2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Here is my post-mortem:
It wasn't any one thing. As usual, it was a bunch of things.
1) The Democratic brand clearly isn't resonating well enough with people on the economic margins. I don't know whether the people on the margins who have drifted away from the Democrats have any confidence that Trump will address their concerns. I suspect most do not, but at a minimum, their lack of confidence in Democrats on this issue made them more open to voting for Trump for other reasons.
2) I/P was a
I think it's mostly just 8. And I think the reason they don't care is that they don't know he does it. For at least a sizable portion of them. I've been struck by the number of times people don't even know how egregious his lies were when confronted with them.
Well that and #6.
As the old expression goes, "it's the economy stupid" (not meaning you, but in general)
When people can barely afford to keep their head above water then nothing else matters.
When people are doing great then nothing else matters.
Yes. The education and knowledge of most of the populace is so low that this is all they see. It's far more true than it should be.
And apocalyptic "climate porn" which was already causing extreme distress with double digit americans claiming mental health issues related to the fear of a climate apocalypse.
The results from two national probability samples of U.S. adults show that 16% report at least one feature of climate change psychological distress
This is an issue with how mentally fragile far too many people are nowadays moreso than a climate problem.
Bring back spanking your kids, telling them "no", and the concept of shame.
4) In presidential races, there seems to a penalty of few percentages points if you are a woman. I don't see any other way to plausibly interpret the results of the last three presidential elections. Sure, you can argue that HRC and Kamala weren't especially strong candidates, but neither was Biden. We can debate which voter demographic is most responsible for imposing that penalty, but I'm pretty sure it isn't college-educated women.
I'm sorry but I'm not buying this. If the DNC didn't give the primary debate questions to Hillary she may have had a chance.
If the DNC held a fair primary and get this.... held an actual primary vote ( what a novel concept) they may have won.
Simple fact is that the DNC forced both of those women down our throats when no one wanted them. That's not Democracy and has nothing to do with them being women.
Yes. The education and knowledge of most of the populace is so low that this is all they see. It's far more true than it should be.
When you're having trouble surviving that's all they should see. The Democratic party is completely out of touch with how people are hurting in this economy.
It appears trump underperformed with whites and overperformed with blacks and even more so Hispanics. What kind of bizzaro world am I living in.
Wait, maybe he simply isn't a racist like at all, because nativism is a completly different thing, no matter how much democratic media wants to claim otherwise.
When you're having trouble surviving that's all they should see. The Democratic party is completely out of touch with how people are hurting in this economy.
Yes and no. I get that would be the top focus for that person, but they should strive to find the root causes and do enough research to see what the correct solution to their problem is, not just economy bad, vote other guy.
When you're having trouble surviving that's all they should see. The Democratic party is completely out of touch with how people are hurting in this economy.
If it was that, then republicans incumbents in congress would have faced big problems, because it's incumbents that get the blame for the economy.
But they didn't.
People just think democrats are worse for the economy (and they are right) , they vote based on that even if they are in decent shape financially
If it was that, then republicans incumbents in congress would have faced big problems, because it's incumbents that get the blame for the economy.
But they didn't.
People just think democrats are worse for the economy (and they are right) , they vote based on that even if they are in decent shape financially
There are 535 people in Congress - only one President. People blame the figurehead's party in power because that's who they see the most in the news.
amazing comments in this thread
There are 535 people in Congress - only one President. People blame the figurehead's party in power because that's who they see the most in the news.
You claim a lot of people suffer in this economy. Imagine you live in Texas and suffer in this economy, and your local leaders are all republicans. Why would you only blame the president (and it's party) for what happens locally to you?
It appears trump underperformed with whites and overperformed with blacks and even more so Hispanics. What kind of bizzaro world am I living in.
Rich, educated whites didn't realize that brown people aren't as woke as they thought. They also didn't realize that brown people were smart enough to figure out that someone who has dark skin isn't necessarily African American.
You claim a lot of people suffer in this economy. Imagine you live in Texas and suffer in this economy, and your local leaders are all republicans. Why would you only blame the president (and it's party) for what happens locally to you?
Because they're the figurehead leader of the entire government. Same reason why the CEO of a company is blamed instead of the local division employees.
Hey Nato... HERE'S DONNY!
Here is my post-mortem:
It wasn't any one thing. As usual, it was a bunch of things.
1) The Democratic brand clearly isn't resonating well enough with people on the economic margins. I don't know whether the people on the margins who have drifted away from the Democrats have any confidence that Trump will address their concerns. I suspect most do not, but at a minimum, their lack of confidence in Democrats on this issue made them more open to voting for Trump for other reasons.
2) I/P was a
Very good points.
As for #4, I agree- I think this is about as causal as we can ever get with the viability of candidate traits (ethnicity, gender, sexuality) given that presidential elections only come around every four years and the cultural winds are ever shifting. It's shameful that we as Americans have such a condescending attitude towards women.
What about the viability of a gay white man like Buttigieg?
If COVID never happened Trump probably loses. The economy is the only reason he won as the middle class is essentially the poor class after massive inflation the past couple years. When your expenses rise 20%-25% and your income remains the same there's a huge problem. A lot of people struggling right now and you don't hear from them - they came out to the polls and Kamala got destroyed.
this is just classic blame game...
If COVID never happened Trump probably loses. The economy is the only reason he won as the middle class is essentially the poor class after massive inflation the past couple years. When your expenses rise 20%-25% and your income remains the same there's a huge problem. A lot of people struggling right now and you don't hear from them - they came out to the polls and Kamala got destroyed.
If covid never happens Trump can't lose in 2020 for normal incumbency reasons with a good economy. Late 2019 was one of the best economies in american history (not because of Trump, but he would have reaped that benefit)
BWahahahahaha...
Disclaimer: I say this as a lifelong registered Democrat.
Every single election there is a Coordi on this site that tries to think up the reasons that Hispanics are so dumb as to vote for the other candidate. People like you are the reason that the Dems are going to keep losing elections and especially lose their grip on minority voters.
I am a Hispanic male. I don't personally know any illegal immigrants, much less have any friends or family that are in danger of being deported.
This is sincerely the best post I've seen on this site in a long time. It explains how the dems constantly trying to use identity politics being their biggest downfall in a much better way than I ever could
uvalde shifted hard republican
If anywhere thought giving cops unlimited power was a brilliant idea, good lord.
