2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
No, I didn't. I said they were on the list of states with restrictive abortion bans where anything could happen. That was a separate statement. But no one is obligated to take me seriously.
And actions > words is meaningful only when you consider all relevant actions. Such as the ZERO betting actions I've placed in the last 12 years.
Well, it's 19:3 right now, so Trump should be coming out and making a victory speech soon.
harris IS supposed to win VA, right now trump is 2k ahead with 3% reporting
North Carolina polls close on the half hour. If Harris wins Georgia and North Carolina, then a lot of Trump's paths to victory are lost. It goes from a 50/50 race to like Harris 70/30...at least Harris 60/40.
I'm sure you know what I meant better than I do. How about this: if I thought it then, why wouldn't I say I did now? I'm not backing off of anything else I've said, why would I change my tune on that?
Easy answer: you are misreading what I said.
This sort of thing is meaningless unless you compare it to expectations for the districts that have reported. Trump being up 2k in Virginia with 3% reporting could be amazing news for Trump, amazing news for Kamala, or pretty much what people expected. It all depends on which districts have reported.
I'm sure you know what I meant better than I do. How about this: if I thought it then, why wouldn't I say I did now? I'm not backing off of anything else I've said, why would I change my tune on that?
Easy answer: you are misreading what I said.
Gorgo:
"Any state with restrictive abortion bans is vulnerable to "unexpectedly" turn blue tomorrow. Keep eyes on Montana, Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, in addition to the obvious ones like Florida and Texas. I'd be surprised if at least one of those isn't blue.
More and more people are saying today what I've been saying for weeks: women and minority turnout is being underestimated and will be the difference. Ann Selzer and the early voting data is waking people up.
I don't think it's going to be close."
its insane the republicans are so so ****ing dumb that they could see what happened in 2022, they legit wanted to die on that abortion topic AGAIN
Trump legit not just saying **** it abortion for all is what will do him in this election. Insane hill to die on and the numbers shown what to do and not to do in 2022
Here's exactly what I said:
"Keep eyes on Montana, Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, in addition to the obvious ones like Florida and Texas. I'd be surprised if at least one of those isn't blue."
That doesn't mean I think Montana could turn blue. That means it's on the list of states with restrictive abortion bans, and I would be surprised if at least one state on that list isn't blue.
It's not that complicated.
It was more to do with the seeming insurmountable Trump lead at 2am on election night, and then waking up and seeing Joe Biden up by a sliver in all swing states.
only idiots viewed that as an insurmountable lead - the late surge biden would get from mail in ballots which are counted later was long known and expected - it was heavily discussed both before and during the election
if you thought it was over before a deciding amount of ballots were counted then that is on you - but even then, i don't think you and others are genuinely that stupid - more of a reality distortion thing stemming from confirmation bias
North Carolina polls close on the half hour. If Harris wins Georgia and North Carolina, then a lot of Trump's paths to victory are lost. It goes from a 50/50 race to like Harris 70/30...at least Harris 60/40.
I think the odds of Trump winning conditional to him losing NC are lower than 20%
Gorgo:
"Any state with restrictive abortion bans is vulnerable to "unexpectedly" turn blue tomorrow. Keep eyes on Montana, Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, in addition to the obvious ones like Florida and Texas. I'd be surprised if at least one of those isn't blue.
More and more people are saying today what I've been saying for weeks: women and minority turnout is being underestimated and will be the difference. Ann Selzer and the early voting data is waking people up.
I don't think it's going to be
Yep. As I just explained, pretty easy to see I made a list of some states with restrictive abortion bans and said I'd be surprised it at least ONE of those isn't blue.
Didn't say a word about Montana specifically, did I?
With 70% of Florida in, Trump is outperforming by about 2%
its insane the republicans are so so ****ing dumb that they could see what happened in 2022, they legit wanted to die on that abortion topic AGAIN
Trump legit not just saying **** it abortion for all is what will do him in this election. Insane hill to die on and the numbers shown what to do and not to do in 2022
They didn't, most of them didn't talk about abortion., only did when pressured, and some even flip flopped toward more reasonable compromises when pressed.
Dems did talk about abortion any chance they got because they knew it helped them
only idiots viewed that as an insurmountable lead - the late surge biden would get from mail in ballots which are counted later was long known and expected - it was heavily discussed both before and during the election
if you thought it was over before a deciding amount of ballots were counted then that is on you - but even then, i don't think you and others are genuinely that stupid - more of a reality distortion thing stemming from confirmation bias
"Half the country are idiots blah blah blah"
They didn't, most of them didn't talk about abortion., only did when pressured, and some even flip flopped toward more reasonable compromises when pressed.
Dems did talk about abortion any chance they got because they knew it helped them
Senate and house wise you are correct but if Trump would have backed off abortion more i think we see him tighten up that 30+ women vote instead of it being as lopsided as it is now in midwest
A Republican won Manchin's seat. I was assured by some here that WV voters hate Republican policies. I don't know what happened.
Yep. As I just explained, pretty easy to see I made a list of some states with restrictive abortion bans and said I'd be surprised it at least ONE of those isn't blue.
Didn't say a word about Montana specifically, did I?
OMG. In order for your statement to be true there has to be a possibility of Montana going blue.....otherwise you wouldn't have named that state.
Le sigh.
