defend" and those will keep claiming they are undecided.
This isn't a basketball game. In the absence of intervening international events, major gaffes, or some weird gameday weather events in pivotal states, the outcome is almost guaranteed now. And it was almost guaranteed three days ago. We just don't know what the outcome is because we haven't counted the votes yet.
Put another way, if we could rewind the planet to October 30 and run this exercise multiple times, the same person would win the election the overwhelming majority of the time. And
Its probably too late to completely change the events now since 1/4th of votes are in but even a few days ago people were saying the trump wiith rally with kill tony rally shifted the numbers. Anything can happen in the next few days its a very live election.
Many wont vote for Harris because of gaza and the 'logic' being used to attack them is nonsense.
They are incredibly angry and upset at what israel is doing with usa support.
The idea they logicaly should vote for the people giving that support is nonesense however bad the alternative cadidate is.
like polls have trump winning pa and by extension the election by a small 0.06%............. so ya... I think the things the candidates do in the next 3 days will matter
I mean….wat
Also the reports of this dude building a compound for his 11 kids and 4 baby mamas is…..some profoundly insane ****
By taking a stance (in this case voting) you have made a decision which can be attacked. These people don't like to defend, they just like to attack. It's all about shaming, not about actually doing anything.
Right. Gaza is mostly a rhetorical tactic. If not for Gaza there would be some other talking point as to why boTh sIdeZ sAmE.
Many wont vote for Harris because of gaza and the 'logic' being used to attack them is nonsense.
They are incredibly angry and upset at what israel is doing with usa support.
The idea they logicaly should vote for the people giving that support is nonesense however bad the alternative cadidate is.
Define many, and we'll see in a few days if you are right.
Do you think Harris will get a % of the vote lower than Biden, or simply fewer absolute votes? if the latter how can we know how much that's because after covid many states reduced the extent of voting from home availability?
Would you be ok using states that didn't change procedures 2024 vs 2020 and check turnouts and absolute votes vs Biden to determine if your claim is true? but even then, how can we know if it's because Gaza or because Harris is slightly less likeable than Biden was in 2020?
elon musk has said many times on every podcasts he wants to have as many children as he can this just seems like his usual self. How dare he bring well taken care of future billionaires into the world! what a horrible person
I agree it would be about the same. There are big enough differences in other aspects though, no matter how bland Harris is likely to be. If you could go back to the 2016 election knowing what you know now about Roe v Wade and you were guaranteed to be the deciding vote, would you have voted Clinton?
Many wont vote for Harris because of gaza and the 'logic' being used to attack them is nonsense.
They are incredibly angry and upset at what israel is doing with usa support.
The idea they logicaly should vote for the people giving that support is nonesense however bad the alternative cadidate is.
Lol
So let me understand your post
1. Israel and USA are tied at the hip regardless of anything anyone does or says
2. Of trump, biden and, I guess Harris? Only trump is the one who has had america drop bombs on middle eastern countries and has directly ordered assassinations of political figures by American forces in middle eastern countries
3. Netanyahu is one of the many demogaugic forces who publicly jerks off trump to completion
4. Trump has a predisposition towards complete and utter contempt for the Middle East and Muslims in general and believes iran is trying to assassinate him
5. Trump is by leaps and bounds the most destructive option for the lives of people in the Middle East which is allegedly what these performative, white, probably bernie shitbros care about the most
And I’m supposed to sit here and ignore the hypocrisy of willingly choosing to accept 2-5 because 1?
Hard pass. As a Muslim I don’t need your ‘I’m offended on your behalf’ bullshit you’re clearly just using as an excuse
elon musk has said many times on every podcasts he wants to have as many children as he can this just seems like his usual self. How dare he bring well taken care of future billionaires into the world! what a horrible person
Hate to break it to you buddy but Leon won’t be adopting you
muslims choosing not to cast a vote against the muslim ban guy is something very special indeed. the tricks people play on themselves
Define many, and we'll see in a few days if you are right.
Do you think Harris will get a % of the vote lower than Biden, or simply fewer absolute votes? if the latter how can we know how much that's because after covid many states reduced the extent of voting from home availability?
Would you be ok using states that didn't change procedures 2024 vs 2020 and check turnouts and absolute votes vs Biden to determine if your claim is true? but even then, how can we know if it's because Gaza or becaus
I have little idea on the %age votes. I have a sense that Harris is going to beat trump relatively comfortably but that may be more hope than anyhting else.
We never know for sure why people vote but we can read what they say. I have no quarrel with those who hold their noses and vote for Harris or even those who think the democrats may change stance if Harris becomes president (I have a small hope of that).
I agree it would be about the same. There are big enough differences in other aspects though, no matter how bland Harris is likely to be. If you could go back to the 2016 election knowing what you know now about Roe v Wade and you were guaranteed to be the deciding vote, would you have voted Clinton?
I dont think the Dems will do enough to protect abortion or anything else really.
again, its not just Gaza. Dems have moved far right on almost everything else including immigration and law enforcement and are openly courting neocon warmongers like the Cheneys.
Right. Gaza is mostly a rhetorical tactic. If not for Gaza there would be some other talking point as to why boTh sIdeZ sAmE.
probably given the Dems stance on well everything.
elon musk has said many times on every podcasts he wants to have as many children as he can this just seems like his usual self. How dare he bring well taken care of future billionaires into the world! what a horrible person
pretty sure he also implied in a very clear way he meant that only with exceptionally over average women. He could sire thousands of children with willing random women just guaranteeing them a decent annuity in exchange but he is not doing that.
He wants top 0.1% or better IQ and the rest in the mothers
Lol
So let me understand your post
1. Israel and USA are tied at the hip regardless of anything anyone does or says
2. Of trump, biden and, I guess Harris? Only trump is the one who has had america drop bombs on middle eastern countries and has directly ordered assassinations of political figures by American forces in middle eastern countries
3. Netanyahu is one of the many demogaugic forces who publicly jerks off trump to completion
4. Trump has a predisposition towards complete and utter contempt f
It's just nonsense justification for 'least bad' once again
If we're in the realm of consequentialism which is itself debatable, the only way pro palasetian voice get their democratic voice heard is to make their vote depend on it.
also why is this a politics thread. don't you degenerates have like 3 us politic/ palastine/isreal threads. I clicked this expecting to see election predictions or talks about the elections not the same old boring toxic politics
It's just nonsense justification for 'least bad' once again
If we're in the realm of consequentialism which is itself debatable, the only way pro palasetian voice get their democratic voice heard is to make their vote depend on it.
Well that’s the intellectual pitfall of being a single issue voter now isn’t it?
I will happily take least bad on one issue to avoid massive catastrophe on many others
If Palestinian-Americans are sitting it out I can’t say I blame them cuz that single issue is a massive single issue
But if generic white bro is using that as a single issue, man **** you
apparantly the votes that may be decided over Gaza/etc matter to some key parts of the election.
Is that not the case?
also why is this a politics thread. don't you degenerates have like 3 us politic/ palastine/isreal threads. I clicked this expecting to see election predictions or talks about the elections not the same old boring toxic politics
I think it's ok to discuss if "real left" people at the end are going to vote Harris or not, and / or to try to guesstimate how many will stay at home or vote Stein over Gaza or whatever else motivates the "real left", in a thread about elections in the USA.
They might not matter, but we'll only know after the fact. At some point in the last couple of months for example Michigan, which should be blue, was in play partly because if you think enough "real leftists" care aboit Gaza et al enough, Michigan could vote Trump (i don't think it will given polls but we'll only know later on).
