2024 ELECTION THREAD

2024 ELECTION THREAD

The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?

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14 July 2022 at 02:28 PM
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by Victor k

and imo, they are a very good representation of the middle class, middle aged, liberal mind.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?



'The Republicans are out of touch the modern realities'


I wonder which cabinet position Laura Loomer will get. In case you're unfamiliar, she's the Jewish wannabe white nationalist who traveled around the country with Trump and was rejected by white nationalists for being Jewish, aka the Clayton Bigsby of MAGA:

Here's a segment on her:


If after the election, you could somehow sift through the votes and discard those that were made by someone who could not answer the questions "what is a veto" and "a trillion is how many millions", what would the adjusted popular vote percentages be?


by MSchu18 k

'The Republicans are out of touch the modern realities'

Interchangeable with the 2020 map:



by David Sklansky k

If after the election, you could somehow sift through the votes and discard those that were made by someone who could not answer the questions "what is a veto" and "a trillion is how many millions", what would the adjusted popular vote percentages be?

15% tops


by wheatrich k

well, she isn't *that* unpopular, most of her unpopularity is because she was biden's vp and not enough people supported the biden presidency

That, or people generally won't trust someone incapable of forming a coherent sentence or taking a difficult question (let alone answering one) with the nuclear codes


by David Sklansky k

If after the election, you could somehow sift through the votes and discard those that were made by someone who could not answer the questions "what is a veto" and "a trillion is how many millions", what would the adjusted popular vote percentages be?

I'm not going to offer a guess at the breakdown, but I'm comfortable guessing that a minimum of 70% of the votes would be eliminated.

I might make it 65% if you changed the second question to "how many zeros are in a trillion" instead. As asked you're asking them to not only know that but having to avoid a math goofup.

And yes, I realize I may be being too generous. Probably way too generous but I'm around a lot of intelligent people and can be biased.


Only £251m matched on Betfair shows the decline in UK gambling in the last 4 years imo. I think it was over £2bn matched for Biden vs Trump, although that one did drag on for a while after and picked up the majority of the bets in the following week. They still havent settled this one yet, twats. Most other sites in the UK seem to have paid out on Trump.


by MSchu18 k

'The Republicans are out of touch the modern realities'

When you understand population density maps


by pocket_zeros k

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

And why is someone not random because they have a lot of posts on 2+2?


by Gonzirra k

I'm not going to offer a guess at the breakdown, but I'm comfortable guessing that a minimum of 70% of the votes would be eliminated.

I might make it 65% if you changed the second question to "how many zeros are in a trillion" instead. As asked you're asking them to not only know that but having to avoid a math goofup.

And yes, I realize I may be being too generous. Probably way too generous but I'm around a lot of intelligent people and can be biased

You guys aren't answering the question that David is asking. He wants you to speculate on how the election would have turned out if those votes were eliminated. This is just another offshoot of his musings on whether the country would be better off if we somehow screened voters for competency or had a magic button that we could push to eliminate categories of voters.


by wheatrich k

well, she isn't *that* unpopular, most of her unpopularity is because she was biden's vp and not enough people supported the biden presidency

everyone else people would've preferred lose at least the EC as well obviously

Look at her great support during the 2020 Democratic primaries. She got roughly 1%. Yes she is that unpopular. Do not mistake being made VP because she claimed to be black and a woman or being installed by the Democratic elites as their nominee as showing popularity. Indeed the fact the Democrats deliberately waited until after the primaries to install her shows how well they thought she would do in the primaries.


by coordi k

I disagree with your framing of latinos


by Rococo k

I just spent about thirty minutes looking at the exit polls (as reported by the Washington Post) for 2020 compared to 2024. Here are the things that jumped out at me:

Kamala lost 12 percentage points compared to Biden among Hispanic/Latino voters and 18 percentage points among male Hispanic/Latino voters. This is a huge shift, and I would be curious to see more granularity on these numbers. I don't think Hispanic/Latino voters are culturally homogenous enough to constitute a single demographic

Interesting stuff!

Regarding lower wage earners abandoning Harris, we have to attribute that to inflation, right? Among the people that I know in those two wage brackets that have spoken politics lately, such as paralegals and other support staff at the law firm I work with, there is constant griping about the costs of living and how they feel like they can never get ahead. An early 20s assistant in my office said that this is the hardest time to be a young person in history. Thinking back to when I was her age during the height of the Great Recession, I was making about $45K and was paying $700 in rent for a pretty small one bedroom apartment in a decent area. OTOH, about fifteen years later, she is making around the same salary that I was back then, but the same exact apartment is currently renting for $1600, going up from $1200 in late 2021. Not only do young people feel like they can't buy a house and get ahead, but some of them feel like they can't even live on their own, even though they are well past the age where they should have moved out of their parents' houses.

If firmly believe that if the Biden economy was more favorable, people would have forgiven a lot of the perceived drawbacks with the Harris ticket that people are pointing out in this thread. OTOH, when the cost of housing goes up 30-50%, the price of beef doubles, and the price of eggs triples, all over a relatively short time-frame, voters won't forgive nor do they forget.


by David Sklansky k

If after the election, you could somehow sift through the votes and discard those that were made by someone who could not answer the questions "what is a veto" and "a trillion is how many millions", what would the adjusted popular vote percentages be?

Much higher for Trump. Removes all fraud and Democrats do extremely well in the parasite class vote.


by DonkJr k

Interesting stuff!

Regarding lower wage earners abandoning Harris, we have to attribute that to inflation, right? Among the people that I know in those two wage brackets that have spoken politics lately, such as paralegals and other support staff at the law firm I work with, there is constant griping about the costs of living and how they feel like they can never get ahead. An early 20s assistant in my office said that this is the hardest time to be a young person in history. Thinking back to

My first reaction is that I don't know how you are able to find full-time paralegals who will work for less than $22 per hour.

But in response to your actual question, yes, I'm sure inflation is a signficant factor. I also think it is politically easy, albeit disingenuous, to blame unemployment and underemployment on illegal immigration.


by Polarbear1955 k

Much higher for Trump. Removes all fraud and Democrats do extremely well in the parasite class vote.

So these questions are intended to isolate the "parasite class"? Charming.


by David Sklansky k

If after the election, you could somehow sift through the votes and discard those that were made by someone who could not answer the questions "what is a veto" and "a trillion is how many millions", what would the adjusted popular vote percentages be?

idk but you're eliminating 80% of the votes, and that's being generous.


by coordi k

Incredible levels of brainwashing. Its literally what I've been saying all along. Incredibly likely that Russia refined its propaganda machine and we are just ****ed for the foreseeable future because a significant portion of our population has negative critical thinking skill

Chances are that you've bought into some of it yourself. Back in the 70s, the KGB funded both the KKK and the Black Panthers. Why? Because the goal is to divide. Create chaos and restore "order." If MAGA is angry, make them angrier and push them further to the right. How do you do that? Promote things like DEI, CRT, defunding the police, gender affirming care for minors and drag queens at schools. The Russian bot armies are out there promoting far-left politics as well, and they were probably pushing the fringes of BLM just as much as MAGA.


by Rococo k

My first reaction is that I don't know how you are able to find full-time paralegals who will work for less than $22 per hour.

But in response to your actual question, yes, I'm sure inflation is a signficant factor. I also think it is politically easy, albeit disingenuous, to blame unemployment and underemployment on illegal immigration.

I believe paralegals where I am at make somewhere in the $60K to $75K range, while assistants/secretaries make somewhere between $35K and $50K. The secret seems to be to hire them young. The majority of the assistants are in their early 20s.

I don't think illegal immigration has a significant effect on unemployment or underemployment. I do think that a lot of younger people feel entitled to a white collar existence, so they are not even considering taking on those more labor-intensive jobs that you often see immigrants doing (such as roofing, drywall, house cleaning, etc.) That's probably a different thread.


by DonkJr k

I don't think illegal immigration has a significant effect on unemployment or underemployment.

Agreed. That's why I said it was a disingenuous political argument, even if it persuades some people.


by Polarbear1955 k

Look at her great support during the 2020 Democratic primaries. She got roughly 1%. Yes she is that unpopular. Do not mistake being made VP because she claimed to be black and a woman or being installed by the Democratic elites as their nominee as showing popularity. Indeed the fact the Democrats deliberately waited until after the primaries to install her shows how well they thought she would do in the primaries.

She dropped out before the first primary which probably explains why she got 1% of the vote. Elections over, no need for more dishonesty.


by zers k

Chances are that you've bought into some of it yourself. Back in the 70s, the KGB funded both the KKK and the Black Panthers. Why? Because the goal is to divide. Create chaos and restore "order." If MAGA is angry, make them angrier and push them further to the right. How do you do that? Promote things like DEI, CRT, defunding the police, gender affirming care for minors and drag queens at schools. The Russian bot armies are out there promoting far-left politics as well, and they were probably pu

I'm certain I'm affected. Its impossible to navigate an endless bombardment of propaganda and misinformation and not get hit with some shrapnel.

And the bot farms are absolutely pushing the fringe on both sides. This is quite literally what I mean when I say people like Victor and Elrazor have been lied to and have fallen victim to lies and propaganda. There is this perception that everything we see on the internet is real when I would be surprised if even 50% of what we see has a firm placement in reality.


by Rococo k

You guys aren't answering the question that David is asking. He wants you to speculate on how the election would have turned out if those votes were eliminated. This is just another offshoot of his musings on whether the country would be better off if we somehow screened voters for competency or had a magic button that we could push to eliminate categories of voters.

Yes. I am asking what the percentage of allowed votes would go to Harris. Meanwhile even I don't think the remaining votes would only be 15 or 20%. Not when the majority of eleven-year-olds could answer both questions. (And 100% of two plus twoers, dumb as they often are.) If the true answer really is 20% then why are so many posters wasting their time explaining why a candidate's simplistic proposals are flawed when they are analyzed more deeply?

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