2024 ELECTION THREAD

a public bank with no check guarantees until it completely clears, no interest on savings, and no types of services like ODP or DCOS, sure. anything where they can get any type of credit or use it for any type of fraud or money laundering is not any type of right.

Also yelling and trying to start fights while her head is down there

I stopped placing bets in 2012.

This goes back a long ways, some really awful history, but even today - many poorer areas people have less access (or need) for state-issued IDs, where that's much less likely the case in more prosperous areas.

It's easy to overlook if say you've had a driver's license since you were 17 and always had a car, that ID is a necessity already, but there are areas where that's not the norm because they don't drive.

So these folks COULD go spend $22 and jump through a couple hoops to get a state-issued non-driver ID, but if they're very low income and don't have a compelling reason to then that effectively makes voting more difficult for them. You can guess which demographics might be disproportionately affected by voter ID requirements.

For my part I'd be fine with an ID requirement, but fix the rest first.

FYI I have that dunce cap on my ignore list, too. Not sure why I don't have you there at the moment, but the night is young. Actually, you occasionally show some redeeming qualities, so I'm more reluctant. Not so much with those others. I gave them both second chances and regretted them nearly instantly.

Is it a bet?

You drive a car. That's a bet.

Everything you do is a bet.

When you have that much information on something and the market is obviously mispriced.

I originally thought this was points for Kamala but ultimately this exit polling reveals nothing

Bruh, you should give motivational speeches at GA meetings.

Yes, it's a bet. Are you in denial about the bets you place?

Clearly not a gambling forum. People on here that don't even put money down on certainties with a 1.5x return in 24h

i think it is

democracy seems good for her, and abortion. immigration and economy slight losses probably

I take a pretty big gamble every time I click "show post" under your name.

Lol don't do it to yourself. Don't read anything into exit polls

What certainty are you referring to?

Whats funny is that whenwe put emotion in the past

the economy since covid has been way more turbulent than it was in 2012 and 2016. I'm shocked Economy isnt higher on the list and its baffling Trump didnt try to hammer it home more

I brought it up 3x now in the last week but Harris at 34cents was robbery, whoever bag loaded into that is almost labeled as an investment, thats how good numbers wise it was

I'm listening tell me too

MASSIVE CHEATING IN PHILADELPHIA!!!!!

You do it to yourself, you do
And that's what really hurts
Is you do it to yourself
Just you, you and no one else
You do it to yourself

Election Day. This is my analysis of the last 3 weeks and 538.com and Nate Silver (NS) current status. My analysis only includes the latest Likely Voter (LV) poll for all pollsters. I also count a Multi-Candidate (MC) poll over a Heads Up (HU) poll by any pollster on the same date. Because of the extremely right leaning polls by Rebublican paid pollsters I do a correction to the left for all states but GA (where I do a correction to the right). For some reason in GA the Red pollsters are actually slightly to the left of everyone else...

So here we go for 2024 in the swing states. 538 and NS posted their last data at 12:30am this morning:

AZ: I have Kamala trailing by 1.7% (3.3% Un) 538 is at -2.1% and NS is at -2.4% (with only 1.8% Un). 5 of 25 polls are by Rep paid pollsters all with Trump winning. There are 3 pollsters that have Kamala winning (not by much) and 2 that have it as a tie.

GA: I have Kamala trailing by 1.2% (3.1% Un), 538 is at -0.7% and NS is at -1%. 5 of 22 polls are by Rep paid pollsters (we have 1 tie and 1 with Kamala winning by close to 1%). Kamala has gained 1.5% since 10/21 so momentum has shifted radically. Recently published polls shifted Kamala +0.5% since what I reported 2 days ago. And 538 has moved 0.5% towards Kamala since yesterday. But the weird thing is that outside of Republican pollsters there is just one pollster that has Kamala winning (by 1%) and 2 that have it tied...

MI: I have Kamala up by 2.3% (3.9% Un), 538 is at 1% and NS is at 1.2%. I would have been at 2% without adjustments. 4 of 30 polls are by Rep paid pollsters (now 3 ties and Atlas Intel at -2%). There was a Kamala shift after 10/21 but recently its back down to where it was before. Recently published polls shifted Kamala +0.5% since what I reported 2 days ago (like in GA)... Ouside of the republican pollsters nobody has Trump winning but there are 4 ties (including NY Times).

NC: I have Kamala trailing by 0.9% (2.7% Un), 538 is at -0.8% and NS is at -1.%. I would have been at -1.2% without adjustments. 4 of 19 polls are by Rep paid pollsters (all with Trump ahead by >=2%). Only NYT and CNN have Kamala ahead with 3 other ties. Kamala has lost some ground since 10/21 with momentum looking like it is going against her.

NV: I have Kamala up by 0.04% so basically a tie (3.8% Un), 538 is at -0.2% and NS is at -0.6%. I would have been at -0.2% without adjustments. 4 of 16 polls are by Rep paid pollsters (2 ties and the 2 others have Trump winning now only by 3%). Other pollsters: 6 have Kamala leading and 4 have Trump leading with 2 ties. Its about the same as 10/21 with now only one pollster thinking Trump will win big by 6% and one with Kamala winning by 4%.

PA: I have Kamala up by 0.5% (3% Un), 538 has Kamala up by 0.2% and NS has Trump up by 0.2%. I have Kamala ahead by 0.2% without adjustments. 7 of 33 polls are by Rep paid pollsters (Trump up in 5 between 1% and 2%, with 1 tie and 1 Kamala up by 2%). Other pollsters: 6 have Trump winning (5 by 1% and 1 by 5%), 7 ties, and 13 between 1% and 3% Kamala leads. Kamala has dropped about 0.5% since 10/21 but has gone up a little the last few days. Looks to me like it will be very very close. This is unlike 2020 because a few people will get this right or everyone will be wrong if the winner is by more than 3%. If it is close to a tie then almost everyone will have gotten very close.

WI: I have Kamala up by 1.5% (3.4% Un), 538 is at 1% and NS is at 1%. I would have been at 1.1% without adjustments. 6 of 26 polls are by Rep paid pollsters (4 Trump up by 1%, 2 Kamala by 1%) Other pollsters: 2 have Trump up <=1%, 6 ties, and 13 have Kamala up between 1% and 6%. I have Kamala gaining about 1% since 10/21 (very recent polls have favored Kamala) so she has momentum. This is really not like PA in 2020 because of the 6 ties. It could be very close knowing WI. But in the past when the Republican pollsters have predicted a Trump win by 1% he hasn't won.

This is what I am seeing:
1) In the last few days I have seen movement by my poll analysis, 538, and NS towards Kamala in every state. This could mean undecideds are shifting differently than in 2016 & 2020. Part of it could be the way young people are just now (in the last couple of weeks) hearing Trump's interview for the first time where he talks about being able to sexually assault women.
2) If Kamala loses PA she will have to win NC and NV. And MI and WI... I do think PA will be very close. Could go either way. But my heart is saying Kamala will win. And we won't know until very very late at night.
3) My gut says Kamala will lose AZ though not GA anymore. There has been so much gain for Kamala in the last 2 days that anything could happen in GA. Again.
4) Joe Rogan came out for Trump very recently. He is the most watched Podcaster in the country. No idea what it will mean. He has had many ant-vaxxers on his show. It could have the immediate RFK effect. But then RFK has gone absolutely bonkers so maybe not.
5) WI could be a bell ringer. If the election goes Kamala's way early (as it might) then PA will be the final straw. If it goes for Trump early (like with Hillary in 2016) it will be all over for Kamala.
6) NC is still out there. 538 and NS have diminished Trump's lead a little in the last few days. And the Governors race and the hurricane could cost Trump some votes. I thought it was going to go for Kamala but I think its now more of a long shot.
7) NV is literally a toss up too. Not that it will matter much.

Its hard to not worry right now but if Kamala loses I would prefer not to feel the pain for 4 years and 1 day. Just pain for 4 years. So I'm going to be optimistic for Kamala.

So I assume Senate is Republican majority but how is house expecteded to go? 55/45 in favor of DEM I assume?

I locked in 25% betting Kamala to win popular and election a week ago or so

sure overdraft and credit aren't a guaranteed right.

I am talking about access to the payment system

what were odds for harris popular? its aslam dunk harris wins popular so what were the odds across hebaord? it culdnt have been that good

Not important, but Kamala Harris doesn't appear to have aged in the last ten years. No question that she has good makeup people but that's kind of impressive.

My wife is a little younger than her and well my avatar sums it up