stupid bluff? $1/3/6 straddle -600 eff

Do you hate money?

Also, what does it mean to say "...[he] isn't good, but no reads"?

check preflop.

flop bet is too small. would you bet this small with AK on a board like this vs one opponent? i doubt it.

turn bet is generally too small. do you have a club in your hand? if you do not its makes all the more sense to size up more to get him to fold his fd+pair equity.

river makes no sense give the small flop/turn bets. that said i can see it working enough to be profitable because most people dont like to get stacked this deep with a weak Ax hand. obviously if he backed into two pair it wont work.

Yes i hate money. But really what i should’ve said , limps with a wide range but no other read than that.

Can u tell me why it’s bad? Is it because we don’t expect villian to ever fold Ax here at these stakes, or my line makes no sense? I thought it did for AA, TT, 99, even AT.

i was setting up flop and turn for a pot size river jam.

Firstly, I'm not looking to squeeze with KJo, unless you've seen the types of hands people overlimp with in straddle pots and how they respond to raises.

Secondly, you're trying to blast the villain off his hand, which began 100bb effective, without knowing if he has a fold button. The turn and river are terrible cards for you to bluff, and I can't see Ax folding this river.

Thirdly, he has all the 2-pair and maybe even TT/99. The fact you could have all the sets probably isn't enough to claim a large range advantage. If he's on a flush draw and whiffs, your K-high likely is the winner anyway.

It almost feels like once you saw the flop, you said, "Screw it, I'm taking this" without really thinking it through.

Fish underfold on Ace high boards and it’s very likely he has one.

When you are OOP as the PFR you want to use broken lines to bluff fish not triple barrel lines.

Completely fine.

I don’t personally have KJo in my bluff range, but there’s probably a strat where it makes sense.

Flop is so favorable you can bet 1/2p+ even when betting range.

I’d bet $200+ OTT.

Those are all kinda nitpicks though.

ETA: Well I guess first point isn’t a nitpick. If you’re raising all broadways pre and/or blasting off all missed draws then it becomes very bad very quickly, and in a way that the population is likely to exploit.

What do you mean by broken lines?

What would be better turn and rivers to bluff? And on this run out, what hands would be better bluffs?

Any line with a check in it is a broken line.

You don’t triple barrel bluff Fish as OOP PFR since they over call. Especially on Ace high boards.

We also don’t want to use big bets in triple barrel lines for bluffs since fish are inelastic.

If you look at MDF for fish the bigger you bet the more they over defend.

I think this is entirely dependent on population. IME the standard 1/3-2/5 rec is loose passive pre and then gets tighter with each street.

I honestly feels like it’s hard to get paid off w TPTK for three streets at these stakes, barring a station read on villain, a lagg image for hero, or some other special dynamic.

One of us must be misunderstanding the other because I don’t see how this makes any sense.

I was actually looking at MDA on this recently and found fish really overfold every street, but IP on the river is their most overfolded spot. Mind you, this is online where I’d say the fish stack off significantly lighter just because the absolute dollar amounts are so small, whereas a guy at a 1/3 game is gonna be pretty pissed off about torching $600 in a spot where it makes no sense to not put us on AK.

The fact that fish don’t understand relative value is exactly why I’m inclined to bluff dry runouts and underbluff really heavy boards. Granted, this board’s a little between the two because we will run into some A4 type stuff as well as slow played T9 and all, but a lot of their range is marginal single pairs and whiffed draws that hate to face aggression.

I think the prevalence of whiffed draws also make a post-oak bluff reasonable.

Can we x/r flop on AT9 after bombing pf? Or is that just torching $ even faster? Plus letting l-c range draw for free.

Do think that if we cbet, needs to be bigger--2/3-3/4 pot. Then maybe x-r Turn when 2nd flush draw pops up? Or just shut it down if they call Flop?

So they overfold flop which makes you want to bluff less OTT and then not bluff river.

The Ace high board data point is really bad for us since fish love calling Ax hands preflop

Because when a FD flush draw misses think you will find the percentage of calls dramatically increases.

I would just check preflop. As played I’d X flop since you can call a stab. If he checks back, now we attack since he has weakened his range.

Okay, so there was a misunderstanding. By getting tighter each street I mean their fold frequency increases with each street. In other words, they basically way overcall preflop, call at about the right frequency OTF, overfold the turn, and way overfold the river.

This is all on a broad population basis, obviously there are recs who way overfold flop and players who never fold to one street, etc.

It’s also population dependent and can vary based on things like how long poker’s been in your area, if this is the smallest game in your room, and if it’s a weekend night with drinks in every cup holder.

I think my games lean relatively tight/solid.

But my point is in my personal experience people are folding a lot of aces.

Again, population dependent, but to put things in perspective you can give a bot every suited ace and A9o+, and it still calls over 80% of the time with Ax just to get up to a 37% call rate OTR.

Granted OOP always checks K-high because it’s already ahead of so much of what IP folds and in practice you can probably get away with a post-oak bluff. So if we’re going to critique OP’s play, I think it should be on those grounds.

I’m never triple barreling here expecting to get an ace to fold.

It’s totally unbalanced but against the pool I play in I’m just going for fat value with AK+ and I’m not balancing it with bluffs. On the whiffed double flush AT9 board we’re going to be perceived as having a lot of bluffs that made it to the river with no showdown value.

Oh okay my fault.

I agree they way overcall preflop. Here is the data I use and it has them overfolding every street.

Flop

Turn

River

Some other points to consider:

1. Ace high boards will be called more than the aggregate

2. Double Flush draw board turns plus blank rivers with be overfolded more than the aggregate (fish can't fold flush draws and will float BDFD OTF so a blank river is good for us)

I don't hate the bluff as much as I initially did because of the double flush draw turn + blank river but there are more profitable bluff lines. I would say we much prefer using a X-B-B line or B-X-B line.

I also agree it's individual specific but we don't know the player so the best we can do in analyzing the hand is population reads.

Not a fan of the iso pre, some players limp call hands that dominate, and we are folding out a lot of hands that we have in bad shape. We’re also going to be in an spr 5 spot with top pair or middle pair with an ok kicker oop. Not ideal.

Your river bomb should work against an ace but you’re about to get nit rolled by 2 pair a lot. That said, if the fish called an 8x iso with A8 he might look you up anyways.

This flop smashes a limp call range. It might seems weak on an ace high board but against a loose passive I start with a check fold flop and probably delay cbet and bomb river if he checks back.

What do F30 and C30 and all that mean?

If I just translate all of that in my head to b30, etc it makes sense in context lol, but was curious what it actually means.

I should also clarify that my position here is the same as my positon on many bluffs posted in this sub: the execution’s off (preflop is an enormous mistake if done linearly and interacts horribly with the postflop strat, river is a polarity mistake and I have questions about sizing on all streets except preflop) but:

1) I like the gumption,

2) it’s not as bad and not bad for the same reasons that the LLSNL blob hates it, and

3) I appreciate OP enough for not making me read the 12th “can I fold AA for 100bbs” post of the day that I’ll defend them to the death.

I’d put my money on posters like OP learning how to bluff through study and practice and rising out of the low stakes rake trap before I ever bet on someone who has been posting “fold and wait for a better spot” 10 times a day for 15 years and still plays 1/3NL.

I would just call preflop. Not a good hand to build a pot OOP with. You also fold out hands you dominate. Raise is not terrible though.

I would cbet larger. On the turn, we have a really wet board with an ace, three high cards, and 2 2-flushes. This is not a good situation to bluff with a gutshot. I would check/fold. River push has problems as it looks like a missed flush draw. Opponent may have trouble calling allin with weak ace though.

In general, I would not look to build the pot OOP preflop with a trap hand. A wet board is also not best for running bluffs. You can put a lot of pressure bluffing for stacks, but it is easier to steal pots with smaller bets when opponents don't have much. This kind of playing for stacks works better at higher stakes and in tournaments.