2024 ELECTION THREAD

2024 ELECTION THREAD

The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?

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14 July 2022 at 02:28 PM
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5
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or when you'll get paid


by Luciom k

predicitit also "taxes" winnings a lot (5%) , on top of th odds and bid/ask spread you see

Fees on PredictIt are brutal.


by Rococo k

It's a little silly to assume that people don't believe in something unless they bet on it. .

it isn't among well over median IQ men in a gambling forum when the discrepancy between offered odds and your claims are MASSIVE.

gorgo claimed Harris was over 80% to win recently


by checkraisdraw k

I believe this would have been a lock if Biden had stepped aside and had Harris take the presidency.

That extra name recognition and gravitas probably would have been enough to take her over the edge.

I predicted Biden would do this if he won a second term half way plus one day through his term so that Harris would still be able to run for two of her own terms. But that Biden debate ouch.


by Luciom k

it isn't among well over median IQ men in a gambling forum when the discrepancy between offered odds and your claims are MASSIVE.

gorgo claimed Harris was over 80% to win recently

what if we’re just too lazy to bet or have a moral stance against certain types of prediction betting a la gorgo


by Gonzirra k

fyp

if Trump wins, family is going to own the actual party. Head of RNC, treasurer and stuff


by the pleasure k

That is voter supression what you say but I see a lot of voter id = racism stuff as well as unfair etc by the vocal minority

It definitely makes it tough if you're in college in a different state from your parents and your ID address has to match your registration address. You have a perfect valid ID to drive, fly pretty much do anything but vote.


by checkraisdraw k

what if we’re just too lazy to bet or have a moral stance against certain types of prediction betting a la gorgo

ex post coping to cover a lack of actual belief


by Gorgonian k

Trump knows he's losing, ftr.

This is how you know he knows:

Eh, he was going to go do this no matter what. This was hard wired into the playbook.


by checkraisdraw k

what if we’re just too lazy to bet or have a moral stance against certain types of prediction betting a la gorgo

I do not have a moral stance against any types of betting. I just chose to stop doing it for personal reasons (mental health) in 2012. My life improved drastically when I made that decision, and I'm not changing it.


by Rococo k

Eh, he was going to go do this no matter what. This was hard wired into the playbook.

Yeah he doesn't know anything it's just a defensive mechanism built into him on a grand, epic scale, parlayed further into a political strategy.


by Rococo k

Eh, he was going to go do this no matter what. This was hard wired into the playbook.

Trump not screaming about fraud was 0%


Georgia closing soon. nom nom.


Yeah Trump yelling CHEATING is sure as the sunrise, doesn't suggest anything. PA's response was pretty much GFY


by the pleasure k

Thats insane Bidens so unfavorable compared to harris, what has biden done differnetly thats massive that harris would have done?

Aside fom her sayig she would be tougher on immigration, im not sure why Biden gets such unfavorable ratings comparingly

you're a sports fan.. you should know the most popular person in town is always the backup quarterback that's not in the game.


by FellaGaga-52 k

Yeah he doesn't know anything it's just a defensive mechanism built into him on a grand, epic scale, parlayed further into a political strategy.

Rococo convinced me that trump covers "both bases" with this.

If he wins, he can claim is actual margin was bigger.

If he loses, we know the script


harris at 45cents to me was stilll good value, very good imo.


Blue Georgia
@BlueATLGeorgia
·
2h
Three polling locations in major blue areas of Fulton, Cobb, and Gwinnett counties are going to stay open later because of bomb threats originating from Russia.

MAGA clowns were celebrating the disruption until they found out folks will now be able to vote even later. #gapol


Did Trump and Georgia's governor make up? Maybe Trump can call him again to find some votes and the gov will help this time.


by Luciom k

Biden is functionally demented and didn't step out of the presidency.

Harris isn't demented.

for some people having full cognitive functions as a president is relevant.

I dont think he was demented.

the sme people saying harris is a capable leader were the same that were saying amonth before debate biden was running meetings, cartwheels behind closed doors, alert and attentive at meetings.

Those same people cant be wrong about the later and right about the former can they?


Hamilton Indiana went +7 for trump in 2020, +19 for trump in 2016 is curently +1.8 for Harris with ~2/3rds of the vote in.

"should" be good for harris nationally


by Slighted k

you're a sports fan.. you should know the most popular person in town is always the backup quarterback that's not in the game.

To me Biden is still capable of doing the job for 4 more years if he wanted to

and they are saying theyd rather have the backup more than the starter which makes 0 sense


by the pleasure k

I dont think he was demented.

the sme people saying harris is a capable leader were the same that were saying amonth before debate biden was running meetings, cartwheels behind closed doors, alert and attentive at meetings.

Those same people cant be wrong about the later and right about the former can they?

The same people lied about Biden conditions in late spring, and the public didn't punish them for that, they blamed Biden, that's why you see those approval rates.


by Luciom k

it isn't among well over median IQ men in a gambling forum when the discrepancy between offered odds and your claims are MASSIVE.

gorgo claimed Harris was over 80% to win recently

That doesn't mean Gorgo is OBLIGATED to bet on it


by natediggity k

That doesn't mean Gorgo is OBLIGATED to bet on it

No there is no obligation.

That means though that we have to assume , through his actual revealed preferences, he doesn't think Harris odds are so high.

Actions > words

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