Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
Here’s an interesting thing to think about/predict: who all do you think will be the first person Trump drops? I can’t imagine him wanting to share the spotlight with Elon or RFK Jr for much longer.
should we talk about his third term here or make a new thread for it?
Trump won't need Congress to take some action on abortion. He can roll back some of Biden's executive action. He can attempt to use the Comstock Act to reduce access. He can appoint an FDA administrator who can revoke access to Mifepristone, his Attorney and Solicitor General will decide what cases the govt brings to the Supreme Court. I'm not sure what exactly will happen with all this, but his administration is going to do something. Besides, the real hinderances have always come at the state level with their TRAP laws, which never got enough attention. Abortion was already mostly banned in some red states prior to the Dobbs ruling.
The civil service will be reduced to a relatively few Trump acolytes. NOAA, Dept of Education will cease to function.
He will appoint between 1-3 more SC Justices. I think one or both of Alito/Thomas may step down before his term is up. Or they could wait to see if Don Jr or whoever wins 2028.
Ironically, some of his MAGA White House office appointees (chief of staff, etc) will indeed have to secretly reign him in and distract him from doing crazy things a bit the same way the previous officials did in his first term, because of the severe personality disorders of the cluster B variety he has. Because if they don't, he'll do things like tear up NAFTA and drop out of NATO during lunchtime one day. He needs to be babysat. The US will change dramatically, but the country won't collapse and the bureaucracy won't cease to exist.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict will not end anytime soon, maybe a temporary ceasefire in spring 2025, although it won't last and US support for Ukraine will wane. The Russians will show some restraint for a while in their other active measures work as they let Trump harm American alliances and institutions. Trump will start detente with Russia and diplomatic relations will resume as they were before Crimea was annexed. And some sanctions relief. We'll see.
Now that the Democrats are unable to compete in Senate elections in dark red Ohio and Florida, they will never reach 50 Senators ever again, at least 10+ years. Not unless left-leaning voters start moving to North Dakota, Arkansas, etc. Montana and West Virginia are gone forever (Tester was a really good candidate for MT as was Manchin for WV and Sherrod Brown for Ohio) and Georgia having two D Senators was an anomaly. Not to menton, it's not like AZ/PN/WI/MI are blue; they're purple states where Republicans can win. The only possible gain in 2026 is Maine with Collins but she's very popular there. That's not even a winnable race most likely. Texas, NC, are dark red states until Democrats can actually win something there, and I'll believe that when it actually happens. The Republicans will get 60 Senators before the Democrats get 50. Dropping the Trumpy MAGA candidates was wise. Arizona probably would have went Red if they had followed suit.
No a number of them are 70 and older. I'm absolutely not wishing death on anyone but...you know old age. As I said, I expect 1 or both of Alito/Thomas to step down.
My one big prediction for this term:
All of Trump's technogarch 'friends', led by Thiel, will eventually turn on him and 25th or kneecap him via health concerns, getting their boy JD to sitting president.
78 is old
82 is older
People can deteriorate crazy fast. Odds of him dying are what? Actuary anywhere?
The senate block henry describes is pretty wild. Similar to democrats holding house & senate post ww2 right?
I hereby nominate and predict General Smith will become President Trump's Joint Chiefs of Staff for his hard work and dedication in this war against the Global Deep State Cabal that infiltrated our country. I would be astonished if he selected anyone else, but that's just me (ifyyk).
Project 2025 starts in earnest on January 20, 2025
I haven't made any predictions in my own thread yet, but if I had a gun to my head to make some nontrivial one it's that either Trump or other actors behind the scenes will definitely be pushing to implement some or maybe even all of what was on the Project 2025 agenda, especially some of the more egregiously antidemocratic/authoritarian stuff. So, you think you're being all cute and jokey, but we'll see.
I haven't made any predictions in my own thread yet, but if I had a gun to my head to make some nontrivial one it's that either Trump or other actors behind the scenes will definitely be pushing to implement some or maybe even all of what was on the Project 2025 agenda.
In order to determine if your prediction is accurate or not, you'll need to better define or expand on "some".
I'm sure there's some rather innocuous stuff in there that will happen.
78 is old
82 is older
People can deteriorate crazy fast. Odds of him dying are what? Actuary anywhere?
The senate block henry describes is pretty wild. Similar to democrats holding house & senate post ww2 right?
he's probably more likely to get shot than die of old age in the next few years.
democracy ceases to exist and the sky turns green
I'm not a Christian, but I've read the bible, and it's all set out in Revelation 13:
1 And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.
2 And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.
3 And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
4 And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?
5 And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.
6 And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.
7 And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.
8 And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.
9 If any man have an ear, let him hear.
10 He that leadeth into captivity shall go into captivity: he that killeth with the sword must be killed with the sword. Here is the patience and the faith of the saints.
11 And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon.
12 And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.
13 And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,
14 And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live.
15 And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.
16 And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:
17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.
