Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
Trump wasn't prepared when he won in 2016, trusted the wrong people and was overwhelmed. This time he has a dream team around him to start and had the last 4 years to prepare. A new golden era has begun.
Prediction? Pain.
I predict people still won't understand the difference between sex and gender, despite it REALLY not being very complicated.
I think people understand, they just reject the progressive concept of gender fluidity. Gender being socially constructed means society gets to decide what it is. And society decides they dont want there to be infinite genders, where you get to switch back and forth depending on how you feel that day.
Trump wasn't prepared when he won in 2016, trusted the wrong people and was overwhelmed. This time he has a dream team around him to start and had the last 4 years to prepare. A new golden era has begun.
I dont really agree with this framing. But that being said, the glass half full case for optimism is that because he was endorsed by actual adults this time around, they will be able to place competent people around him that he will listen to. I dont know if this is how it will play out, but that is the case.
I dont really agree with this framing. But that being said, the glass half full case for optimism is that because he was endorsed by actual adults this time around, they will be able to place competent people around him that he will listen to. I dont know if this is how it will play out, but that is the case.
The actual adults will use their political capital / influence to keep the economy going strong. Bill Ackman et al want to make $$ and are good at it.
For the rest it will be a playground, Kennedy is a landmine ready to explode for example, political prosecution of people even without cause might happen and so on.
But the economy matters a lot more than all the rest combined so i think overall things will be fine
I dont really agree with this framing. But that being said, the glass half full case for optimism is that because he was endorsed by actual adults this time around, they will be able to place competent people around him that he will listen to. I dont know if this is how it will play out, but that is the case.
Who are these actual adults? Names, dates, places please. Musk (lol)?
The entire fossil fuel industry for example, just to name one of the many interest groups that is allin in favor of Trump.
Then the Wynn, the Adelson and of course Bill Ackman.
If you mean politicians, plenty of republican senators are actual adults.
The entire fossil fuel industry for example, just to name one of the many interest groups that is allin in favor of Trump.
Then the Wynn, the Adelson and of course Bill Ackman.
If you mean politicians, plenty of republican senators are actual adults.
So, the same people as last time then? Who are these new adults that Dunyain was talking about?
How is Ackman going to be involved in Trump placing decent people around him? Do you think he will be a part of the administration?
I'm not at all confident that Trump will have better people in the administration than last time, and relatively confident that he will have worse people, since everyone has now seen first hand how he treats his employees, so nobody except complete hacks with no reputation to speak of is going to want to work for him. Did you notice that a significant number of people who worked with or for him last time spoke up to say how terrible he was?
Bill Ackman, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, David Sacks, Doug Leone, Shaun Maguire, Stephen Schwarzmann, etc.
There are a lot of very powerful captains of industry that actually came out and supported Trump, and it wasn't because they support Project 2025 or Evangelicalism. The glass half full case for optimism is this group will have influence (either direct or indirect) in Trump's presidency for the positive. I dont know if this is what will happen, but it is a case.
No big deal, what's a little political prosecution without cause between friends? I could swear it was only yesterday that all the right wingers here were telling us that this is tantamount to cOmMuNiSm. But not when Trump does it, I guess.
Uncertainty still not over, it truly makes a MASSIVE difference if democrats somewhat get the house (10% odds currently) or not.
It also makes a massive difference how much leeway republicans have in the senate, in the sense that at least 2 republican senators are not going to rubberstamp everything, so 52-48 is materially a lot different from say 55-45.
Assume for the purpose of the question that Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, and something like 53-47 in the Senate.
November 5, 2024 will go down in infamy as Liberation Day in America and the DS will continue to be dismantled around the world.
How is Ackman going to be involved in Trump placing decent people around him? Do you think he will be a part of the administration?
I'm not at all confident that Trump will have better people in the administration than last time, and relatively confident that he will have worse people, since everyone has now seen first hand how he treats his employees, so nobody except complete hacks with no reputation to speak of is going to want to work for him. Did you notice that a significant number of peopl
Who do you think will be called to discuss everything from secretary of the treasury to all other relevant economic positions?
Who do you think will be called to discuss everything from secretary of the treasury to all other relevant economic positions?
You think Trump is going to be hiring people based on competence? Optimistic.
I'd imagine blind loyalty and willingness to do anything that Trump wants, no matter how unethical or illegal, are the primary criteria that Trump will be using when hiring for his administration.
No big deal, what's a little political prosecution without cause between friends? I could swear it was only yesterday that all the right wingers here were telling us that this is tantamount to cOmMuNiSm. But not when Trump does it, I guess.
Auhtoritarianism , and it's bad. It won't be ever as bad as covid atrocities by the dem though, you still have to pick the lesser evil in politics.
But yes there is a marxist (or more exactly Leninist) impulse in MAGA, you can see it in Bannon more than in the others , and it's not funny.
Of course it's still but a small shadow vs the structural collectivism of a lot of the democratic party and their base.
You think Trump is going to be hiring people based on competence? Optimistic.
I'd imagine blind loyalty and willingness to do anything that Trump wants, no matter how unethical or illegal, are the primary criteria that Trump will be using when hiring for his administration.
I think for relevant economical matters yes, as he did the first round, and as i said that matters a lot more than all of the rest combined.
They are all greedy enough to care about the economy (at least, about asset prices).
Guess the only real question is how many people will he actually go after? He blusters a lot about that. Sometimes he backs off, but he definitely *wants* to it's just how much he can get away with it.
ACA probably dead, Ukraine at least partially gone to russia, gaza has some nice beachfront property, Abortion ban nationally on the table though R's want that more than trump does but he can do whatever he wants nobody is gonna do a damn thing about it. What are they gonna do impeach him again because he again does stuff he shouldn't be doing? lol
Guess the only real question is how many people will he actually go after? He blusters a lot about that. Sometimes he backs off, but he definitely *wants* to it's just how much he can get away with it.
ACA probably dead, Ukraine at least partially gone to russia, gaza has some nice beachfront property, Abortion ban nationally on the table though R's want that more than trump does but he can do whatever he wants nobody is gonna do a damn thing about it. What are they gonna do impeach him a
Ukraine is gone sure.
No abortion national ban is possible, requires legislative filibuster i think (and anyway unconstitutional under dobbs)
Ukraine is gone sure.
No abortion national ban is possible, requires legislative filibuster i think (and anyway unconstitutional under dobbs)
congress R's would nuke it for that, also R scotus will rule in favor of it regardless of constitutional or not.
anyway, Nato dead forgot about that or at least europe only nato
muslim ban returns with mass deportations
Largely dependent on whether or not Republicans keep the house.
congress R's would nuke it for that, also R scotus will rule in favor of it regardless of constitutional or not.
anyway, Nato dead forgot about that or at least europe only nato
muslim ban returns with mass deportations
I strongly disagree with the notion that this SCOTUS would rule in favor of it . the 3 libs + roberts + gorsuch wouldn't, because of Dobbs (i mean the 3 libs wouldn't regardless, but they would smartly appeal to Dobbs to guarantee the 5 votes).
Gorsuch and Roberts voted in favor of extending civil right act protection to homosexuals and trans people
