NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

Tonight

Thank you

SMU is at 50% from Vegas

Their loss to BYU is weird. According to power rankings, a top-10 team should win that game at home 83% of the time, so it's a bad but not horrible loss. But, BYU is going to be a "top-10" or "top-15" team based on their resume, which is very good. So not clear how the committee treats it.

Among their other games, a top-10 team would be at least a SEVENTEEN POINT FAVORITE in every game except @ Louisville, where they'd be -3

A top-10 team would go undefeated 30% of the time against this slate, and finish with 1-loss 42% of the time

But it might not look as bad to the casual eye if both Louisville and Pitt finish ranked

As it stands, they're 64% to win out, and if they win out they are guaranteed a spot in the ACCCG

They're 31% to finish with 1 loss, which would be to BC, Virginia or Cal

Clemson is 45% to run the table. SMU beat Louisville, so they win the tiebreak over Clemson even if their loss is to UVA (who Clemson beat).

If Pitt wins out, that would KO Clemson, and SMU wins h2h there as well

If MIAMI also loses a game, they also beat Louisville, so I think Clemson still loses the tiebreak

Right now a Miami/SMU final is about 65/35 in favor of Miami (Side note, I have a ton on SMU to win the ACC last week at +700 and this week at +270. +270 is 27%. I think SMU is 95% to make the final and 35% to win, so 33% to title)

So SMU's outs are:
64% undefeated 35% win title = 22%
31% lose 1, make title like 98%, win 35% = 11%
31% lose 1, make title 98%, lose 65%, I think they are basically dead

So the huge question mark is this scenario:
64% undefeated, 65% lose title and finish 11-2. This accounts for 42 percentage points, and I don't know how often they go here
It's weird because before playing the title game, they'd probably be in the playoffs, so it's just a negative freeroll (though playing the game gives them a chance at the bye)
It's even weirder if Pitt is 11-1 or Clemson is 10-2 with a strong finish say beating a ranked South Carolina SEC team in the finale.
I think if Pitt and Clemson both lose, it's a lot easier to stomach putting them in as the second ACC team over like the sixth SEC team or whatever.

We have 33% where they're a lock so to get to Vegas' 50%, that would be them advancing in 17/42 in this scenario (40% of the time) which doesn't seem crazy

G5 spot:

MWC opponent is 51% UNLV 49% Colorado State (who ducks both Boise and UNLV)
Boise would be 75% at home against UNLV and 95% against CSU

So in order:

1 Boise wins out (78%) and wins MWC = 66%
2 Boise loses a game (20%) and wins MWC = 17%

3 Tulane wins out (42%), gets the home game (~60%) and beats Army (67%) = 17%
4 Tulane wins out (42%), away game (~40%) and beats Army = 8%
5 Tulane loses to not Navy (11%), beats army = 6%
6 Tulane loses to just Navy (36%), Navy loses again (61%), beats Army = 11%

7 Army goes undefeated = 2%
8 Army loses to ND, undefeated in AAC, wins = 30%
9 Army loses to 1 conf opponent (37%) and also ND (93%) and wins AAC = 17%
10 Army loses to 1 conf opponent, beats ND, wins AAC = 1%

11 UNLV wins out (58%), CSU loses a game (77%), UNLV beats Boise (25%) = 11%

12 Louisiana runs the table (50%) wins SBC (65%) = 33%

So I would rank these
1
7
3 - 4 vs 11, I think 3-4 > 11?
10
2 vs 8, I think 2 > 8?
5 - 6 - 9
12

I think this happened in 2014 too. I told my family They are about to announce the results and they all ran to the tv to find out I meant the first CFP ranking. The Democrats' exit strategy came later.

this is wrong

4 way tie, ohio state goes bc best overall record of opponents

then 3 way tie oregon -indiana - psu, they all have 1 loss, they all lost to a mutually played team, so then it starts at the top and oregon goes bc they beat ohio state and the other 2 lost

How often does Indiana get a second loss in the big ten championship game?

Extremely difficult for them to lose to OSU and make it to the championship game

The only viable path where they lose a game, make the B1G championship game, then lose there is losing to Michigan, beating Ohio State and Purdue (2.9%) then losing to Oregon in the chip

In that scenario, they're still in the playoffs since they beat OSU

My committee projections:

1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Ohio State
4 Miami
5 tennessee
6 Texas
7 Indiana
8 Alabama
9 Penn State
10 BYU
11 SMU
12 Notre Dame
13 Iowa State
14 Texas A&M
15 LSU
16 Boise State
17 Kansas State
18 Ole Miss
19 Clemson
20 Pitt
21 Colorado
22 Vanderbilt
23 South Carolina
24 Missouri
25 Iowa

If reincarnation exists, I want to come back as a man who is 40.

Zeroing in on ISU, specifically the case where they win out, go 11-1 and then lose in the B12CG

Interested bc Vegas has them +250 (29%) to playoff and +275 (27%) to win the B12

They're 20% to win out, so there's probably a 9% chance they win out and lose the B12cg

They'd have wins over @ Iowa and K State

There are 16 teams ahead of them

Assume all chalk, then you have 5 autobids

Oregon
Georgia
Miami
BYU
Boise

Then you have exactly 8 at-larges in front of them

Ohio State
Texas
PSU
Tennessee
Indiana
ND
Bama/LSU winner
and then SMU might also be in the same spot with two ranked wins and a CG loss

And then you have 3 teams they'd jump:
Bama/LSU loser
Ole Miss
ATM

So you have to jump two of those at-larges. 36% is SMU loses a game first, 56% ND loses a game, and 44% the Bama/LSU winner loses a game

But then you also have to fade Ole Miss (34%) winning out and jumping you as well as ATM (17%).

And, not clear a Bama/LSU winner that drops another game finishes behind you. 11-1 ISU is certainly ahead of 9-3 Bama, and then I think losing the B12CG won't drop them past, but it's hard to say.

So you need 4/10 things to go your way roughly, which I have at 48%

So, probably 4% of the 9% you win out then lose the CG you're in, which is 31%, but then the 27% might have a little juice in it so yeah not a great bet I guess

Almost exactly the same calculus for SMU

27% to win conference (which again, I think is a bit low)

42% to win out and lose the conf champ game

48% to get 4 of the 10 things you need to get an at large, 42% * 48% = 20%

27% + 20% = 47%, Vegas is pricing 43%

Wazzu is actually still barely alive. Most of the teams directly ahead of them are B12 teams that all play each other

They need the B12/ACC to cannibalize themselves and produce 1 team each which isn't crazy
Pitt/Clemson winner loses a game, SMU loses a game then the ACCCG
Colorado (ideally to Texas Tech!), ISU, KSU all drop a random game, then BYU seals the deal in the chip

They'll jump 3 loss ATM and Ole Miss when they lose

and then they just need the Bama/LSU winner to lose a game or ND to drop one, or Tenn/PSU/Indy (Washington upsetting PSU could be a double whammy) to implode or something

They're 52% to win out as of now

The Texas Tech and Washington wins and Boise loss are looking better and better

Looks like Georgia is 53-3 over their last 56, all 3 losses to Bama, of course. I wonder if there is much precedence for that. Remember a good one back in the day ... Oklahoma went 11-1 three straight years in the '80s with all three losses to the Miami dynasty.

not sure if relevant but suggest checking out ou-nu starting from the 70s

1987-90 Miami was 2-2 vs Notre Dame and 42-2 against the rest with some tough schedules.

I have 1.56 expected, Vegas has 1.62

Easiest path is Miami wins out (66%) and loses in the chip (~35%) = 23%

SMU winning out (64%) and losing in the chip (65%) is 42%, but they sometimes get left out

Other 2 paths are Clemson winning out (40%) or Pit (1%) and hoping for modest chaos

All 4 teams in tonight's games are dead to conference titles, but playing for bowl eligibility. Not much excitement there

Tomorrow, Cal looks for our first ACC win after losing our first 4 games by a combined 9 points. We're favored in the next 3 before going to SMU in the finale

Iowa / UCLA is the only game that slightly matters. They're favored in their last 3, and if they finish 9-3 and ranked, that would be very helpful for ISU and I guess modestly helpful for OSU. UCLA is very underrated at 3-5. They have faced the toughest schedule in the country and performed decently well. Two road wins in a row after a 1-5 start gives them momentum. They've got three games left, Iowa, @ Washington, v USC and v Fresno, and need to go 3-1 to make a bowl.

Memphis is hanging on by a thread given their h2h loss to Navy. They basically need to win out, then hope Navy also beats Tulane at home, but that Navy also loses this weekend at USF (they are -3).

SDSU is still alive in the MWC race. They need to win out (including @ UNLV) and then hope CSU loses a game.

Good guess but it kind of won't work. OU owned the series for a decade after the NU back-to-back titles and their Game of the Century win in '71, sure enough, remember it well was an OU fan ... but NU wasn't having any one loss seasons. So it won't work. OU went 9-1 in that stretch in the series and would have won it 10 straight years if not for two late 4Q fumbles by Heisman winner Billy Sims in '78. 10 fumbles, 6 lost for the crazy wishboning Sooners in that one. They were a trip.

we had season tickets to OU from '78 until leaving the state in '85 (yes, i missed it).

So ECU kept starting Garcia over Houser...why?

Best games per timeslot on Saturday:

Noon:
4 Miami @ GT
Florida @ 5 Texas
WVU @ Cincy

3:30
3 UGA @ 16 Ole Miss
Michigan @ 8 Indiana
17 Iowa State @ Kansas
20 Colorado @ Texas Tech
23 Clemson @ VT
25 Army @ UNT

7:30
11 Alabama @ 15 LSU
Washington @ 6 Penn State
UCF @ ASU
Oklahoma @ 24 Mizzou
UVA @ 18 Pitt

10:
9 BYU @ Utah
Utah State @ 21 Wazzu

I'm sick of Notre Dame getting to schedule creampuffs like Florida State. NOT FAIR

Cal now has a positive point differential in ACC games (0-4, 5 minutes into game 5)