2024 Trading Thread
Well, 2023 went really well with less than market risk so well done me.
First trade of 2024 is $CPRI which is being taken over by $TPR at $57 cash.
FTC is looking into the merger and has asked for a second review, but it's really hard to see them being made a bigger laughingstock over actually trying to block a midtier leather bag and expensive shoe merger than the giant laughingstock they were made over the ATVI deal.
Deal is supposed to close ~end of Q1 now since FTC asked for more info. 14% deal spread is a nice annualized rate. It's a $6bn deal so you can buy all you want.
Tapestry has already raised the required funds in the bond market. No chance they try to [or can] void the deal with a MAC clause in Delaware.
Obv risk is deal breaking, stock probably drops to $35ish. Market is too pessimistic on this deal which is the issue.
what do you trade?
I started to study years ago, but didn't had success. Took a time off, started to study and trade again a few years later, one more time I failed . Then, started again, and failed again.
Then decided I would become a poker player. (Had studied for some time in past). I studied for some months and made it up to 25NL. Then, I decided to try trading again because of the higher income potential.
I was determined to succeed. Took some time just studying and started to trade.
Around the 5° month of tra
If you havent you should read "Trading in the Zone" and "The Disciplined Trader" both by Mark Douglas. You sound like you have trouble with the mental aspects of trading. If you have a plan and methodology that fit your personality and risk parameters (and actually works on paper!) its just a question of executing that plan without all of the mental landmines that come with trading. When you are at the right edge of the chart waiting for the next bar to print emotion can easily scuttle your plans.
If you havent you should read "Trading in the Zone" and "The Disciplined Trader" both by Mark Douglas. You sound like you have trouble with the mental aspects of trading. If you have a plan and methodology that fit your personality and risk parameters (and actually works on paper!) its just a question of executing that plan without all of the mental landmines that come with trading. When you are at the right edge of the chart waiting for the next bar to print emotion can easily scuttle your p
Sure. I'll take a look.
In my opinion trading mental game is much harder than it is in poker. It's so easy to get biased. And a stop loss hits harder than a bad beat. It feels more like a personal failure, while in poker it feels just variance.
I achieved an amazing mental game in poker, and thought it would be the same in trading. But if I improved in poker I can also improve in trading.
What's your exprince regards trading?
Semi-retired (mostly retired!) trader of mostly options and futures. Started out making markets in TBond futures options in the pits at the CBOT in the 80's. Went on to trade almost anything and everything. Involved in the evolution from pits to screens. Nowadays I only trade ocassionally and mostly swing type trades rather than day trading, mostly options.
Semi-retired (mostly retired!) trader of mostly options and futures. Started out making markets in TBond futures options in the pits at the CBOT in the 80's. Went on to trade almost anything and everything. Involved in the evolution from pits to screens. Nowadays I only trade ocassionally and mostly swing type trades rather than day trading, mostly options.
Wow. That's a lot of experience. I have so much to learn.
May I know what type of approach do you use to trade?
Wow. That's a lot of experience. I have so much to learn.
May I know what type of approach do you use to trade?
I am primarily a trend follower. The trend is your friend 😀 I trade channel breakouts, momenetum and support/resistance for the most part. 100% technical trading. Also do mean reversion in trends which basically means buying dips in uptrends. This is my favored approach for equity options.
would you liken trend following in trading to steam chasing in sports betting, or are there other reasons that explain the edge in your view?
would you liken trend following in trading to steam chasing in sports betting, or are there other reasons that explain the edge in your view?
Not really. Trend/momentum is all about people bailing or switching positions while hitting stop orders that fuel the move. People taking heat capitulate and people winning pile on and the move accerarates.
I assume market will really see a few weeks of down period after election, im gonna look to buy into some safe returns when it does happen or if it happens
Can someone please explain to me why FLIC is up so much when they're in a pending merger w a stock price tethered to 12.40? I know it's up bc of the election, but I don't understand why it's up at all if the final price is known. Is this just bots moving in and out of this one? Make it make sense...
If you have time take a look at a company called Innodata. They are getting a bunch of contracts from the top 7 tech companies to help develop Large Language Models. It only has 500 million market cap. INOD.
Wowzers! When you posted this I looked into it and it looked good. I decided to jump in if it dipped. Which it did in late September. When it got below 14 I bought a couple hundred shares hoping to add more on more dip but apparently I caught the bottom and never added more. So a tiny position but my reseach was looking at a target in the low 30's. Instead of dumping here for profit I sold next Friday 35 calls at 3.00. Hope that isn't a big mistake? But its very small position so who cares. Hope I get called away as I see the biggest risk is a selloff back into the 20's.
Wowzers! When you posted this I looked into it and it looked good. I decided to jump in if it dipped. Which it did in late September. When it got below 14 I bought a couple hundred shares hoping to add more on more dip but apparently I caught the bottom and never added more. So a tiny position but my reseach was looking at a target in the low 30's. Instead of dumping here for profit I sold next Friday 35 calls at 3.00. Hope that isn't a big mistake? But its very small position so who car
Oooof! I was a little quick on the trigger there 😀 Uncharted territory technically since it went way past previous highs. But way overbought and through the price projections I had where I planned to exit when it got there. Will see where the dust settles in a week or two.
Tesla rocket shipped to 320+...
An AI and Robot company going to zero on the initiating phase of a 'network effect' trade?
I am not buying that idea, nope, no siree.
As an update I'm now 100% in cash/tbills. It's something that I hate, because I do love the action.
If I find something that looks attractive, I'll post it.
Pretty bad timing! Not really trying to pick on Max here. But any time you aren't long is bad timing. If he wouda been long until now and then went to cash/tbills it woulda been better. But it would still be bad. Stay long through thick and thin unless you are a genius timer (you aren't!). The stock market goes up. It has gone up since it's inception. It may dip, it may get painful, you may take heat but eventually you will win. Buy those dips! DCA over time and reinvest dividends and you are set.
But it's different this time! No it isn't 😀 It's never different, I'm old and I been there, Buy dips, stay long through the heat and profit. Stay long, reinvest dividends and have a happy retirement. Nuthin to it but to do it!
I get the short term excitement but it's it really worth more post election?
Latest deliveries was bad. All the AI stuff is still a flop. Falling behind BYD.
Musk is literally going to be telling DJT what to do.
EEOC investigation into discrimination at Tesla? Good bye
Fines for SpaceX leaving garbage around? Nah.
Fat contract to “modernize Fed hiring” or something? We’ll take that.
DOT wants to look a little closer at WayMo all
Of a sudden? Sounds right.
More tax credits for cars that seems to fit Tesla products and only Tesla products? You bet.
If you could have invested in Jared Kushners Middle East property portfolio would you have?
Musk is literally going to be telling DJT what to do.
EEOC investigation into discrimination at Tesla? Good bye
Fines for SpaceX leaving garbage around? Nah.
Fat contract to “modernize Fed hiring” or something? We’ll take that.
DOT wants to look a little closer at WayMo all
Of a sudden? Sounds right.
More tax credits for cars that seems to fit Tesla products and only Tesla products? You bet.
If you could have invested in Jared Kushners Middle East property portfolio would you hav
Wouldn’t surprise me Elon/ trump cooperating wouldn’t last more then a year or 2 .
Only one get to be at the helm and it’s not in trump character to play second Fiddle .
Ps: will Elon stay aside when trump will gather all the credibility and success on Elon work ?
Doubt Elon wil not get tired of it eventually…
Target earnings is concerning. Stock murdered
Wouldn’t surprise me Elon/ trump cooperating wouldn’t last more then a year or 2 .
Only one get to be at the helm and it’s not in trump character to play second Fiddle .
Ps: will Elon stay aside when trump will gather all the credibility and success on Elon work ?
Doubt Elon wil not get tired of it eventually…
I think there's two much ego involved for them to work together for long.
And there's going to be pushback from the house on Musk being viewed as too influential.
I get having Trump's ear is useful, but Tesla is the same company that slumped after their AI investor day, and is losing ground to BYD.
When I read opinions it's the same story for the last ten years: not a car company, robotaxis any day, vertically integrated energy company etc etc. The same hypetrain for the last decade trading at 100+ earnings
Look I'm an OG Elon hater for sure... but until him and Trump inevitably fall out over both being huge narcissists (it always happens at some point) expecting tsla to do anything but tend to go up is pretty crazy. Of course the reason you shouldn't buy it is the same, which is that any day now he and Trump are going to have a huge argument and break up... and when that gets reported tsla is going to be off 20%+ for the day, and that's going to happen probably to a lesser degree several more times as they exchange mean tweets like teenage girls.
Yeah pretty much as always the best way to play TSLA on a risk adjusted basis is to not play TSLA IMO. Then again I'm a mostly small cap value guy who is grateful to be up a little over 10% for 2024 so what do I know. The S&P was pretty wild this year valuation wise.
What you guys think of shorting these quantum stocks craze after the google news release. I see some of them jumped up 20x or more for no reason.
Quantum corporation is up only because it’s name lol
qubt another one
