2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Ignore domer who has a16 year track record of +EV politics betting and is the biggest winner on polymarket

But listen to Cody, who has an eagle and an American flag as his profile picture.

hope so, sweat free plz

i have a lot of respect for domer, but his roi is less than 1% even with free money spots out there like cold fusion markets

he's more of a market maker who collects fees and rewards than a predictive savant

final predictions?

harris wins close, harris wins PV easily ill say

women vote/abortion carries the day

I thought Trump was about 55/45. Though, as Rickroll observed, some of the market shift is buy back, I think a lot is people taking good prices. I mentioned I know some, including Trump supporters. I believe that the bettors being Trump's exact demos has to skew things a little. So current prices suggest a flip, maybe very slightly favoring Trump.

Harris is surging in polls and models. J think with the hard evidence we have it is a flip. I like the Harris narratives. Better than usual female turnout. Trump's core of True believers who turn out hard is lessened. But polls have tried to adjust in Trump's favor.

Imo, this time round Trump voters are more normal, in that they see him as the lesser evil, and less super excited to vote for a savior.

I change my mind every time I think about it, but now I'll say, Harris wins the flip.

Have bet Harris popular vote. Leaving rest of powder dry for post election betting.

Not calling an eventual winner. I don't necessarily see it as close but just unclear which narratives are correct.

I am not even that big of a Domer hater, I acknowledge his success. But he literally has TDS and has been wrong about this market every year he has bet it. He got extremely lucky in 2020 and but for that, the perception of him would (imo) be far different.

For what it's worth I believe Harris is a small favourite currently too after the latest polling. Obviously nowhere near as much of a lock as Biden was last sample but she's come back in about 50 cents for a reason, the momentum has re-flipped a bit in the final days.

Am waiting for complete information at this stage though before firing anything.

The idea that anyone got lucky betting on Biden in 2020 is flatly ridiculous, there was a significant polling error in Trump's favour and Biden still won fairly handily with a couple states to spare. That was probably the second easiest election since I have been betting on politics to predict, with Obama/McCain being the most obvious.

I do regret missing the window where Harris pop vote was briefly like -165 but I got greedy as at the time the Trump money was streaming in and now that's reversed

Will take and post my final positions before polls open

Yes, obviously the swing states are very correlated and I actually think that either candidate -64.5 and -99.5 is probably +EV right now although prefer the Harris side as I think that's the undervalued market side

If Harris's turnout game is good she wins, if it falters, Trump wins imo - I think she will get it done, but obviously it's nowhere near as much of a lock as last cycle where the polling error favoured Trump and he still lost badly. The market has built in that the polls will be wrong and it will be in Trump's favour when the votes are counted again but that is absolutely not a guarantee the way the market thinks.

Trump was up to like around -1000 on some books before they stopped the counting in several important states simultaneously. With all due respect, this seems like revisionist history.

We're talking a couple thousand votes in a few counties under very unusual circumstance.

I am probably biases but I was a huge Clinton fan 2016 and I still think republican gave her a lot of bad rep(might change my mind if I read books on Clintons). I took Biden 2020 and first thing I did was got a book on his personal story. Unlike a lot of republican I don't think he is corrupted, he just way past his prime and due to his "good" person personality he makes a lot of awful decision as president ex unprepared withdraw from Afgan(his son died from cancer that probably related to his time in the army). As a poker player it seem to me like democrats party are very bad at understand variance/bad beats in life and what they do is raise rake, change the rule aka taxes/regulation to make up for things that just part of life variance.

Why do I say all this? Just to let people know that there are a % of Democrats that definitely swinging to the other side when they see stupid things in their party. I am betting big on Trump this time and it sort of personal I guess but I am sick and tired of the far left taking over the party.

This is my counter party ��
I’ve got 100k on KH winning PV. 58c entry will ride it out to 100c or bustoville. GL team maga

This matches Henry Olsen's post today, and I agree with it. HOWEVER I feel like the most volatile states are Michigan and North Carolina, and I feel like either or both could flip like crazy. Michigan because of Gaza (Similar effect to what safe Labour seats did in the UK), and North Carolina because of Mark Robinson.

So, the new Iowa poll showing Harris ahead seems to be totally ignored by everyone here.
Here's what I think, for what it's worth.
I think its a toss up but whoever wins Pennsylvania wins.
I think the majority of people here bet more according to their political leanings and less on sports betting expertise.
The betting markets also are influenced more by bias rather than expertise and thus should be ignored.

Anyway. Good luck.

The betting markets are just following the polls. People used to have this idea that the markets would be smarter than the public, but no, they're just the public.

Ok. That makes sense.
I just heard somewhere, I think from Anthony Scaramucci on his podcast, the rest is us politics, but not sure anymore, that polymarket is not available to us, ; I only do predictit; so it shouldn't be taken as the actual momentum. Scarammucci is supporting Harris, for what it's wort.

Whatever drives the betting markets, this is still a major factor.

Not that I'm trying to convince anyone either way.
Just a trend that I observed from last election, that somehow just doesn't seem to change.

EZ PZ

EZ PZ

that hour long taleb video (with a lot of academic finance jargon that could've been boiled down to 5sec "everything is 50/50") seems prescient now

haven't seen a satisfactory explanation as to why trump won't outperform polls by similar margins as last 2, though, so consider him 65/35 fave with a decent shot at popular vote

Well in theory, if you somehow had perfect knowledge of the fair probabilities of an event and an unlimited bankroll, then your ROI should trend toward ~1% as your goal is to maximize earnings and not ROI. Thus you would keep betting until the odds are fair. Just something to think about for those who criticize Domer's ROI.

You do realise that most Democrats postal voted due to Covid and Trump specifically telling Republicans not to postal vote hence the postal vote, which is counted late, skewed heavily Democratic right

I did not take you for an election conspiracy theorist

Like this cycle Trump told a lot of his voters to vote early in person so the Republican in person early vote is up, which means their election day numbers will be down slightly due to some of that vote being already done by his supporters who voted early this time like he said

@smartdfs the answer to that is 'pollsters have literally adjusted their methodology to try and accurately capture the electorate after the last miss' so it isn't guaranteed.

Also it's a sample size of 2, that isn't enormously statistically significant. Also Roe being overturned may lead to some women who would normally vote Republican and did the last two cycles may be voting for Harris and just not telling their husbands because banning abortion is unpopular.

I'm not saying there definitely won't be a polling error in Trump's favour, i'm saying the market pricing it is as guaranteed is a mistake.

Also early signs seem to point towards high turnout which is generally good for Democrats, if turnout is 2020 type levels or higher Harris will win 90%+, if they're 2016 type levels Trump will win 90%+ etc, I think Harris needs turnout to be within something like 1.5-2% or so of 2020's turnout for her to be a favourite.

I just took Harris PV/Trump EC +350. Could not believe I found this.

What is PV? I am assuming Pennsylvania which is PA in USPS abbreviation. It's a bit confusing. I would hedge out rn and take the money you still can. Early returns aren't looking great.

Best of Luck (BOL)