2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
I am praying that whoever wins, it's not a repeat of 2020 where Trump "wins" on election night followed by a loss the following morning. I think that would be really, really bad.
Unless it's a landslide, either way, which is possible, I don't think we're going to know the winner for a few days/weeks.
I am praying that whoever wins, it's not a repeat of 2020 where Trump "wins" on election night followed by a loss the following morning. I think that would be really, really bad.
That would be a low probability event. We already expect election day voters to skew pro Trump and mail votes to skew pro Harris, in swing states. Early voters might surprise though in some of those states.
Anyway for those swing states that start to process mail votes at the end of election day, pro Harris data will come late
Unless it's a landslide, either way, which is possible, I don't think we're going to know the winner for a few days/weeks.
[quote=Luciom]That would be a low probability event. We already expect election day voters to skew pro Trump and mail votes to skew pro Harris, in swing states. Early voters might surprise though in some of those states.
Anyway for those swing states that start to process mail votes at the end of election day, pro Harris data will come late[/quote]
It's kind of been keeping me up at night, but based on the recent rhetoric I'm seeing I think a "switch" mid-flight again is almost certainly going to lead to civil unrest. I'm really hoping that doesn't happen.
Nobrains checking in.
My prediction is that Trump wins. My hypothesis is that many here are saying it’s a coinflip but this forum seems to lean heavily liberal. Therefore you think Trumps going to win but just don’t want to admit it.
Drill baby drill
I am praying that whoever wins, it's not a repeat of 2020 where Trump "wins" on election night followed by a loss the following morning. I think that would be really, really bad.
Agreed. It was a really stupid move to claim victory that night then and it would be a really stupid move to do it this time, too.
oh no! not listening to the electorate! this makes me angry for some reason!
what did Trump say about abortion again? that the woman should be punished?
The guy you're talking to is a single issue voter and that's his single issue. His friend in the sky told him to vote Trump because, you know, morals and stuff.
oh no! not listening to the electorate! this makes me angry for some reason!
what did Trump say about abortion again? that the woman should be punished?
the abortion issue is an unfortunate hill the church people choose to stand on. i just did a quick google, and seems he said if abortion becomes illegal, people who break that law should be punished.
i think that's pretty standard for breaking the law.
hey guys in case anyone was still wondering, el0n's lawyers said in court there is no prize and there was not lottery. the "winners" were picked specifically on the basis of whether their stories fit the propaganda being pushed
I obviously don't see eyes to eye with TookashotatChan on much of anything, but I didn't interpret him to be saying that Trump actually won the election. He was just making the comment sense point that he wasn't rooting for the situation where Trump has more votes in pivotal states when everyone goes to bed, and less votes by the time everyone wakes up.
For a variety of reasons, I also hope that doesn't happen.
hey guys in case anyone was still wondering, el0n's lawyers said in court there is no prize and there was not lottery. the "winners" were picked specifically on the basis of whether their stories fit the propaganda being pushed
They're the same lawyers that said tried to move the case from PA State to Federal court, arguing that it wasn't the commonwealth of PA suing Musk but instead Larry Krasner personally suing, ie the District Attorney who filed the case on behalf of PA. It was a ridiculous assertion that was immediately thrown out. They also argued that it wasn't a lottery violation as the DA claimed but a Federal election law violation claim, also ridiculous, and also thrown out.
It was more to do with the seeming insurmountable Trump lead at 2am on election night, and then waking up and seeing Joe Biden up by a sliver in all swing states.
No it wasn't. There was nothing that even appeared slightly insurmountable about that lead. In fact, the whole country had been warned for months that was likely to happen.
It was more to do with the seeming insurmountable Trump lead at 2am on election night, and then waking up and seeing Joe Biden up by a sliver in all swing states.
This was warned about at least two months before the 2020 election.
USA Today: Some Democrats warn Trump may use 'red mirage' to prematurely declare victory while absentee ballots are being counted
In battleground states that will decide the presidential race Nov. 3, Democrats have embraced a turnout strategy tailored for the COVID-19 pandemic: urging supporters to request mail ballots and return them right away.
But before mail voting kicks off Friday in North Carolina, some party operatives warned that a heavy reliance on mail ballots could carry risks and encouraged people who are healthy to consider voting in person.
Polling shows Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a decisive mail-voting advantage: The former vice president's supporters are twice as likely to vote by mail than those of President Donald Trump. Democrats worry that misleading signals could emerge on election night if Trump builds an initial lead with in-person votes even as he lags Biden on mail ballots, which take longer to count.
They fear Trump, who claims mail voting is rife with fraud, might try to cast doubt on the validity of uncounted mail ballots, setting the stage for chaos and lengthy legal battles in the aftermath of the election.
In a report released Tuesday, Hawkfish, a Democratic-aligned data and technology firm founded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, warned of a "red mirage" on election night in which Trump will appear ahead even if he's not. Only as more mail-in ballots are reflected in the count, the group said, "will this red mirage dissipate, and Biden’s lead materialize."
“We can anticipate that the president and at least Fox News likely, but many others, are going to declare victory at that point,” said Ellen Konar, the group's vice president of voter research. “They're not going to say, ‘Oh, let's hold off. We don't have all the ballots in.’ ”
We can tell Harris a terrible candidate just by looking at how democrat candidates for congress (or governor) do in polls.
Democrat senate candidates are all polling better (or a lot better) than Harris in purple or red areas.
That said they had to pick her anyway for campaign funds and structure, no time to pick someone else, because they made the insane mistake of not dropping Biden far sooner.
She might be bad candidate for those swing states but probably better for the country while any candidate that could poll well could be bad for the country aka trump is an example …
Maybe it isn’t the candidate that so bad but the terrain she has to deal with -> bad electoral system .
Trump never won the popular vote and never will while he wants to « rule » without compromises ….not realizing his there because a flawed system not because he got the majority .
