2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
In my own private kingdom, those Project Lincoln, grifting-ass, Republican-ass, literally working for decades to elect RONALD REAGAN-ass types are first up against the wall. God, I hate those *******s.
But Biden didn't get into some horrific accident the day before the debates rendering him a mess.
Top Dems lied over and over and pretended Biden's brain wasn't long gone right up until the debates when he completely embarrassed himself. Now either they believed Biden was still sharp and were shocked at what they saw at the debates (fat chance) or they knew what was going to happened and that they could then force in Harris as the nominee because "there's no time!".
And the end result is what
Biden was completely fine at the after party of that very debate. I don't know what happened there. Doesn't matter though perception is reality. Yes he's old and has lost a step but I still don't think he was as bad as everyone said, meanwhile trump himself has clearly declined and nobody cares.
Hm i mean they can only pass 1 reconciliation (ok maybe technically up to 3) bill per year unless they nuke it.
They can't dismantle government agencies that got congress delegation and appropriation without it and so on. If they for example want to make the DoJ explicitly partisan in a clear way , removing all fake notions of "independence", they need to nuke the filibuster.
Ok Bannon on record saying "He (Trump) might be a good man, but we aren't", promising "Rough roman justice" retribution to a lot of people/institutions.
In my own private kingdom, those Project Lincoln, grifting-ass, Republican-ass, literally working for decades to elect RONALD REAGAN-ass types are first up against the wall. God, I hate those *******s.
the are indistinguishable from a long term Dem. like, they are the Dem party elite now.
Maybe some decent democrat centrist will realize the extent of the damage their party caused upon the american population, just by glancing at the massive explosion of suicide ideation among young women on social media following the results of the elections, which is 100% the fault of the hysterical, insane, incessant campaign of misinformation by democrats about the actual dangerousness of republicans.
Running campaigns on fear , grotesquely exaggerating the enemy and depicting him as the devil incarnate and worse than hitler has consequences.
Maybe some decent democrat centrist will realize the extent of the damage their party caused upon the american population, just by glancing at the massive explosion of suicide ideation among young women on social media following the results of the elections, which is 100% the fault of the hysterical, insane, incessant campaign of misinformation by democrats about the actual dangerousness of republicans.
Running campaigns on fear , grotesquely exaggerating the enemy and depicting him as the devil
What are these unrealistic, hysterical fears that democrats have been peddling?
I hope when Trump takes the oath, he puts his hand on a copy of Project 2025, says "This is the bible now" and just makes up his own words.
Biden was completely fine at the after party of that very debate. I don't know what happened there. Doesn't matter though perception is reality. Yes he's old and has lost a step but I still don't think he was as bad as everyone said, meanwhile trump himself has clearly declined and nobody cares.
Excuse me but that mf said "Former Trump, fortunately, is not seriously linjured", and, "politics should never be a little battlefella". OK, those are from his address after the fake-ass Trump assassination attempt and not the debate, but that's even worse, honestly, because he wasn't under the pressure of a debate.
I mean, you're right, he wasn't as bad as everyone said... he was worse.
Trump is addled too, but they LIKE that about him; it's entertaining and enrages the libs.
IMO the problem for Dems this election was clearly the top of the ticket.
Trump won or is leading in every swing state, yet Democratic Senate candidates won or are leading in 3 of 5 swing state races and in the two races where Republicans are ahead they are leading by less than Trump. Dems also won by a landslide in the NC gubernatorial race against a controversial candidate, but lost the Presidential race by over 3% against a controversial candidate.
They can't scapegoat 3rd parties this time around because Trump got over 50% of the vote in 5 of the 7 swing states. They can't chalk it up to Trump being an unbeatable campaigner because they already beat him once. If they want to win Presidential races they need to nominate better candidates who can clearly and charismatically articulate what they stand for. Kamala Harris didn't do this, and now the party and the country will pay the price.
complete federal abortion ban being a real possibility, to start.
And apocalyptic "climate porn" which was already causing extreme distress with double digit americans claiming mental health issues related to the fear of a climate apocalypse.
The results from two national probability samples of U.S. adults show that 16% report at least one feature of climate change psychological distress
IMO the problem for Dems this election was clearly the top of the ticket.
Trump won or is leading in every swing state, yet Democratic Senate candidates won or are leading in 3 of 5 swing state races and in the two races where Republicans are ahead they are leading by less than Trump. Dems also won by a landslide in the NC gubernatorial race against a controversial candidate, but lost the Presidential race by over 3% against a controversial candidate.
They can't scapegoat 3rd parties this time
Yes
IMO the problem for Dems this election was clearly the top of the ticket.
Trump won or is leading in every swing state, yet Democratic Senate candidates won or are leading in 3 of 5 swing state races and in the two races where Republicans are ahead they are leading by less than Trump. Dems also won by a landslide in the NC gubernatorial race against a controversial candidate, but lost the Presidential race by over 3% against a controversial candidate.
They can't scapegoat 3rd parties this time
Non Trump maga candidates are really bad is my take away from that. If you stripped out the candidates and looked at just fundamentals, republicans have the advantage. People want to say trump is an awful candidate, but for non educated whites he’s fine.
complete federal abortion ban being a real possibility, to start.
And apocalyptic "climate porn" which was already causing extreme distress with double digit americans claiming mental health issues related to the fear of a climate apocalypse.
The results from two national probability samples of U.S. adults show that 16% report at least one feature of climate change psychological distress
There is a scientific consensus on what you call "climate porn", you just don't like it.
As for restricting abortions, it's not like Republicans haven't been trying to do that for decades and haven't seen unprecedented success recently. Ok, there won't be a complete federal ban, but hard to argue that Republicans aren't trying to push all the restrictions on abortions that they can get away with.
Trump is returning to the White House. These are some of the things we can expect.
this time we need to take Trump both seriously and literally, the possibility of him
initiating a massive purge of the federal workforce and the process of mass deportations.
Stephen Miller, Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will likely begin trying
to implement their variously damaging and possibly unconstitutional ideas.
We can expect Trump will pardon the Jan. 6 rioters and
summarily fire the prosecutors who tried to hold him accountable.
Having been immunized by the Supreme Court, he may instruct the Department of Justice to go after
his political opponents. He will likely abandon Ukraine and begin the process of weakening our alliances
the American people (or enough of them) have returned this unfit man to power.
In the end, nothing mattered. Not the sexual abuse, the fraud, the lies
or the felonies. Not the bigotry of his campaign; not insults, not threats.
In the most graphic terms imaginable, the American people were warned of the danger.
His previously loyal vice president refused to endorse him; his top general called him a “total fascist”; some of his
closest aides and Cabinet members described in detail his erratic character and his indifference to the Constitution.
This is perhaps the hardest part about today:
realizing that our fellow Americans saw all of that; watched all of that;
listened to all of that, and still said, “Yes, that’s what we want.” That’s who we are.
Here is my post-mortem:
It wasn't any one thing. As usual, it was a bunch of things.
1) The Democratic brand clearly isn't resonating well enough with people on the economic margins. I don't know whether the people on the margins who have drifted away from the Democrats have any confidence that Trump will address their concerns. I suspect most do not, but at a minimum, their lack of confidence in Democrats on this issue made them more open to voting for Trump for other reasons.
2) I/P was an impossible issue for Democrats. I don't think it moved the needle in many states, but it almost certainly moved the needle in certain states and in certain Congressional races. I don't think there was pain-free stratgic path available to Democrats on this issue.
3) Some people will say that current administration policy on immigration was a political problem, but I think that swerving the car around on the issue was probably a more significant problem.
4) In presidential races, there seems to a penalty of few percentages points if you are a woman. I don't see any other way to plausibly interpret the results of the last three presidential elections. Sure, you can argue that HRC and Kamala weren't especially strong candidates, but neither was Biden. We can debate which voter demographic is most responsible for imposing that penalty, but I'm pretty sure it isn't college-educated women.
5) Picking Walz instead of Shapiro was irrelevant. Maybe Shapiro would have helped in PA, but he wouldn't have helped in Wisconsin or Michigan. Kamala would have lost either way.
6) Biden really screwed the Democratic Party by not withdrawing from the 2024 race until he was dragged out kicking and screaming by the media. Withdrawing at the time he did made Kamala a shoe-in for the nomination, but the party would have been better off if Biden had left enough time for a real process. Primaries are a bit of market test to determine which candidate and which framing of issues seems to have the most appeal to voters.
7) HRC made some some strategic blunders and had one huge gaffe. Kamala embraced a relatively low-risk campaign strategy (as Biden did), and like the Biden campaign, largely avoided obvious unforced errors.
8) At least 2/3 of voters simply don't care about things like blatant lying and transparent contempt for democratic norms. Overeducated Democrats wish that a higher percentage of voters cared about those things. I wish that a higher percentage of voters cared about those things. But I don't see any evidence that they do.
No there isn't, democrats peddle insane outliers , redicolous models based on RCP 8.5 and 4 sigma scenarios as what will certainly happen if you don't vote democrat.
The IPCC consensus is dramatically less apocalyptic than what democrats and democrat controlled media are spamming 24/7
Here is my post-mortem:
It wasn't any one thing. As usual, it was a bunch of things.
1) The Democratic brand clearly isn't resonating well enough with people on the economic margins. I don't know whether the people on the margins who have drifted away from the Democrats have any confidence that Trump will address their concerns. I suspect most do not, but at a minimum, their lack of confidence in Democrats on this issue made them more open to voting for Trump for other reasons.
2) I/P was a
Nice comments as usual. My counters/agreements
1) only partially true, given congressional democratic candidates performed better, sometimes a lot better, than Harris especially in many purple areas.
2) Agreed
3) one thing is clear, if Biden had pivoted far sooner on it, it would have cost less for democrats
4) Not enough data point yet to claim that
5) ex post yes because Harris lost by too much, but there are universes where with everything the same it's closer and in some of those she wins with Shapiro and loses with Walz (and in almost none she loses with Shapiro and wins with Walz). Mostly because of 2), as democrats paid the price of I/P anyway, Shapiro basically had no extra baggage while he could have delivered PA
6) Biden should have retired sooner yes. Claiming it's his personal fault and that alone is a big mistake though. Democrats could have used the 25th years ago if they wanted to. And they lied incessantly keeping Biden conditions hidden from the public with the help of democrat controlled media. And some people hated that.
7) agreed
8) Not necessarily, many might simply think that democrats also do lie 24/7 and that what they do with illegal immigration is a violation of the rule of law, of norms, and of the spirit and letter of the american constitution so great, it is worse than what Trump does and says.
Matt Walsh
@MattWalshBlog
Now that the election is over I think we can finally say that yeah actually Project 2025 is the agenda. Lol
3:11 PM · Nov 6, 2024
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518.5K
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It appears trump underperformed with whites and overperformed with blacks and even more so Hispanics. What kind of bizzaro world am I living in.
Here is my post-mortem:
It wasn't any one thing. As usual, it was a bunch of things.
1) The Democratic brand clearly isn't resonating well enough with people on the economic margins. I don't know whether the people on the margins who have drifted away from the Democrats have any confidence that Trump will address their concerns. I suspect most do not, but at a minimum, their lack of confidence in Democrats on this issue made them more open to voting for Trump for other reasons.
2) I/P was a
As the old expression goes, "it's the economy stupid" (not meaning you, but in general)
When people can barely afford to keep their head above water then nothing else matters.
When people are doing great then they can start to concern themselves with higher-order issues. It's Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.
Well that was a bit of a damp squid, was hoping for something more dramatic
Biden to declare himself ruler of the free world as an 'official act' and void the results ONE TIME
Spoiler
I know it's damp squib, the IT crowd reference will go over everyone's head in here 😃
