2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
you are claiming over and over and over that Harris odds of winning are extremely high.
you are offered a bet that would multiply your investment by 2.5 if yoi bet on Harris to win, so a bet that gives you a ton of free expected value if you actually believe Harris chances are much higher than 40%.
by refusing to take that bet with a sizeable amount of your net worth you are proving through revealed preferences that you actually don't believe Harris chances are as high as you claim.
or that you are so exceptionally risk averse as to be a 5-6 sigma kind of person in that regard which is weird anyway
you are claiming over and over and over that Harris odds of winning are extremely high.
you are offered a bet that would multiply your investment by 2.5 if yoi bet on Harris to win, so a bet that gives you a ton of free expected value if you actually believe Harris chances are much higher than 40%.
by refusing to take that bet with a sizeable amount of your net worth you are proving through revealed preferences that you actually don't believe Harris chances are as high as you claim.
or that you are
Or you could just wait for Trump to lose and lay action on him, like last time. All the MAGA sharps should come flocking in again.
Not important, but Kamala Harris doesn't appear to have aged in the last ten years. No question that she has good makeup people but that's kind of impressive.
My wife is a little younger than her and well my avatar sums it up
The one singular picture ive seen of her sister had her looking like a fox
Or you could just wait for Trump to lose and lay action on him, like last time. All the MAGA sharps should come flocking in again.
why not both of you think there is EV on both?
polymarkets resolves if fox abc and AP call it for someone iirc.
after that you get the 3-4-5-6% or whatever freerooll thx to the "MAGA experts"
Or you could just wait for Trump to lose and lay action on him, like last time. All the MAGA sharps should come flocking in again.
lol Luciom. I stopped placing bets in 2012. Don't know why that's so hard to understand.
I don't think Harris winning is a certainty, ftr. Even if I did, I wouldn't bet on it. It's incredible how much I couldn't care less about making money during this phase of my life compared to earlier.
and ro GD fl at "sigma"
also thanks for the strategic quote, as usual d2 lol
The New York Times' popular election "Needle" may not be available on Election Night, as the publication's technology guild remains on strike.
what. **** off. ban strikes
Trump knows he's losing, ftr.
This is how you know he knows:
harris at 38cents on poly seems really ****ing good
might be some late value to pickup
Saw harlbob make a weird but interesting tweet
If harris loses where is she a year from now?
theres just no way she is a fav for the 2028 dem nom
America please fix your ****
/
MILWAUKEE — Election officials at the Baird Center, where the city’s early voting and mail-in ballots are being counted, have to pause and restart the tabulating process.
At issue: Tabulation machines weren’t sealed properly "so they are being reset,” and the 30,000 ballots that have already gone through the 13 tabulating machines will be rerun through them, said Jeff Fleming, spokesperson for Milwaukee City Hall.
The tabulation hiccup means returns for the city of Milwaukee will be delayed — though Fleming said they don’t know by how much. About 106,000 ballots will be processed through the central count center at the Baird Center before they are added to Milwaukee’s overall count.
America please fix your ****
/
MILWAUKEE — Election officials at the Baird Center, where the city’s early voting and mail-in ballots are being counted, have to pause and restart the tabulating process.
At issue: Tabulation machines weren’t sealed properly "so they are being reset,” and the 30,000 ballots that have already gone through the 13 tabulating machines will be rerun through them, said Jeff Fleming, spokesperson for Milwaukee City Hall.
The tabulation hiccup means returns for the city of Mil
Probably Inso0's fault somehow. Let's lynch him.
unless newsome wants to run
it is kind of wonky to think about that the Dem nominee being as young as she is isnt going to be a fav for 2028 in the chance she loses tonight. I actually wouldnt be surprised if she isnt in the top 2 heding into 2028
while some ****ing way I wouldnt be surpsied trump being afav in 2028 somehow, someway..
unless newsome wants to run
it is kind of wonky to think about that the Dem nominee being as young as she is isnt going to be a fav for 2028 in the chance she loses tonight. I actually wouldnt be surprised if she isnt in the top 2 heding into 2028
while some ****ing way I wouldnt be surpsied trump being afav in 2028 somehow, someway..
I think Buttigieg would be the favorite over Newsome. I think Harris wouldn't be the nominee this time if Buttigieg had decided to throw his hat in, but he was correct not to in order to preserve unity for the party.
I'm not sure. If Kamala loses, I think the Dems will try to be less woke and more centrist, and sadly I'm not sure if 2028 America will be ready for a gay President.
If Vivek is the GOP candidate (I know it will be Trump because dictatorship, but for the sake of discussion, let's pretend it's Vivek) a lot of Americans will unnecessarily put themselves in a bind deciding between a gay dude and brown dude.
I hope it's Pete vs Vivek.
