2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Another example would be Trump threatening tariffs to europe if we don't increase defense spending, and we do by buying more american weapons.
Tariffs aren't put in place, we buy more american weapon, that's better for the american economy.
Another example would be Trump threatening tariffs to europe if we don't increase defense spending, and we do by buying more american weapons.
Tariffs aren't put in place, we buy more american weapon, that's better for the american economy.
A country can't strong-arm their way to prosperity.
Erm..... it seemed to work for the British Empire?
lol no it didn't. Without the transatlantic slave trade there would've been no cheap cotton from the US to fuel the IR's mills.
I'm sure we've had this before and you are as wrong now as you were then.
As for tariffs IF Trump uses that as a credible threat toward foreign countries to make them bend their knee to american interest, and so puts them into place then strongarms China and others into doing stuff that is good for american interests (as defined by republican priorities ofc), and then removes them, would you guys admit it was a genius strategy?
If it gets the uk and the EU back together and into a coherent political union then I'll give it some genius points
lol no it didn't. Without the transatlantic slave trade there would've been no cheap cotton from the US to fuel the IR's mills.
I'm sure we've had this before and you are as wrong now as you were then.
Even if that was true (and i disagree), the transatlantic slave trade doesn't require an empire to happen.
Use this in the following days to monitor inflation expectations from market data
Then we'll see what the opinion is about Trump/republicans and in aggregate their effect on inflation.
Just look at the 10 and 30 years bond today lol .
An amazing move in just couple hours …market are speaking !
Just look at the 10 and 30 years bond today lol .
An amazing move in just couple hours …market are speaking !
a steepening of the curve with sp500 increasing is a bullish signal for the economy, the market is speaking and is saying Trump winning is positive for the american economy.
Which is why you see all risk-on trades gain massively.
A rising 10y yield with decreasing sp500 would instead tell the story you think about
they lost bc of Gaza (and probably to a lesser extent Ukraine) as many predicted
As for tariffs IF Trump uses that as a credible threat toward foreign countries to make them bend their knee to american interest, and so puts them into place then strongarms China and others into doing stuff that is good for american interests (as defined by republican priorities ofc), and then removes them, would you guys admit it was a genius strategy?
Aren’t you a libertarian and clapping free trade and free market all along but because some anti free trade policies (tarriffs) comes from someone you like on the far right now it’s fine and not evil and it will work ?
Lol…
Aren’t you a libertarian and clapping free trade and free market all along but because some anti free trade policies (tarriffs) comes from someone you like on the far right now it’s fine and not evil and it will work ?
Lol…
I have been talking against tariffs for months, and i didn't change my mind.
I am simply outlining a possible path for Trump tariffs to be far less disastrous for the american economy than i think they would be.
I am still a person who would prefer tariffs not to exist legally, ie a complete constitutional ban to the whole concept of tariffs would be my preferred policy.
I also still think though that Trump tariffs are far less disastrous for the economy than democrat regulations and taxes.
Just checking in to say I was obviously wrong. I don't care nearly as much about me being wrong as I do about the country I recently became a citizen of being wrong. Again. Disappointed isn't the word for it. Disgusted is much more accurate.
For those that voted for Trump and especially those that defended and promoted that piece of absolute st, just now I think that you are the stupidest and most vile pieces of trash on the planet.
i have never seen anyone be so spectacularly wrong, lololololol.
and good job representing the "tolerant left."
They lost for 300+ reasons and we might never know exactly how much each reason impacted, maybe in time we'll have data to know something a bit better.
But it's disingenous to claim that democrats lost because of what you personally care about.
They lost for 300+ reasons and we might never know exactly how much each reason impacted, maybe in time we'll have data to know something a bit better.
But it's disingenous to claim that democrats lost because of what you personally care about.
Your right each individual voter has their own reasons . I’m speculating what some of the main issues could have been . I’m watching MSNBC and they were talking about the trans issue and Trumps add that Kamala cares about they/them and Trump cares about you .
Im just shocked Trump won the popular vote as well
Your right each individual voter has their own reasons . I’m speculating what some of the main issues could have been . I’m watching MSNBC and they were talking about the trans issue and Trumps add that Kamala cares about they/them and Trump cares about you .
Im just shocked Trump won the popular vote as well
I'd love for the reasons to be a rejection of radical leftism.
But from what i gather there are 2 main reasons for the overperformance of republicans (not just Trump, republicans in general):
1) minority voters didn't skew pro Harris as much as it's expected for them to do. The democratic party doesn't hold a complete control over them like in the past basically. The shift wasn't gigantic, but even a smallish shift among them matters a lot. Why? possibly because of the men-women gap. Democrats previously "owned" most minority groups. Now they still own minority women votes, while they lost a decent chunk of minority men.
2) High turnout doesn't help the democrats anymore, because low info / low propensity voters aren't necessarily democratic-leaning
I am ready to revisit when we have more data ofc.
Oh and then there is the absolutely, objectively false perception of the economy being terrible right now, shared by many, that might have been the reason independents voted trump more than expected.
time to drain the swamp
