2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Are source for "stem degree jobs from elite institutions skew democrat" (more than other jobs requiring a degree)?
But you saying the opposite requires no citation, right? I know there’s a right winger affirmative action. Handicap when it comes to thinking but let’s be clear what the rules are.
But you saying the opposite requires no citation, right? I know there’s a right winger affirmative action. Handicap when it comes to thinking but let’s be clear what the rules are.
Do you need a citation for "women with a college degree" voting propensities? do you need a citation for "men attend STEM majors relatively more often than women?
I can provide those but would you then admit that automatically would make STEM degree holders more propense to vote for trump than generic degree holders are? just because they are male more often than generic degree holders?
Nice how we moved from ecriture defending the indefensible claim that STEM degree holders don't skew republican more than the rest of degree holders, to stem degree holders from elite institutions.
That implies ecriture admits that STEM degree holders skew republican more than the rest but he hopes there is no way to ever adjudicate the claim that if they get a degree at elite institutions, that makes them more democrat-leaning (absolutely no basis at all to have that as your prior).
Nope. We don’t have much data. I was thinking it would be uncontroversial that schools that conservatives constantly crap on for being liberal indoctrination centers would atleast have liberal grads. Granted I thought a Gaussian wouldn’t be controversial in a thread with major discussions about polling and population sampling.
republican this election, so voted for trump and other republicans downballot yes.
Keep in mind there are MANY ecriture and the like, so a ton of people will claim in public to be at most a never trumper even when they are just happy with rightwing judicial nominations, tax cuts, and deportation of illegals and will vote their mind even if they can't speak it because the left horrific censorship and stultifying social "rules" make it still impossible to tell ecriture to his face that yes Trump an
But then we'll never know they voted for him, so we'll have them as voting Harris. We don't get to examine people's ballots, so we can only go by what they tell us.
Do you need a citation for "women with a college degree" voting propensities? do you need a citation for "men attend STEM majors relatively more often than women?
I can provide those but would you then admit that automatically would make STEM degree holders more propense to vote for trump than generic degree holders are? just because they are male more often than generic degree holders?
Again, no. Do you seriously still not get this??
But then we'll never know they voted for him, so we'll have them as voting Harris. We don't get to examine people's ballots, so we can only go by what they tell us.
No reason to believe they lie to pollsters, they are rational people with an actually useful college degree after all, they know they don't pay any social price when answering pollsters.
Unlike when they talk with ecriture types
Maybe try asking them how they think the typical English lit grad votes. Go slowly.
Nope. We don’t have much data. I was thinking it would be uncontroversial that schools that conservatives constantly crap on for being liberal indoctrination centers would atleast have liberal grads. Granted I thought a Gaussian wouldn’t be controversial in a thread with major discussions about polling and population sampling.
Conservatives crap upon those institutions TODAY because they are pro-Hamas & Marx indoctrination centers TODAY, which doesn't mean that a ton of PREVIOUS ALUMNI that graduates a while ago don't agree.
Which is why you get the Bill Ackman types saying "enough to the horrors of leftism" .
No normal distribution was "controversial", you can keep banging your head on the wall chanting it was though if that makes you happier. I am for freedom after all.
Luciom, can you put together an example with toy numbers (100 voters total or w/e) to demonstrate your point?
There are 1000 people with degrees, and you know 450 of them voted for trump. (55-45 is just an hypothetical, maybe it was 57-43 in 2024 or whatever).
200 of those people have degrees in "marxist feminist studies" and only 10 of them voted for trump.
Of the remaining 800 people 440 voted for Trump. NECESSARILY
STEM degrees are among those 800. Say they are 200. Now unless you have data to claim that the other 600 voted trump more than 44/80, STEM will distribute like them and be 44/80 pro Trump.
In any case, definitely unless spectacular data comes out about non-marxist , non stem college degree holders , STEM will be more pro trump than general degree holders, because general degree holders INCLUDE MARXIST BULLSHIT while there is no equivalent "alt right degree".
They don't have degrees in bricklaying or truck driving? That's a shame.
Joking aside, your numbers do kinda make sense, so I'm hoping you're wrong somewhere because I don't understand how a bunch of intelligent people can all go vote Trump.
Do we have this split for prior years? I'd be interested to see how the STEM vote was split in the last 4-5 elections if this data exists somewhere. Couldn't find anything with a quick google search.
Ahhh... But do you have any evidence that it's the Marxist feminist studies students that are anti-Trump? You don't. Checkmate. People who don't know how to write Gaussians are so dumb.
They don't have degrees in bricklaying or truck driving? That's a shame.
Joking aside, your numbers do kinda make sense, so I'm hoping you're wrong somewhere because I don't understand how a bunch of intelligent people can all go vote Trump.
Maybe exactly because the graduated people with the worst degrees , a load of student loand, and no good job prospect, nor any prospect of having a good family of their own, voted for Harris.
Maybe they realize how deep and painful the horrors of leftism are, and even a bad candidate on the right is preferable to those horrors.
Maybe exactly because the graduated people with the worst degrees , a load of student loand, and no good job prospect, nor any prospect of having a good family of their own, voted for Harris.
Maybe they realize how deep and painful the horrors of leftism are, and even a bad candidate on the right is preferable to those horrors.
Deep horrors of leftism aside, do you have this data for prior elections?
You don’t have any idea how non stem grads skew vs college grads overall. Honestly, this isn’t s getting embarrassing even by your standards.
Ahhh... But do you have any evidence that it's the Marxist feminist studies students that are anti-Trump? You don't. Checkmate. People who don't know how to write Gaussians are so dumb.
You don’t have any idea how non stem grads skew vs college grads overall. Honestly, this isn’t s getting embarrassing even by your standards.
Lol I called it
there are the exit polls from 2016 and 2020 and subsequent studies about that if that's what you asking for.
I suppose there are equivalent analyses before Trump as well.
Trend is in favour of democrats gaining an increasing share of college graduates through time.
One thing the left isn't going to realize/admit is that the college graduate population moving toward democrats doesn't mean people ALREADY with a degree are moving toward democrats necessarily. It can just mean that people who lean democrat are getting college degrees more often these days.
And wait, that's happening! women are graduating as never before.
It's not that republicans are LOSING a lot of people with a degree that voted for them and now don't anymore. The lady getting a trash degree in a tier 4 college, or even that getting a decent degree in a normal college, would have voted democrat anyway for a bunch of reasons, and them getting a degree because society has changed and it's required for normal jobs now unlike 30 years ago doesn't validate democrat votes as "better".
Another way to put it is, the median IQ of people getting degrees is getting lower by the day, at the same time that people with a degree are moving toward democrats more and more.
there are the exit polls from 2016 and 2020 and subsequent studies about that if that's what you asking for.
Yes, I'd like to see the % of STEM degree holders voting republican/democrat in 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2008. I couldn't find this data from a cursory search, but I don't really know where to look.
Yes, I'd like to see the % of STEM degree holders voting republican/democrat in 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2008. I couldn't find this data from a cursory search, but I don't really know where to look.
I doubt that data exists. But the gold standard studies would be using district level data and compare districts with various education levels and do some linear regression. That’s how we know college educated are leaving tge rep party. You would again think, based on where stem grads end up living thst it would not help Trump.
Yes, I'd like to see the % of STEM degree holders voting republican/democrat in 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2008. I couldn't find this data from a cursory search, but I don't really know where to look.
Oh no we don't have that, i least i don't have that.
Remember this all started with me wondering when/if that data will be available.
Anyway for 2016, this is by profession not degree but it's still interesting
Surgeons almost 70-30 republican, dentists 60-40 and the like
I doubt that data exists. But the gold standard studies would be using district level data and compare districts with various education levels and do some linear regression. That’s how we know college educated are leaving tge rep party. You would again think, based on where stem grads end up living thst it would not help Trump.
I guess you come from the "Iowa +3 for Harris" school of applied statistics , because your proposed method wouldn't inform us at all about STEM degree holders specifically.
We know the college educated are skewing more democrat (i explained why that doesn't necessarily mean people with a degree are LEAVING republicans, it can just mean people getting a degree recently are overwhelmingly democrat leaning) from polls.
We also know that is spearheaded by college educated women under 40 not married (most aren't) skewing democrat like 90-10.
Which means the rest of the population with a college degree isn't necessarily going anywhere.
