2024 ELECTION THREAD

The true state of polarization on display

Al Gore might have actually won versus G.W. Bush, yet still the DEMs were not motivated to give Gore a second chance.

See I think that's a totally reasonable take, and I agree it's tough to imagine a good portion of the country voting for an openly gay candidate, even if he has a badass like Pete. Perhaps I'm an idealist.

Did he o throguh primary? if he did I would have assumed he was the fav

No he was asked to step aside for the next contenders. But times are different and I see Harris running in the next primaries if she loses. I agree with you that Newsom has to be a huge favorite next time if Harris loses tonight.

Should welfare dependent net negative drains like Alabama and West Virginia get votes in the electoral college? Should definitely be up for discussion. Give the welfares that live there a vote, but not one that actually decides who productive states will have as POTUS.

Give them the Guam treatment?

I like buttigieg a lot (everything I don't like about him, I know he did just because it was mandated to be a leftist), but I thi k his actual baggage isn't being homosexual like at all, it's having a past in finance and being labeled as an elitist and so on.

btw OFC if Trump wins now, the 2028 gop candidate is Vance.

if you want to remove the right to vote from net tax takers I am all hears, not sure what states have to do with it though.

by thethethe k

The banner "Trump will fix it", not a good look when you have a bunch of photos with Jeffrey Epstein. His PR team clearly don't know the UK too well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim%27ll_Fix_It

en

Jim'll Fix It - Wikipedia

- huge show hosted by prolific paedophile and possible necrophiliac, Jimmy Saville.

there are probably like 5 people in the entire united states who know who jimmy saville is/was

You're both wrong. The parties are private institutions that exist, more or less, to auction off policy and enrich donors and members.

They can do that better if they win elections, but the money will flow either way. They will never really listen to voters no matter how they vote, because then the money is shut off.

It's a 2 party system and both parties will fight to make sure no alternatives exist. So it makes no sense for either to let us have much say.

For example, the Dems are better off as a losing party that favors ever increasing military spending than as a winning party that resists the MIC. That's why they changed nothing after Hillary lost and won't change if Harris loses.

For Republicans you could use something like debt/waste. They run on fiscal responsibility, but fund tax cuts at the top with debt. They are better off losing like that, than winning on actual fiscal responsibility.

Ultimately, you lose some and win some, but with the status quo, both get very rich over time.

If Harris loses, she'll still be showered with money. If you're a representative who plays ball and you lose, you get some cushy job as a lobbyist or in an industry where you did favors. Plus they all get to do insider trading and all that stuff.

It's a multi-billion dollar industry, or multi trillion depending on how you look at it. They care about your policy preferences like Disney cares about art or McDonald's cares about nutrition. It is a peripheral issue.

Thats insane Bidens so unfavorable compared to harris, what has biden done differnetly thats massive that harris would have done?

Aside fom her sayig she would be tougher on immigration, im not sure why Biden gets such unfavorable ratings comparingly

This is the only day of year I check the Fox News website as their heads up display of results at bottom of page is probably the best. That is except for when it is over and the DEM has 270+ votes and they won't declare that person the winner.

Well the exit poll concern with the threat to democracy must be a good sign. Of course that's presuming that a healthy contingent of the Trumpers aren't claiming such a threat, which on second thought, is probably mixed in with their "Big Steal" convenient delusion.

Biden is functionally demented and didn't step out of the presidency.

Harris isn't demented.

for some people having full cognitive functions as a president is relevant.

Seem to be pretty significant arbitrage opportunities on the different sites. Am I missing something? Vig too high?

trump voters can go with democracy both for the election result denialism claims, and for the "they'll give the vote to illegals and we won't have a democracy anymore" claims

which sites are you comparing? transaction costs are minimal in some sites.

but predicitit specifically has a very low cap on bet size total you can make.

fyp

Ah was looking predictit and poly, but that makes sense if there is a low limit.

I believe this would have been a lock if Biden had stepped aside and had Harris take the presidency.

That extra name recognition and gravitas probably would have been enough to take her over the edge.

predicitit also "taxes" winnings a lot (5%) , on top of th odds and bid/ask spread you see

It's a little silly to assume that people don't believe in something unless they bet on it. I think Kamala should be .50 rather than .40 on Polymarket. But I didn't feel like going to the trouble of figuring out how to get $10K on Polymarket to push a small edge and eat a ton of variance in order to chase an EV of a few thousand dollars at best. And I certainly didn't feel like going to trouble of figuring out how to get several hundred thousand dollars on the site from the U.S.

if she used that to pass one or two well crafted constitutional EO targeting key constituencies yes